KICKOFF EDGE · MATCH RESEARCH

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Find the markets you want to research. Compare match estimates with stored odds, check the evidence and follow the results.

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Stored research sample — freshness details

Sample read started 2026-11-07T22:41:14+00:00. Complete samples are shared for at most 15 seconds; incomplete samples for at most 5 seconds. Original model and odds timestamps are unchanged; age and kickoff checks are repeated for each view.

Reads use stored data, not live bookmaker quotes. Fixture, score, model and current-price records from one read-only database snapshot. Price-change history and competition totals are separate reads; records and prices can change after a sample was taken.

Choose a marketFilter goals, match results, BTTS or double chance.

Compare the evidenceCheck the estimate, price and data timestamp.

Follow it throughOpen the match for context or review captured selections in the record.

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Choose a shortcut, then refine the competition and minimum estimate below.

Upcoming fixtures first, then live and finished research. Model estimates and bookmaker-derived market chances are labelled separately. Delayed, postponed and cancelled records appear last.

DateCompetitionMarketMinimum estimate

← Previous daySaturday, 7 November 2026Next day →

Probability or value? Probability describes how likely an outcome is. Value also considers its price. A high percentage alone does not make a good selection; estimates and odds can change.

About these probabilities and odds

Kickoff Edge combines recorded expected goals (xG) with opponent-adjusted team strengths. The xG model blends the recent xG signal and v3 equally, using up to ten previous matches per team, weighted toward recent performances. Both teams need at least five xG matches within six months. Where xG is unavailable, the labelled team-strength model remains in use, with recent-form fallback for limited competition history. Experimental recent-form fallbacks remain research only and are excluded from probability and value recommendation filters. Missing xG is never treated as zero. Competitive cup matches between verified domestic divisions also adjust team strength for the division gap, using earlier league appearances. The initial map covers 37 leagues in eight national pyramids; unknown or cross-country tiers are not guessed. All markets share one score distribution. These are pre-match estimates, not live forecasts or guaranteed outcomes. Historical testing showed lower overall error on the tested sample, but calibration and future performance remain under review. Odds show the highest stored price for each selection; bookmaker availability and prices can change. Additional xG and multi-source challengers are evaluated separately in the model observatory before public promotion. Bookmaker price movement is recorded from collection onwards; it does not reveal betting volume.

Over 2.5 goals

1 matching fixtures · 7 Nov

England · National League15:00 UK

Gateshead—

Tamworth

Postponed

Data availability · sources & freshness

Kickoff Edge modelNot eligible for recommendations

Existing pre-match model policy: Out of date. This is separate from provider predictions and bookmaker-implied chances; stored percentages alone do not establish eligibility or accuracy.

Home: stored
Draw: stored
Away: stored

Existing model policy · no recalculation in this panel. Stored model older than 24 hours.

Model calculation: 2026-10-31T00:16:32+00:00 (UTC).

Selected-market oddsStored

A stored price exists for this selection only. It does not establish a complete market, current bookmaker availability or value.

Selected outcome: stored

Stored odds snapshot. Stored pre-match data · not a live feed.

Provider timestamp: 2026-11-07T10:31:14+00:00 (UTC).

Collected timestamp: 2026-11-07T13:42:09+00:00 (UTC).

This describes data loaded for this view, not the whole database. Unknown coverage is not unsupported coverage. A blank field is not zero or a promise that data will arrive.

Market chances · from stored odds

Home22.6%Odds 4.20

Draw24.3%Odds 3.72

Away53.1%Odds 1.70

Selected market · market chanceOver 2.5 goals

61.2%

1.48MarathonbetProvider 7 Nov, 10:31 UK

Price-history coverage has a gap for this bookmaker and selection; no continuous change is shown.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	22.6%	4.20William Hill 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Draw	24.3%	3.72Marathonbet 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Away win	53.1%	1.70Marathonbet 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Over 0.5 goals	—	—
Under 0.5 goals	—	—
Over 1.5 goals	—	1.12Marathonbet 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Under 1.5 goals	—	4.75Marathonbet 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Over 2.5 goals	61.2%	1.48Marathonbet 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Under 2.5 goals	38.8%	2.33Marathonbet 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Over 3.5 goals	—	2.27Marathonbet 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Under 3.5 goals	—	1.54Marathonbet 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Over 4.5 goals	—	3.82Marathonbet 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Under 4.5 goals	—	1.19Marathonbet 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Both teams to score — Yes	60.3%	1.55William Hill 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Both teams to score — No	39.7%	2.34Marathonbet 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Home or draw	46.9%	2.10William Hill 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Away or draw	77.4%	1.20William Hill 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Home or away	75.7%	1.22William Hill 7 Nov, 10:31 UK
Home team to concede	—	—
Away team to concede	—	—

Model status: Out of date · Pre-match research only; selections closed

Model calculation: 31 Oct, 00:16 UKMatch centre →

Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →