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Sorted by the chosen market’s model estimate. Higher probability does not necessarily mean better value.

← Previous dayWednesday, 19 August 2026Next day →

Probability or value? Probability describes how likely an outcome is. Value also considers its price. A high percentage alone does not make a good selection; estimates and odds can change.

About these probabilities and odds

Kickoff Edge combines recorded expected goals (xG) with opponent-adjusted team strengths. The xG model blends the recent xG signal and v3 equally, using up to ten previous matches per team, weighted toward recent performances. Both teams need at least five xG matches within six months. Where xG is unavailable, the labelled team-strength model remains in use, with recent-form fallback for limited competition history. Experimental recent-form fallbacks remain research only and are excluded from probability and value recommendation filters. Missing xG is never treated as zero. Competitive cup matches between verified domestic divisions also adjust team strength for the division gap, using earlier league appearances. The initial map covers 37 leagues in eight national pyramids; unknown or cross-country tiers are not guessed. All markets share one score distribution. These are pre-match estimates, not live forecasts or guaranteed outcomes. Historical testing showed lower overall error on the tested sample, but calibration and future performance remain under review. Odds show the highest stored price for each selection; bookmaker availability and prices can change. Additional xG and multi-source challengers are evaluated separately in the model observatory before public promotion. Bookmaker price movement is recorded from collection onwards; it does not reveal betting volume.

Over 2.5 goals

15 matching fixtures · 19 Aug
World · CONMEBOL Libertadores
Deportes Tolima0–1Independiente del Valle
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 2.88
Draw—Odds 3.20
Away—Odds 2.55
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
2.25Bet365Snapshot 11 Aug, 20:01 · Older than 24 hours
What would £100 at 2.25 mean?

Potential return £225.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £125.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 44.4%. Displayed chance: —. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—2.88Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Draw—3.20Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Away win—2.55Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Over 0.5 goals—1.08Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Under 0.5 goals—8.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Over 1.5 goals—1.40Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Under 1.5 goals—2.75Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Over 2.5 goals—2.25Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Under 2.5 goals—1.62Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Over 3.5 goals—4.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Under 3.5 goals—1.22Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Over 4.5 goals—10.00Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Under 4.5 goals—1.06Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Both teams to score — Yes—1.95Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Both teams to score — No—1.80Bet365
11 Aug, 20:01
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Stored model estimateMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · CONMEBOL Libertadores
U. Catolica0–3Estudiantes L.P.
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · Friendlies
Kuwait U200–1Iraq U20
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · ASEAN Championship
Vietnam2–0Malaysia
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Germany · Regionalliga - Nord
Werder Bremen II1–2Weiche Flensburg
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
England · EFL Trophy
Mansfield Town1–4Manchester City U21
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
England · National League - South
Farnborough1–0Chesham United
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
England · Non League Premier - Northern
Avro4–1Workington
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · UEFA Champions League
NEC Nijmegen1–3Bodo/Glimt
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · UEFA Champions League
Hapoel Beer Sheva2–1Sabah FA
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · UEFA Champions League
Slovan Bratislava1–1Celje
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Spain · La Liga
Atletico Madrid2–0Malaga
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · UEFA Champions League
Celtic3–0Lask Linz
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · CONMEBOL Libertadores
Coquimbo Unido0–0Platense
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · CONMEBOL Libertadores
Cerro Porteno0–1Palmeiras
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →