Original pre-match decisions, with later revisions kept separately.
Captured 2 Oct 2026 03:34 UK · kickoff 3 Oct 15:00 UK
Qualifying value candidate at capture time. This is a historical record, not a current betting instruction.
Over 2.5 goals · 68.9% · stored price 1.67 at Bet365
Kickoff Edge model · model opponent-shrink-dc-v3 · policy value-buffer-v2
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Model calculated 2 Oct 03:30 UK.
Open the matchOne fixed cohort: the first qualifying value candidate recorded for each fixture and policy, from the recorder’s launch onwards. Later selections do not replace it. Every captured loss and void stays in the cohort. One virtual unit per candidate, at its original stored price; availability is not guaranteed. This is not a backtest or a record of real bets.
| Policy / model | Candidates | Won | Lost | Void | Pending | Net units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| value-buffer-v2 / strength-tier-v42026-10-01 to 2026-10-01 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.00 | — |
| value-buffer-v2 / xg-blend-v12026-09-29 to 2026-10-01 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0.90 | 45.0% |
| value-buffer-v2 / opponent-shrink-dc-v32026-09-28 to 2026-10-02 | 52 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 35 | 1.72 | 10.1% |
ROI uses settled wins and losses only; voids return the unit stake. Pending fixtures remain visible. Results use confirmed regulation-time scores, with corrections appended for 30 days after kickoff. Unresolved postponements remain pending for review. Small samples and model uncertainty limit what any return figure tells us.
Includes no-value decisions and market fallbacks; these are not counted as value bets in the results above.