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Sorted by the chosen market’s model estimate. Higher probability does not necessarily mean better value.

← Previous dayMonday, 3 August 2026Next day →

Probability or value? Probability describes how likely an outcome is. Value also considers its price. A high percentage alone does not make a good selection; estimates and odds can change.

About these probabilities and odds

Kickoff Edge combines recorded expected goals (xG) with opponent-adjusted team strengths. The xG model blends the recent xG signal and v3 equally, using up to ten previous matches per team, weighted toward recent performances. Both teams need at least five xG matches within six months. Where xG is unavailable, the labelled team-strength model remains in use, with recent-form fallback for limited competition history. Experimental recent-form fallbacks remain research only and are excluded from probability and value recommendation filters. Missing xG is never treated as zero. Competitive cup matches between verified domestic divisions also adjust team strength for the division gap, using earlier league appearances. The initial map covers 37 leagues in eight national pyramids; unknown or cross-country tiers are not guessed. All markets share one score distribution. These are pre-match estimates, not live forecasts or guaranteed outcomes. Historical testing showed lower overall error on the tested sample, but calibration and future performance remain under review. Odds show the highest stored price for each selection; bookmaker availability and prices can change. Additional xG and multi-source challengers are evaluated separately in the model observatory before public promotion. Bookmaker price movement is recorded from collection onwards; it does not reveal betting volume.

Over 2.5 goals

12 matching fixtures · 3 Aug
Sweden · Allsvenskan
Djurgardens IF6–0Vasteras SK FK
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 1.45
Draw—Odds 4.75
Away—Odds 6.00
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.44Bet365Snapshot 2 Aug, 20:04 · Older than 24 hours
What would £100 at 1.44 mean?

Potential return £144.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £44.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 69.4%. Displayed chance: —. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—1.45Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Draw—4.75Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Away win—6.00Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Over 0.5 goals—1.02Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Under 0.5 goals—19.00Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Over 1.5 goals—1.12Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Under 1.5 goals—6.00Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Over 2.5 goals—1.44Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Under 2.5 goals—2.70Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Over 3.5 goals—2.10Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Under 3.5 goals—1.67Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Over 4.5 goals—3.50Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Under 4.5 goals—1.28Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Both teams to score — Yes—1.62Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Both teams to score — No—2.20Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Stored model estimateMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · ASEAN Championship
Indonesia0–3Vietnam
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 2.40
Draw—Odds 3.20
Away—Odds 2.60
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.95Bet365Snapshot 2 Aug, 20:54 · Older than 24 hours
What would £100 at 1.95 mean?

Potential return £195.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £95.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 51.3%. Displayed chance: —. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—2.40Bet365
2 Aug, 20:54
Draw—3.20Bet365
2 Aug, 20:54
Away win—2.60Bet365
2 Aug, 20:54
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals—1.95Bet365
2 Aug, 20:54
Under 2.5 goals—1.85Bet365
2 Aug, 20:54
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Stored model estimateMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Romania · Liga I
Universitatea Cluj2–1FC Botosani
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 1.80
Draw—Odds 3.30
Away—Odds 3.90
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
2.05Bet365Snapshot 2 Aug, 17:21 · Older than 24 hours
What would £100 at 2.05 mean?

Potential return £205.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £105.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 48.8%. Displayed chance: —. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—1.80Bet365
2 Aug, 17:21
Draw—3.30Bet365
2 Aug, 17:21
Away win—3.90Bet365
2 Aug, 17:21
Over 0.5 goals—1.06Bet365
2 Aug, 17:21
Under 0.5 goals—10.00Bet365
2 Aug, 17:21
Over 1.5 goals—1.33Bet365
2 Aug, 17:21
Under 1.5 goals—3.25Bet365
2 Aug, 17:21
Over 2.5 goals—2.05Bet365
2 Aug, 17:21
Under 2.5 goals—1.75Bet365
2 Aug, 17:21
Over 3.5 goals—3.75Bet365
2 Aug, 17:21
Under 3.5 goals—1.25Bet365
2 Aug, 17:21
Over 4.5 goals—8.00Bet365
2 Aug, 17:21
Under 4.5 goals—1.08Bet365
2 Aug, 17:21
Both teams to score — Yes—1.83Bet365
2 Aug, 17:21
Both teams to score — No—1.83Bet365
2 Aug, 17:21
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Stored model estimateMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Scotland · Premiership
Celtic1–0Dundee
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 1.20
Draw—Odds 7.50
Away—Odds 10.00
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.36Bet365Snapshot 2 Aug, 21:03 · Older than 24 hours
What would £100 at 1.36 mean?

Potential return £136.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £36.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 73.5%. Displayed chance: —. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—1.20Bet365
2 Aug, 21:03
Draw—7.50Bet365
2 Aug, 21:03
Away win—10.00Bet365
2 Aug, 21:03
Over 0.5 goals—1.01Bet365
2 Aug, 21:03
Under 0.5 goals—23.00Bet365
2 Aug, 21:03
Over 1.5 goals—1.11Bet365
2 Aug, 21:03
Under 1.5 goals—6.50Bet365
2 Aug, 21:03
Over 2.5 goals—1.36Bet365
2 Aug, 21:03
Under 2.5 goals—3.20Bet365
2 Aug, 21:03
Over 3.5 goals—1.91Bet365
2 Aug, 21:03
Under 3.5 goals—1.91Bet365
2 Aug, 21:03
Over 4.5 goals—3.20Bet365
2 Aug, 21:03
Under 4.5 goals—1.36Bet365
2 Aug, 21:03
Both teams to score — Yes—1.80Bet365
2 Aug, 21:03
Both teams to score — No—1.95Bet365
2 Aug, 21:03
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Stored model estimateMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Romania · Liga I
FCSB2–2Farul Constanta
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 1.70
Draw—Odds 3.40
Away—Odds 4.33
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.75Bet365Snapshot 2 Aug, 21:10 · Older than 24 hours
What would £100 at 1.75 mean?

Potential return £175.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £75.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 57.1%. Displayed chance: —. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—1.70Bet365
2 Aug, 21:10
Draw—3.40Bet365
2 Aug, 21:10
Away win—4.33Bet365
2 Aug, 21:10
Over 0.5 goals—1.04Bet365
2 Aug, 21:10
Under 0.5 goals—13.00Bet365
2 Aug, 21:10
Over 1.5 goals—1.22Bet365
2 Aug, 21:10
Under 1.5 goals—4.00Bet365
2 Aug, 21:10
Over 2.5 goals—1.75Bet365
2 Aug, 21:10
Under 2.5 goals—2.05Bet365
2 Aug, 21:10
Over 3.5 goals—2.75Bet365
2 Aug, 21:10
Under 3.5 goals—1.40Bet365
2 Aug, 21:10
Over 4.5 goals—5.50Bet365
2 Aug, 21:10
Under 4.5 goals—1.14Bet365
2 Aug, 21:10
Both teams to score — Yes—1.73Bet365
2 Aug, 21:10
Both teams to score — No—2.00Bet365
2 Aug, 21:10
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Stored model estimateMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
England · League Cup
York0–2Crawley Town
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 1.65
Draw—Odds 4.00
Away—Odds 5.25
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.80Bet365Snapshot 2 Aug, 21:01 · Older than 24 hours
What would £100 at 1.80 mean?

Potential return £180.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £80.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 55.6%. Displayed chance: —. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—1.65Bet365
2 Aug, 21:01
Draw—4.00Bet365
2 Aug, 21:01
Away win—5.25Bet365
2 Aug, 21:01
Over 0.5 goals—1.04Bet365
2 Aug, 21:01
Under 0.5 goals—12.00Bet365
2 Aug, 21:01
Over 1.5 goals—1.22Bet365
2 Aug, 21:01
Under 1.5 goals—4.00Bet365
2 Aug, 21:01
Over 2.5 goals—1.80Bet365
2 Aug, 21:01
Under 2.5 goals—2.00Bet365
2 Aug, 21:01
Over 3.5 goals—2.75Bet365
2 Aug, 21:01
Under 3.5 goals—1.40Bet365
2 Aug, 21:01
Over 4.5 goals—5.50Bet365
2 Aug, 21:01
Under 4.5 goals—1.14Bet365
2 Aug, 21:01
Both teams to score — Yes—1.80Bet365
2 Aug, 21:01
Both teams to score — No—1.95Bet365
2 Aug, 21:01
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Stored model estimateMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Poland · Ekstraklasa
Cracovia Krakow0–2Pogon Szczecin
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 2.15
Draw—Odds 3.20
Away—Odds 3.20
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
2.15Bet365Snapshot 2 Aug, 20:59 · Older than 24 hours
What would £100 at 2.15 mean?

Potential return £215.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £115.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 46.5%. Displayed chance: —. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—2.15Bet365
2 Aug, 20:59
Draw—3.20Bet365
2 Aug, 20:59
Away win—3.20Bet365
2 Aug, 20:59
Over 0.5 goals—1.07Bet365
2 Aug, 20:59
Under 0.5 goals—9.00Bet365
2 Aug, 20:59
Over 1.5 goals—1.36Bet365
2 Aug, 20:59
Under 1.5 goals—3.00Bet365
2 Aug, 20:59
Over 2.5 goals—2.15Bet365
2 Aug, 20:59
Under 2.5 goals—1.67Bet365
2 Aug, 20:59
Over 3.5 goals—4.00Bet365
2 Aug, 20:59
Under 3.5 goals—1.22Bet365
2 Aug, 20:59
Over 4.5 goals—9.00Bet365
2 Aug, 20:59
Under 4.5 goals—1.07Bet365
2 Aug, 20:59
Both teams to score — Yes—1.95Bet365
2 Aug, 20:59
Both teams to score — No—1.80Bet365
2 Aug, 20:59
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Stored model estimateMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Denmark · Superliga
Odense1–0Sonderjyske
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 2.10
Draw—Odds 3.50
Away—Odds 3.30
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.62Bet365Snapshot 2 Aug, 20:55 · Older than 24 hours
What would £100 at 1.62 mean?

Potential return £162.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £62.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 61.7%. Displayed chance: —. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—2.10Bet365
2 Aug, 20:55
Draw—3.50Bet365
2 Aug, 20:55
Away win—3.30Bet365
2 Aug, 20:55
Over 0.5 goals—1.03Bet365
2 Aug, 20:55
Under 0.5 goals—15.00Bet365
2 Aug, 20:55
Over 1.5 goals—1.18Bet365
2 Aug, 20:55
Under 1.5 goals—4.50Bet365
2 Aug, 20:55
Over 2.5 goals—1.62Bet365
2 Aug, 20:55
Under 2.5 goals—2.25Bet365
2 Aug, 20:55
Over 3.5 goals—2.50Bet365
2 Aug, 20:55
Under 3.5 goals—1.50Bet365
2 Aug, 20:55
Over 4.5 goals—4.50Bet365
2 Aug, 20:55
Under 4.5 goals—1.18Bet365
2 Aug, 20:55
Both teams to score — Yes—1.53Bet365
2 Aug, 20:55
Both teams to score — No—2.38Bet365
2 Aug, 20:55
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Stored model estimateMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Sweden · Allsvenskan
Halmstad0–2Sirius
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 7.50
Draw—Odds 4.75
Away—Odds 1.38
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.44Bet365Snapshot 2 Aug, 20:04 · Older than 24 hours
What would £100 at 1.44 mean?

Potential return £144.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £44.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 69.4%. Displayed chance: —. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—7.50Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Draw—4.75Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Away win—1.38Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Over 0.5 goals—1.02Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Under 0.5 goals—19.00Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Over 1.5 goals—1.12Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Under 1.5 goals—6.00Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Over 2.5 goals—1.44Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Under 2.5 goals—2.70Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Over 3.5 goals—2.10Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Under 3.5 goals—1.67Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Over 4.5 goals—3.50Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Under 4.5 goals—1.28Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Both teams to score — Yes—1.67Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Both teams to score — No—2.10Bet365
2 Aug, 20:04
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Stored model estimateMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Bulgaria · First League
Spartak Varna1–0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 3.10
Draw—Odds 3.20
Away—Odds 2.35
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.95Bet365Snapshot 2 Aug, 20:57 · Older than 24 hours
What would £100 at 1.95 mean?

Potential return £195.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £95.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 51.3%. Displayed chance: —. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—3.10Bet365
2 Aug, 20:57
Draw—3.20Bet365
2 Aug, 20:57
Away win—2.35Bet365
2 Aug, 20:57
Over 0.5 goals—1.05Bet365
2 Aug, 20:57
Under 0.5 goals—11.00Bet365
2 Aug, 20:57
Over 1.5 goals—1.28Bet365
2 Aug, 20:57
Under 1.5 goals—3.50Bet365
2 Aug, 20:57
Over 2.5 goals—1.95Bet365
2 Aug, 20:57
Under 2.5 goals—1.85Bet365
2 Aug, 20:57
Over 3.5 goals—3.25Bet365
2 Aug, 20:57
Under 3.5 goals—1.33Bet365
2 Aug, 20:57
Over 4.5 goals—6.50Bet365
2 Aug, 20:57
Under 4.5 goals—1.11Bet365
2 Aug, 20:57
Both teams to score — Yes—1.73Bet365
2 Aug, 20:57
Both teams to score — No—2.00Bet365
2 Aug, 20:57
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Stored model estimateMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · ASEAN Championship
Cambodia3–0Timor-Leste
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.
All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Stored model estimateMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · Friendlies
India U203–0Singapore U20
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →