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Sorted by the chosen market’s model estimate. Higher probability does not necessarily mean better value.

← Previous dayFriday, 2 October 2026Next day →

Probability or value? Probability describes how likely an outcome is. Value also considers its price. A high percentage alone does not make a good selection; estimates and odds can change.

About these probabilities and odds

Kickoff Edge combines recorded expected goals (xG) with opponent-adjusted team strengths. The xG model blends the recent xG signal and v3 equally, using up to ten previous matches per team, weighted toward recent performances. Both teams need at least five xG matches within six months. Where xG is unavailable, the labelled team-strength model remains in use, with recent-form fallback for limited competition history. Experimental recent-form fallbacks remain research only and are excluded from probability and value recommendation filters. Missing xG is never treated as zero. Competitive cup matches between verified domestic divisions also adjust team strength for the division gap, using earlier league appearances. The initial map covers 37 leagues in eight national pyramids; unknown or cross-country tiers are not guessed. All markets share one score distribution. These are pre-match estimates, not live forecasts or guaranteed outcomes. Historical testing showed lower overall error on the tested sample, but calibration and future performance remain under review. Odds show the highest stored price for each selection; bookmaker availability and prices can change. Additional xG and multi-source challengers are evaluated separately in the model observatory before public promotion. Bookmaker price movement is recorded from collection onwards; it does not reveal betting volume.

Over 2.5 goals

1 matching fixtures · 2 Oct
Spain · Segunda División
EldenseVSOviedo
Not Started
Estimated chances · pre-match
Home30.3%Odds 2.40
Draw31.9%Odds 3.16
Away37.8%Odds 3.41
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
29.1%
2.51PinnacleSnapshot 2 Oct, 07:00

Shortening · 2.53 → 2.51 same bookmaker · observed price change

What would £100 at 2.51 mean?

Potential return £251.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £151.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 39.8%. Displayed chance: 29.1%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win30.3%2.40Betano
2 Oct, 07:00
Draw31.9%3.161xBet
2 Oct, 07:00
Away win37.8%3.41Pinnacle
2 Oct, 07:00
Over 0.5 goals84.7%1.11Bet365
2 Oct, 07:00
Under 0.5 goals15.3%8.00Betfair
2 Oct, 07:00
Over 1.5 goals56.1%1.50Bet365
2 Oct, 07:00
Under 1.5 goals43.9%2.74Pinnacle
2 Oct, 07:00
Over 2.5 goals29.1%2.51Pinnacle
2 Oct, 07:00
Under 2.5 goals70.9%1.621xBet
2 Oct, 07:00
Over 3.5 goals12.2%5.00Betfair
2 Oct, 07:00
Under 3.5 goals87.8%1.21Betano
2 Oct, 07:00
Over 4.5 goals4.2%11.00Bet365
2 Oct, 07:00
Under 4.5 goals95.8%1.07Betano
2 Oct, 07:00
Both teams to score — Yes36.9%2.10Bet365
2 Oct, 07:00
Both teams to score — No63.1%1.80Betfair
2 Oct, 07:00
Home or draw62.2%1.35William Hill
2 Oct, 07:00
Away or draw69.7%1.601xBet
2 Oct, 07:00
Home or away68.1%1.371xBet
2 Oct, 07:00
Home team to concede63.6%—
Away team to concede58.1%—
Calculated 2 Oct, 09:16 UKMatch centre →