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KICKOFFEDGE
EVIDENCE OVER TIME

Decision record

Original pre-match decisions, with later revisions kept separately.

ORIGINAL RECORD

FC Cartagena v Águilas

Captured 2 Oct 2026 04:44 UK · kickoff 3 Oct 17:45 UK

No recommendation — prices need checking at capture time. This is a historical record, not a current betting instruction.

Either team to win (no draw) · 70.5% · stored price 1.33 at Betfair

Kickoff Edge model · model opponent-shrink-dc-v3 · policy value-buffer-v2

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:43 UK. Model calculated 2 Oct 04:34 UK.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Open the match

Prospective results

One fixed cohort: the first qualifying value candidate recorded for each fixture and policy, from the recorder’s launch onwards. Later selections do not replace it. Every captured loss and void stays in the cohort. One virtual unit per candidate, at its original stored price; availability is not guaranteed. This is not a backtest or a record of real bets.

Policy / modelCandidatesWonLostVoidPendingNet unitsROI
value-buffer-v2 / strength-tier-v42026-10-01 to 2026-10-01900090.00—
value-buffer-v2 / xg-blend-v12026-09-29 to 2026-10-011111090.9045.0%
value-buffer-v2 / opponent-shrink-dc-v32026-09-28 to 2026-10-02521070351.7210.1%

ROI uses settled wins and losses only; voids return the unit stake. Pending fixtures remain visible. Results use confirmed regulation-time scores, with corrections appended for 30 days after kickoff. Unresolved postponements remain pending for review. Small samples and model uncertainty limit what any return figure tells us.

Latest captured decisions

Includes no-value decisions and market fallbacks; these are not counted as value bets in the results above.

  1. Real Madrid II v Atlético Madrid II · Qualifying value candidate · 2 Oct 06:03 UK
  2. Eldense v Oviedo · Qualifying value candidate · 2 Oct 06:03 UK
  3. Serbia U21 v Russia U21 · No qualifying value at this price · 2 Oct 06:03 UK
  4. Kazakhstan v Moldova · No qualifying value at this price · 2 Oct 06:03 UK
  5. Montenegro U19 v Israel U19 · No qualifying value at this price · 2 Oct 06:03 UK
  6. Albania U19 v Lithuania U19 · No qualifying value at this price · 2 Oct 06:03 UK
  7. Congo DR v Uganda · No qualifying value at this price · 2 Oct 06:03 UK
  8. Wales U19 v Norway U19 · Qualifying value candidate · 2 Oct 06:03 UK
  9. Ivory Coast v Cameroon · No qualifying value at this price · 2 Oct 05:44 UK
  10. Arzignano Valchiampo v Pergolettese · No recommendation — prices need checking · 2 Oct 05:44 UK
  11. Russia v Namibia · No qualifying value at this price · 2 Oct 05:44 UK
  12. Redditch United v Berkhamsted · No recommendation — prices need checking · 2 Oct 05:44 UK
  13. Plymouth Parkway v Horsham · No recommendation — prices need checking · 2 Oct 05:44 UK
  14. Weymouth v SE Dons · No recommendation — prices need checking · 2 Oct 05:44 UK
  15. India v Brazil · No qualifying value at this price · 2 Oct 05:44 UK
  16. Finland v Albania · No qualifying value at this price · 2 Oct 05:44 UK
  17. Spain v Czechia · No qualifying value at this price · 2 Oct 05:40 UK
  18. Waalwijk v Emmen · No qualifying value at this price · 2 Oct 05:40 UK
  19. FC Eindhoven v De Graafschap · Qualifying value candidate · 2 Oct 05:40 UK
  20. Cadiz v Leganes · Qualifying value candidate · 2 Oct 05:40 UK
  21. Croatia v England · No qualifying value at this price · 2 Oct 05:40 UK
  22. Belarus v San Marino · No qualifying value at this price · 2 Oct 05:40 UK
  23. Iceland v Bulgaria · No qualifying value at this price · 2 Oct 05:40 UK
  24. FC OSS v MVV · No qualifying value at this price · 2 Oct 05:40 UK
  25. Almeria v Burgos · Qualifying value candidate · 2 Oct 05:40 UK
  26. Albacete v Eibar · Qualifying value candidate · 2 Oct 05:40 UK
  27. Helmond Sport v Heracles · Qualifying value candidate · 2 Oct 05:40 UK
  28. USA v Mexico · No recommendation — prices need checking · 2 Oct 05:38 UK
  29. Spain v Czechia · No recommendation — prices need checking · 2 Oct 05:38 UK
  30. Rouen v Bourg-en-bresse 01 · No recommendation — prices need checking · 2 Oct 05:38 UK