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Sorted by the chosen market’s model estimate. Higher probability does not necessarily mean better value.

← Previous dayWednesday, 23 September 2026Next day →

Probability or value? Probability describes how likely an outcome is. Value also considers its price. A high percentage alone does not make a good selection; estimates and odds can change.

About these probabilities and odds

Kickoff Edge combines recorded expected goals (xG) with opponent-adjusted team strengths. The xG model blends the recent xG signal and v3 equally, using up to ten previous matches per team, weighted toward recent performances. Both teams need at least five xG matches within six months. Where xG is unavailable, the labelled team-strength model remains in use, with recent-form fallback for limited competition history. Experimental recent-form fallbacks remain research only and are excluded from probability and value recommendation filters. Missing xG is never treated as zero. Competitive cup matches between verified domestic divisions also adjust team strength for the division gap, using earlier league appearances. The initial map covers 37 leagues in eight national pyramids; unknown or cross-country tiers are not guessed. All markets share one score distribution. These are pre-match estimates, not live forecasts or guaranteed outcomes. Historical testing showed lower overall error on the tested sample, but calibration and future performance remain under review. Odds show the highest stored price for each selection; bookmaker availability and prices can change. Additional xG and multi-source challengers are evaluated separately in the model observatory before public promotion. Bookmaker price movement is recorded from collection onwards; it does not reveal betting volume.

Over 2.5 goals

14 matching fixtures · 23 Sep
England · FA Cup
Exmouth1–3Thame United
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home47.8%Odds —
Draw20.9%Odds —
Away31.3%Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
73.0%
No stored odds for this selection.
All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win47.8%—
Draw20.9%—
Away win31.3%—
Over 0.5 goals97.7%—
Under 0.5 goals2.3%—
Over 1.5 goals89.2%—
Under 1.5 goals10.8%—
Over 2.5 goals73.0%—
Under 2.5 goals27.0%—
Over 3.5 goals52.5%—
Under 3.5 goals47.5%—
Over 4.5 goals33.1%—
Under 4.5 goals66.9%—
Both teams to score — Yes71.6%—
Both teams to score — No28.4%—
Home or draw68.7%—
Away or draw52.2%—
Home or away79.1%—
Home team to concede81.5%—
Away team to concede87.8%—
Calculated 23 Sep, 19:20 UKMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · Friendlies
Finland U173–1France U17
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home48.6%Odds —
Draw24.6%Odds —
Away26.8%Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
52.2%
No stored odds for this selection.
All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win48.6%—
Draw24.6%—
Away win26.8%—
Over 0.5 goals93.7%—
Under 0.5 goals6.3%—
Over 1.5 goals76.3%—
Under 1.5 goals23.7%—
Over 2.5 goals52.2%—
Under 2.5 goals47.8%—
Over 3.5 goals30.0%—
Under 3.5 goals70.0%—
Over 4.5 goals14.7%—
Under 4.5 goals85.3%—
Both teams to score — Yes54.7%—
Both teams to score — No45.3%—
Home or draw73.2%—
Away or draw51.4%—
Home or away75.4%—
Home team to concede68.1%—
Away team to concede80.3%—
Calculated 23 Sep, 14:30 UKMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
England · National League Cup
Boreham Wood1–1Everton U21
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 1.22
Draw—Odds 6.70
Away—Odds 11.19
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.40PinnacleSnapshot 23 Sep, 17:35 · Older than 24 hours

Price history is building · no earlier change recorded for this bookmaker.

What would £100 at 1.40 mean?

Potential return £140.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £40.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 71.4%. Displayed chance: —. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—1.22Bet365
23 Sep, 17:35
Draw—6.70Pinnacle
23 Sep, 17:35
Away win—11.19Pinnacle
23 Sep, 17:35
Over 0.5 goals—1.011xBet
23 Sep, 17:35
Under 0.5 goals—19.501xBet
23 Sep, 17:35
Over 1.5 goals—1.05Betfair
23 Sep, 17:35
Under 1.5 goals—8.00Betfair
23 Sep, 17:35
Over 2.5 goals—1.40Pinnacle
23 Sep, 17:35
Under 2.5 goals—3.40Bet365
23 Sep, 17:35
Over 3.5 goals—1.78Pinnacle
23 Sep, 17:35
Under 3.5 goals—2.05SBO
23 Sep, 17:35
Over 4.5 goals—2.88Betfair
23 Sep, 17:35
Under 4.5 goals—1.42Pinnacle
23 Sep, 17:35
Both teams to score — Yes—1.70Marathonbet
23 Sep, 17:35
Both teams to score — No—2.10Betfair
23 Sep, 17:35
Home or draw—1.06Bet365
23 Sep, 17:35
Away or draw—4.50Betfair
23 Sep, 17:35
Home or away—1.11William Hill
23 Sep, 17:35
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Calculated 23 Sep, 18:36 UKMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Spain · Copa Federacion
Saguntino0–4Navalcarnero
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 2.82
Draw—Odds 3.06
Away—Odds 2.63
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
2.38Bet365Snapshot 23 Sep, 17:49 · Older than 24 hours

Drifting · 2.10 → 2.20 same bookmaker · observed price change

What would £100 at 2.38 mean?

Potential return £238.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £138.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 42.0%. Displayed chance: —. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—2.82Betano
23 Sep, 17:49
Draw—3.06Pinnacle
23 Sep, 17:49
Away win—2.63Betfair
23 Sep, 17:49
Over 0.5 goals—1.09Betano
23 Sep, 17:49
Under 0.5 goals—8.00Betfair
23 Sep, 17:49
Over 1.5 goals—1.45BetVictor
23 Sep, 17:49
Under 1.5 goals—2.88Betfair
23 Sep, 17:49
Over 2.5 goals—2.38Bet365
23 Sep, 17:49
Under 2.5 goals—1.57Betfair
23 Sep, 17:49
Over 3.5 goals—4.75BetVictor
23 Sep, 17:49
Under 3.5 goals—1.20Betano
23 Sep, 17:49
Over 4.5 goals—10.001xBet
23 Sep, 17:49
Under 4.5 goals—1.06Betano
23 Sep, 17:49
Both teams to score — Yes—1.95BetVictor
23 Sep, 17:49
Both teams to score — No—1.85Betfair
23 Sep, 17:49
Home or draw—1.55William Hill
23 Sep, 17:49
Away or draw—1.40Betfair
23 Sep, 17:49
Home or away—1.36BetVictor
23 Sep, 17:49
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Calculated 23 Sep, 18:36 UKMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Spain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Sant Andreu1–1Real Madrid II
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home37.8%Odds 3.30
Draw33.2%Odds 3.41
Away29.1%Odds 2.20
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
25.9%
2.15Bet365Snapshot 23 Sep, 19:00 · Older than 24 hours

Price history is building · no earlier change recorded for this bookmaker.

What would £100 at 2.15 mean?

Potential return £215.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £115.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 46.5%. Displayed chance: 25.9%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win37.8%3.30BetVictor
23 Sep, 19:00
Draw33.2%3.41Pinnacle
23 Sep, 19:00
Away win29.1%2.20Betfair
23 Sep, 19:00
Over 0.5 goals82.8%1.05Bet365
23 Sep, 19:00
Under 0.5 goals17.2%9.00Betfair
23 Sep, 19:00
Over 1.5 goals52.6%1.36Bet365
23 Sep, 19:00
Under 1.5 goals47.4%3.20Betfair
23 Sep, 19:00
Over 2.5 goals25.9%2.15Bet365
23 Sep, 19:00
Under 2.5 goals74.1%1.74Pinnacle
23 Sep, 19:00
Over 3.5 goals10.3%4.00Betfair
23 Sep, 19:00
Under 3.5 goals89.7%1.25Bet365
23 Sep, 19:00
Over 4.5 goals3.4%8.00Betfair
23 Sep, 19:00
Under 4.5 goals96.6%1.08Bet365
23 Sep, 19:00
Both teams to score — Yes34.1%1.91Bet365
23 Sep, 19:00
Both teams to score — No65.9%1.91Betfair
23 Sep, 19:00
Home or draw70.9%1.65Betano
23 Sep, 19:00
Away or draw62.2%1.44Bet365
23 Sep, 19:00
Home or away66.8%1.33Betfair
23 Sep, 19:00
Home team to concede55.2%—
Away team to concede61.7%—
Calculated 23 Sep, 19:50 UKMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · Friendlies
Japan U182–1Ukraine U18
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · Gulf Cup of Nations
Iraq1–1Oman
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 1.91
Draw—Odds 3.31
Away—Odds 5.75
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
3.03PinnacleSnapshot 23 Sep, 13:51 · Older than 24 hours

Drifting · 2.40 → 3.03 same bookmaker · observed price change

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—1.91SBO
23 Sep, 13:51
Draw—3.31Pinnacle
23 Sep, 13:51
Away win—5.75Bet365
23 Sep, 13:51
Over 0.5 goals—1.13Pinnacle
23 Sep, 13:51
Under 0.5 goals—6.50Bet365
23 Sep, 13:51
Over 1.5 goals—1.66Pinnacle
23 Sep, 13:51
Under 1.5 goals—2.50Bet365
23 Sep, 13:51
Over 2.5 goals—3.03Pinnacle
23 Sep, 13:51
Under 2.5 goals—1.50Bet365
23 Sep, 13:51
Over 3.5 goals—6.38Pinnacle
23 Sep, 13:51
Under 3.5 goals—1.17Bet365
23 Sep, 13:51
Over 4.5 goals—14.001xBet
23 Sep, 13:51
Under 4.5 goals—1.05Bet365
23 Sep, 13:51
Both teams to score — Yes—2.57Marathonbet
23 Sep, 13:51
Both teams to score — No—1.52Betano
23 Sep, 13:51
Home or draw—1.15Betano
23 Sep, 13:51
Away or draw—2.10William Hill
23 Sep, 13:51
Home or away—1.351xBet
23 Sep, 13:51
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · Friendlies
Azerbaijan1–0Tajikistan
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 1.81
Draw—Odds 3.88
Away—Odds 4.74
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
2.04SBOSnapshot 23 Sep, 13:04 · Older than 24 hours

Price history is building · no earlier change recorded for this bookmaker.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—1.811xBet
23 Sep, 13:04
Draw—3.881xBet
23 Sep, 13:04
Away win—4.741xBet
23 Sep, 13:04
Over 0.5 goals—1.07Betano
23 Sep, 13:04
Under 0.5 goals—9.20Marathonbet
23 Sep, 13:04
Over 1.5 goals—1.33Betfair
23 Sep, 13:04
Under 1.5 goals—3.25Betfair
23 Sep, 13:04
Over 2.5 goals—2.04SBO
23 Sep, 13:04
Under 2.5 goals—1.881xBet
23 Sep, 13:04
Over 3.5 goals—3.60BetVictor
23 Sep, 13:04
Under 3.5 goals—1.32Betano
23 Sep, 13:04
Over 4.5 goals—7.50Betfair
23 Sep, 13:04
Under 4.5 goals—1.12Betano
23 Sep, 13:04
Both teams to score — Yes—1.95William Hill
23 Sep, 13:04
Both teams to score — No—1.91Betano
23 Sep, 13:04
Home or draw—1.231xBet
23 Sep, 13:04
Away or draw—2.111xBet
23 Sep, 13:04
Home or away—1.30William Hill
23 Sep, 13:04
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · Friendlies
Gibraltar0–0Sao Tome and Principe
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 1.52
Draw—Odds 5.00
Away—Odds 11.00
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.75BetfairSnapshot 23 Sep, 13:04 · Older than 24 hours

Drifting · 1.73 → 1.75 same bookmaker · observed price change

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—1.521xBet
23 Sep, 13:04
Draw—5.00William Hill
23 Sep, 13:04
Away win—11.00William Hill
23 Sep, 13:04
Over 0.5 goals—1.04Betano
23 Sep, 13:04
Under 0.5 goals—12.00Betfair
23 Sep, 13:04
Over 1.5 goals—1.22Betfair
23 Sep, 13:04
Under 1.5 goals—4.33BetVictor
23 Sep, 13:04
Over 2.5 goals—1.75Betfair
23 Sep, 13:04
Under 2.5 goals—2.301xBet
23 Sep, 13:04
Over 3.5 goals—2.88Betfair
23 Sep, 13:04
Under 3.5 goals—1.46Marathonbet
23 Sep, 13:04
Over 4.5 goals—6.00Betfair
23 Sep, 13:04
Under 4.5 goals—1.18Betano
23 Sep, 13:04
Both teams to score — Yes—2.25William Hill
23 Sep, 13:04
Both teams to score — No—1.961xBet
23 Sep, 13:04
Home or draw—1.14Betano
23 Sep, 13:04
Away or draw—3.80William Hill
23 Sep, 13:04
Home or away—1.221xBet
23 Sep, 13:04
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · Friendlies
France U211–1Austria U18
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · Friendlies
England U174–0Republic of Ireland U17
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · Gulf Cup of Nations
Saudi Arabia1–0Kuwait
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 1.35
Draw—Odds 5.69
Away—Odds 9.95
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.78SBOSnapshot 23 Sep, 17:50 · Older than 24 hours

