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Sorted by the chosen market’s model estimate. Higher probability does not necessarily mean better value.

← Previous dayWednesday, 12 August 2026Next day →

Probability or value? Probability describes how likely an outcome is. Value also considers its price. A high percentage alone does not make a good selection; estimates and odds can change.

About these probabilities and odds

Kickoff Edge combines recorded expected goals (xG) with opponent-adjusted team strengths. The xG model blends the recent xG signal and v3 equally, using up to ten previous matches per team, weighted toward recent performances. Both teams need at least five xG matches within six months. Where xG is unavailable, the labelled team-strength model remains in use, with recent-form fallback for limited competition history. Experimental recent-form fallbacks remain research only and are excluded from probability and value recommendation filters. Missing xG is never treated as zero. Competitive cup matches between verified domestic divisions also adjust team strength for the division gap, using earlier league appearances. The initial map covers 37 leagues in eight national pyramids; unknown or cross-country tiers are not guessed. All markets share one score distribution. These are pre-match estimates, not live forecasts or guaranteed outcomes. Historical testing showed lower overall error on the tested sample, but calibration and future performance remain under review. Odds show the highest stored price for each selection; bookmaker availability and prices can change. Additional xG and multi-source challengers are evaluated separately in the model observatory before public promotion. Bookmaker price movement is recorded from collection onwards; it does not reveal betting volume.

Over 2.5 goals

15 matching fixtures · 12 Aug
World · CONMEBOL Libertadores
Estudiantes L.P.1–1U. Catolica
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 1.70
Draw—Odds 3.50
Away—Odds 5.75
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
2.50Bet365Snapshot 11 Aug, 20:01 · Older than 24 hours
What would £100 at 2.50 mean?

Potential return £250.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £150.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 40.0%. Displayed chance: —. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—1.70Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Draw—3.50Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Away win—5.75Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Over 0.5 goals—1.11Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Under 0.5 goals—6.50Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Over 1.5 goals—1.50Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Under 1.5 goals—2.50Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Over 2.5 goals—2.50Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Under 2.5 goals—1.50Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Over 3.5 goals—5.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Under 3.5 goals—1.17Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Over 4.5 goals—11.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Under 4.5 goals—1.05Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Both teams to score — Yes—2.38Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Both teams to score — No—1.53Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Stored model estimateMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · Friendlies
Brazil U202–0Bolivia U20
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Germany · Regionalliga - Nord
Bremer SV0–0Phönix Lübeck
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · UEFA Europa Conference League
Rapid Vienna2–0Paide
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 1.09
Draw—Odds 9.00
Away—Odds 21.00
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.36Bet365Snapshot 11 Aug, 20:28 · Older than 24 hours

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—1.09Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Draw—9.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Away win—21.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Over 0.5 goals—1.01Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Under 0.5 goals—12.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Over 1.5 goals—1.11Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Under 1.5 goals—6.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Over 2.5 goals—1.36Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Under 2.5 goals—3.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Over 3.5 goals—1.91Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Under 3.5 goals—1.80Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Over 4.5 goals—3.25Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Under 4.5 goals—1.33Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Both teams to score — Yes—2.62Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Both teams to score — No—1.44Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · UEFA Europa Conference League
GKS Katowice2–1Hapoel Tel Aviv
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 1.95
Draw—Odds 3.30
Away—Odds 3.70
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
2.15Bet365Snapshot 11 Aug, 20:28 · Older than 24 hours

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—1.95Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Draw—3.30Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Away win—3.70Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Over 0.5 goals—1.07Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Under 0.5 goals—7.50Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Over 1.5 goals—1.36Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Under 1.5 goals—3.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Over 2.5 goals—2.15Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Under 2.5 goals—1.67Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Over 3.5 goals—3.75Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Under 3.5 goals—1.25Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Over 4.5 goals—7.50Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Under 4.5 goals—1.07Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Both teams to score — Yes—2.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Both teams to score — No—1.73Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Copenhagen5–1Debreceni VSC
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 1.22
Draw—Odds 5.50
Away—Odds 10.00
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.57Bet365Snapshot 11 Aug, 20:28 · Older than 24 hours

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—1.22Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Draw—5.50Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Away win—10.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Over 0.5 goals—1.02Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Under 0.5 goals—10.50Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Over 1.5 goals—1.17Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Under 1.5 goals—4.50Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Over 2.5 goals—1.57Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Under 2.5 goals—2.35Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Over 3.5 goals—2.38Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Under 3.5 goals—1.53Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Over 4.5 goals—4.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Under 4.5 goals—1.22Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Both teams to score — Yes—2.10Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Both teams to score — No—1.67Bet365
11 Aug, 20:28
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Germany · Regionalliga - Nord
Eimsbütteler TV1–2Schöningen
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Germany · Regionalliga - Nord
HSC Hannover3–0Atlas Delmenhorst
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Germany · Regionalliga - Nord
SSV Jeddeloh2–0St. Pauli II
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Germany · Regionalliga - Nord
Eintracht Norderstedt6–2Kickers Emden
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Germany · Regionalliga - Nord
Hamburger SV II2–2Todesfelde
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Germany · Regionalliga - Nord
SV Drochtersen/Assel1–2Hannover 96 II
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
England · Non League Premier - Southern South
Gosport Borough0–1Hanworth Villa
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 2.70
Draw—Odds 3.60
Away—Odds 2.15
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.70Bet365Snapshot 11 Aug, 20:42 · Older than 24 hours

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—2.70Bet365
11 Aug, 20:42
Draw—3.60Bet365
11 Aug, 20:42
Away win—2.15Bet365
11 Aug, 20:42
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals—1.70Bet365
11 Aug, 20:42
Under 2.5 goals—2.10Bet365
11 Aug, 20:42
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · CONMEBOL Libertadores
Platense1–1Coquimbo Unido
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · CONMEBOL Libertadores
Palmeiras1–1Cerro Porteno
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 1.30
Draw—Odds 5.50
Away—Odds 9.00
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.95Bet365Snapshot 11 Aug, 20:01 · Older than 24 hours

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—1.30Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Draw—5.50Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Away win—9.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Over 0.5 goals—1.05Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Under 0.5 goals—11.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Over 1.5 goals—1.30Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Under 1.5 goals—3.40Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Over 2.5 goals—1.95Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Under 2.5 goals—1.85Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Over 3.5 goals—3.50Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Under 3.5 goals—1.28Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Over 4.5 goals—7.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Under 4.5 goals—1.10Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Both teams to score — Yes—2.50Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Both teams to score — No—1.50Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →