Sample read started 2026-11-07T16:53:06+00:00. Complete samples are shared for at most 15 seconds; incomplete samples for at most 5 seconds. Original model and odds timestamps are unchanged; age and kickoff checks are repeated for each view.
Reads use stored data, not live bookmaker quotes. Fixture, score, model and current-price records from one read-only database snapshot. Price-change history and competition totals are separate reads; records and prices can change after a sample was taken.
01
Choose a marketFilter goals, match results, BTTS or double chance.
02
Compare the evidenceCheck the estimate, price and data timestamp.
03
Follow it throughOpen the match for context or review captured selections in the record.
Choose a shortcut, then refine the competition and minimum estimate below.
Upcoming fixtures first, then live and finished research. Model estimates and bookmaker-derived market chances are labelled separately. Delayed, postponed and cancelled records appear last.
Probability or value? Probability describes how likely an outcome is. Value also considers its price. A high percentage alone does not make a good selection; estimates and odds can change.
About these probabilities and odds
Kickoff Edge combines recorded expected goals (xG) with opponent-adjusted team strengths. The xG model blends the recent xG signal and v3 equally, using up to ten previous matches per team, weighted toward recent performances. Both teams need at least five xG matches within six months. Where xG is unavailable, the labelled team-strength model remains in use, with recent-form fallback for limited competition history. Experimental recent-form fallbacks remain research only and are excluded from probability and value recommendation filters. Missing xG is never treated as zero. Competitive cup matches between verified domestic divisions also adjust team strength for the division gap, using earlier league appearances. The initial map covers 37 leagues in eight national pyramids; unknown or cross-country tiers are not guessed. All markets share one score distribution. These are pre-match estimates, not live forecasts or guaranteed outcomes. Historical testing showed lower overall error on the tested sample, but calibration and future performance remain under review. Odds show the highest stored price for each selection; bookmaker availability and prices can change. Additional xG and multi-source challengers are evaluated separately in the model observatory before public promotion. Bookmaker price movement is recorded from collection onwards; it does not reveal betting volume.
Existing pre-match model policy: Available. This is separate from provider predictions and bookmaker-implied chances; stored percentages alone do not establish eligibility or accuracy.
Home: stored
Draw: stored
Away: stored
Existing model policy · no recalculation in this panel. Within stored model-age check.
Model calculation: 2026-11-07T12:16:25+00:00 (UTC).
Selected-market oddsStored
A stored price exists for this selection only. It does not establish a complete market, current bookmaker availability or value.
Selected outcome: stored
Stored odds snapshot. Stored prices need rechecking.
This describes data loaded for this view, not the whole database. Unknown coverage is not unsupported coverage. A blank field is not zero or a promise that data will arrive.
Estimated chances · pre-match
Home28.2%Odds 2.87
Draw20.9%Odds 3.75
Away50.9%Odds 2.44
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
71.0%
1.59PinnacleProvider 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Drifting · 1.56 → 1.59 same bookmaker · recorded pre-match change · 7 Nov, 11:40 UK
What would £100 at 1.59 mean?
Potential return £159.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £59.00. Loss if it loses: £100.
Break-even win rate: 62.9%. Displayed chance: 71.0%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.
Existing pre-match model policy: Available. This is separate from provider predictions and bookmaker-implied chances; stored percentages alone do not establish eligibility or accuracy.
Home: stored
Draw: stored
Away: stored
Existing model policy · no recalculation in this panel. Within stored model-age check.
Model calculation: 2026-11-07T12:16:24+00:00 (UTC).
Selected-market oddsStored
A stored price exists for this selection only. It does not establish a complete market, current bookmaker availability or value.
Selected outcome: stored
Stored odds snapshot. Stored prices need rechecking.
This describes data loaded for this view, not the whole database. Unknown coverage is not unsupported coverage. A blank field is not zero or a promise that data will arrive.
Estimated chances · pre-match
Home36.0%Odds 2.55
Draw22.4%Odds 3.71
Away41.6%Odds 2.71
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
66.8%
1.60PinnacleProvider 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Drifting · 1.58 → 1.60 same bookmaker · recorded pre-match change · 7 Nov, 11:40 UK
What would £100 at 1.60 mean?
Potential return £160.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £60.00. Loss if it loses: £100.
Break-even win rate: 62.5%. Displayed chance: 66.8%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.
Existing pre-match model policy: Available. This is separate from provider predictions and bookmaker-implied chances; stored percentages alone do not establish eligibility or accuracy.
Home: stored
Draw: stored
Away: stored
Existing model policy · no recalculation in this panel. Within stored model-age check.
Model calculation: 2026-11-07T12:14:20+00:00 (UTC).
Selected-market oddsStored
A stored price exists for this selection only. It does not establish a complete market, current bookmaker availability or value.
Selected outcome: stored
Stored odds snapshot. Stored pre-match data · not a live feed.
This describes data loaded for this view, not the whole database. Unknown coverage is not unsupported coverage. A blank field is not zero or a promise that data will arrive.
Estimated chances · pre-match
Home45.0%Odds 2.12
Draw23.3%Odds 3.71
Away31.7%Odds 3.50
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
61.2%
1.72PinnacleProvider 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Drifting · 1.65 → 1.72 same bookmaker · recorded pre-match change · 7 Nov, 11:40 UK
What would £100 at 1.72 mean?
Potential return £172.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £72.00. Loss if it loses: £100.
Break-even win rate: 58.1%. Displayed chance: 61.2%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.
All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
Market
Estimate
Stored odds
Home win
45.0%
2.12Pinnacle 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Draw
23.3%
3.71Pinnacle 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Away win
31.7%
3.50Bet365 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Over 0.5 goals
95.8%
1.05Betano 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Under 0.5 goals
4.2%
15.00Betfair 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Over 1.5 goals
82.4%
1.23Betano 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Under 1.5 goals
17.6%
4.54Pinnacle 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Over 2.5 goals
61.2%
1.72Pinnacle 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Under 2.5 goals
38.8%
2.21Pinnacle 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Over 3.5 goals
38.9%
2.75BetVictor 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Under 3.5 goals
61.1%
1.50Betano 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Over 4.5 goals
21.2%
5.25BetVictor 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Under 4.5 goals
78.8%
1.20Pinnacle 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Both teams to score — Yes
62.6%
1.57Bet365 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Both teams to score — No
37.4%
2.45Betfair 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Home or draw
68.3%
1.34Betano 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Away or draw
55.0%
1.80Betano 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Home or away
76.7%
1.301xBet 7 Nov, 09:02 UK
Home team to concede
76.0%
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Away team to concede
82.4%
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Model status: Available · Pre-match research only; selections closed
ExcelsiorVS
GO Ahead Eagles
ADO Den Haag
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard
Telstar