Price history is building · no earlier change recorded for this bookmaker.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—1.35Betano
23 Sep, 17:50
Draw—5.691xBet
23 Sep, 17:50
Away win—9.951xBet
23 Sep, 17:50
Over 0.5 goals—1.04Bet365
23 Sep, 17:50
Under 0.5 goals—11.801xBet
23 Sep, 17:50
Over 1.5 goals—1.24Pinnacle
23 Sep, 17:50
Under 1.5 goals—4.10BetVictor
23 Sep, 17:50
Over 2.5 goals—1.78SBO
23 Sep, 17:50
Under 2.5 goals—2.13Pinnacle
23 Sep, 17:50
Over 3.5 goals—2.89Pinnacle
23 Sep, 17:50
Under 3.5 goals—1.44Bet365
23 Sep, 17:50
Over 4.5 goals—5.50Betfair
23 Sep, 17:50
Under 4.5 goals—1.17Bet365
23 Sep, 17:50
Both teams to score — Yes—2.20Betfair
23 Sep, 17:50
Both teams to score — No—1.75William Hill
23 Sep, 17:50
Home or draw—1.09Betano
23 Sep, 17:50
Away or draw—3.541xBet
23 Sep, 17:50
Home or away—1.17William Hill
23 Sep, 17:50
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · CONCACAF Nations League
Turks and Caicos Islands0–2Montserrat
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 17.00
Draw—Odds 7.60
Away—Odds 1.17
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.42BetanoSnapshot 23 Sep, 19:00 · Older than 24 hours

Drifting · 1.37 → 1.42 same bookmaker · observed price change

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—17.00Bet365
23 Sep, 19:00
Draw—7.60Marathonbet
23 Sep, 19:00
Away win—1.17William Hill
23 Sep, 19:00
Over 0.5 goals—1.011xBet
23 Sep, 19:00
Under 0.5 goals—15.001xBet
23 Sep, 19:00
Over 1.5 goals—1.13Betano
23 Sep, 19:00
Under 1.5 goals—6.50Betfair
23 Sep, 19:00
Over 2.5 goals—1.42Betano
23 Sep, 19:00
Under 2.5 goals—2.88Betfair
23 Sep, 19:00
Over 3.5 goals—2.08Pinnacle
23 Sep, 19:00
Under 3.5 goals—1.73Betfair
23 Sep, 19:00
Over 4.5 goals—3.40BetVictor
23 Sep, 19:00
Under 4.5 goals—1.29Betfair
23 Sep, 19:00
Both teams to score — Yes—2.18Marathonbet
23 Sep, 19:00
Both teams to score — No—1.73William Hill
23 Sep, 19:00
Home or draw—5.50Bet365
23 Sep, 19:00
Away or draw—1.06BetVictor
23 Sep, 19:00
Home or away—1.10William Hill
23 Sep, 19:00
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
World · CONCACAF Nations League
Bahamas0–8Saint Martin
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 21.00
Draw—Odds 8.80
Away—Odds 1.13
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.45PinnacleSnapshot 23 Sep, 19:00 · Older than 24 hours

Price history is building · no earlier change recorded for this bookmaker.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—21.00Bet365
23 Sep, 19:00
Draw—8.80Marathonbet
23 Sep, 19:00
Away win—1.13Betano
23 Sep, 19:00
Over 0.5 goals—1.01Betfair
23 Sep, 19:00
Under 0.5 goals—21.001xBet
23 Sep, 19:00
Over 1.5 goals—1.08Betano
23 Sep, 19:00
Under 1.5 goals—8.00BetVictor
23 Sep, 19:00
Over 2.5 goals—1.45Pinnacle
23 Sep, 19:00
Under 2.5 goals—3.50Bet365
23 Sep, 19:00
Over 3.5 goals—1.77Marathonbet
23 Sep, 19:00
Under 3.5 goals—2.00Pinnacle
23 Sep, 19:00
Over 4.5 goals—2.75Betfair
23 Sep, 19:00
Under 4.5 goals—1.42Betano
23 Sep, 19:00
Both teams to score — Yes—2.05BetVictor
23 Sep, 19:00
Both teams to score — No—1.80Betfair
23 Sep, 19:00
Home or draw—7.00Bet365
23 Sep, 19:00
Away or draw—1.07BetVictor
23 Sep, 19:00
Home or away—1.08Bet365
23 Sep, 19:00
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →