Germany
4/6Wins
1.7Goals / game
1.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 0 losses in that sample. At home, 3 wins from 3 available matches.
Inspect Germany’s results
UEFA Nations LeagueQuarter-finalsTHE MATCH CENTREGermany vs Italy match centre
Full time
3:3
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
J. Kimmich30′ (pen)
J. Musiala36′
T. Kleindienst45′
M. Kean49′
M. Kean69′
G. Raspadori90+5′ (pen)
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
GermanyItaly
—Expected goals · API-Football—
8Shots on target3
22Total Shots9
57%Ball Possession43%
6Corner Kicks4
15Fouls13
3Yellow Cards4
—Red Cards—
0Goalkeeper Saves5
550Total passes414
489Passes accurate346
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Germany 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Italy 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Italy
4/7Wins
2.0Goals / game
1.4Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 3 available matches.
Inspect Italy’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Germany
6 matchesResults4 wins · 2 draws · 0 losses
Goals scored per game1.7
Goals conceded per game1.0
Games with 3+ goals4 of 6
Both teams scored5 of 6
Past results, not predictions.
Italy
7 matchesResults4 wins · 1 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game2.0
Goals conceded per game1.4
Games with 3+ goals6 of 7
Both teams scored6 of 7
Past results, not predictions.
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Germany at home with Italy away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 01:07 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
UEFA Nations League · 2024/25 · all league matches
GermanyItaly
—Matches played—
—Points earned—
—Wins—
—Goals scored / match—
—Goals conceded / match—
—Clean sheets—
—Failed to score—
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Germany at home with Italy away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Germany
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1J. Nagelsmann
- 1
O. BaumannG - 6
J. KimmichD - 2
A. RüdigerD - 4
J. TahD - 15
N. SchlotterbeckD - 16
A. StillerM - 8
L. GoretzkaM - 19
L. SanéM - 10
J. MusialaM - 18
M. MittelstädtM - 9
T. KleindienstF
Substitutes (12)
11 · N. Amiri
20 · K. Adeyemi
5 · P. Groß
17 · Y. Bisseck
23 · R. Andrich
22 · D. Raum
14 · J. Leweling
7 · J. Burkardt
13 · D. Undav
21 · S. Ortega
12 · A. Nübel
3 · R. Koch
Italy
Confirmed formation3-5-2L. Spalletti
- 1
G. DonnarummaG - 5
F. GattiD - 4
A. BuongiornoD - 21
A. BastoniD - 22
G. Di LorenzoM - 18
N. BarellaM - 6
S. RicciM - 8
S. TonaliM - 19
D. UdogieM - 9
M. KeanF - 11
D. MaldiniF
Substitutes (12)
7 · M. Politano
16 · D. Frattesi
10 · G. Raspadori
17 · L. Lucca
20 · M. Zaccagni
2 · R. Bellanova
3 · P. Comuzzo
13 · G. Vicario
14 · N. Rovella
12 · A. Meret
15 · M. Ruggeri
23 · C. Casadei
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Germany
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Baumann | 90 | 5.9 | — | 0 | — | 32 | — |
| Joshua Kimmich | 90 | 8.7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 66 | — |
| Antonio Rüdiger | 77 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 64 | — |
| Jonathan Tah | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 71 | — |
| Nico Schlotterbeck | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 67 | 3 |
| Angelo Stiller | 63 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 59 | — |
| Leon Goretzka | 63 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 2 | 34 | 1 |
| Leroy Sané | 63 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 29 | 1 |
| Jamal Musiala | 77 | 7.7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 45 | — |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt | 90 | 7.0 | — | 0 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Tim Kleindienst | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Pascal Groß | 27 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 18 | 1 |
| Nadiem Amiri | 27 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 9 | — |
| Karim Adeyemi | 27 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 2 | — |
| Yann Bisseck | 13 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Robert Andrich | 13 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 5 | — |
| Alexander Nübel | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefan Ortega | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robin Koch | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Raum | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jamie Leweling | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Burkardt | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Deniz Undav | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Italy
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 34 | — |
| Federico Gatti | 45 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 28 | 1 |
| Alessandro Buongiorno | 90 | 6.0 | — | 0 | — | 38 | 1 |
| Alessandro Bastoni | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 47 | 5 |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 46 | 1 |
| Nicolò Barella | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 48 | 1 |
| Samuele Ricci | 85 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 39 | 1 |
| Sandro Tonali | 68 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 20 | — |
| Destiny Udogie | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 28 | 3 |
| Moise Kean | 85 | 8.2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Daniel Maldini | 45 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Davide Frattesi | 45 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 19 | — |
| Matteo Politano | 45 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 21 | — |
| Giacomo Raspadori | 22 | 8.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Mattia Zaccagni | 15 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 5 | — |
| Lorenzo Lucca | 15 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 2 | — |
| Alex Meret | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guglielmo Vicario | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pietro Comuzzo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raoul Bellanova | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolò Rovella | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Ruggeri | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cesare Casadei | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
2024/25 STANDINGS
League centre ↗UEFA Nations League table
Current standings · League A, Group 2. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
France
Belgium
IsraelTHE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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