Likeliest match result
Seattle Sounders to win52.3% model estimate
Stored odds 1.57 · Betano
Major League SoccerMatchweek 24THE MATCH CENTRESeattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City match centre
2′ · Live
0:0
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Kickoff Edge modelOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
Pre-match research only
Both teams to score — Yes
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Model chance59.0%
Best stored price1.53Betfair
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. Value-filter price: 1.95 or better. No current price qualifies for a recommendation under this filter.
Break-even at this price: 65.4%. Estimated model return: -9.7% per unit staked, before model error.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals58.9% model estimate
Stored odds 1.37 · Pinnacle
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes59.0% model estimate
Stored odds 1.53 · Betfair
Double chance
Either team to win (no draw)77.2% model estimate
Stored odds 1.19 · Betano
Projected goals
3.05 total · Seattle Sounders 1.85 · Sporting Kansas City 1.21
Expected averages from the stored goal model, not a promised score.Most likely scorelines
1–1 10.5%2–1 9.7%1–0 8.7%
Home–away · individual scores remain uncertain.This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Available · Calculated 2 Oct 01:56 UK.
Odds updated 1 Oct 21:01 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 8 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
2′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
Waiting for a stable live match state
Seattle SoundersSporting Kansas City
—Expected goals · API-Football—
0Shots on target0
0Total Shots0
48%Ball Possession52%
0Corner Kicks0
—Fouls—
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
—Goalkeeper Saves—
—Total passes—
—Passes accurate—
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Western ConferenceProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | +33 | 50 | — |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 27 | +12 | 47 | — |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 27 | +8 | 47 | — |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | +10 | 45 | — |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 27 | +2 | 44 | — |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 28 | +13 | 41 | — |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 27 | 0 | 36 | — |
| 8 |  Seattle Sounders | 27 | -1 | 36 | ↑ 1 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | -7 | 36 | ↓ 1 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 27 | 0 | 32 | ↑ 2 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 27 | -3 | 32 | ↓ 1 |
| 12 |  Real Salt Lake | 27 | -4 | 32 | ↓ 1 |
| 13 |  Austin | 27 | -12 | 31 | — |
| 14 |  Minnesota United FC | 27 | -9 | 29 | — |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 27 | -32 | 22 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Seattle Sounders 7 reported
S. BrunellInternational duty
Reported out
H. DotsonYellow Cards
Reported out
D. JoveljicInternational duty
Reported out
N. PetkovicKnee Injury
Reported out
P. RothrockTendon Injury
Reported out
P. de La VegaCalf Injury
Reported out
J. FerreiraMuscle Injury
DoubtfulSporting Kansas City 6 reported
O. BlorianChest Injury
Reported out
CapitaHamstring Injury
Reported out
J. DavisInjury
Reported out
Diego BorgesGroin Injury
Reported out
M. MosqueraHamstring Injury
Reported out
O. WolffMuscle Injury
DoubtfulFetched 2 Oct, 01:00 UK. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Kickoff Edge · xG model leans towards Seattle Sounders (52.3%). The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Seattle Sounders
2/10Wins
1.4Goals / game
1.4Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Seattle Sounders’s resultsSporting Kansas City
2/10Wins
1.3Goals / game
2.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 7 losses in that sample. At away venues, 2 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Sporting Kansas City’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Seattle Sounders
10 matchesResults2 wins · 5 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.4
Goals conceded per game1.4
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Minnesota United FCHome · Major League Soccer3–1Real Salt LakeHome · Major League Soccer2–0Colorado RapidsAway · Major League Soccer3–3Los Angeles GalaxyAway · Major League Soccer1–1New York Red BullsHome · Major League Soccer0–0Chicago FireHome · Major League Soccer2–2FC CincinnatiAway · Major League Soccer1–1AustinHome · Major League Soccer1–2Vancouver WhitecapsHome · Major League Soccer0–2Guadalajara ChivasHome · Leagues Cup1–2
Sporting Kansas City
10 matchesResults2 wins · 1 draws · 7 losses
Goals scored per game1.3
Goals conceded per game2.3
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Houston DynamoAway · Major League Soccer2–0Philadelphia UnionHome · Major League Soccer3–4Los Angeles FCHome · Major League Soccer3–1FC DallasAway · Major League Soccer3–4Vancouver WhitecapsHome · Major League Soccer0–3Atlanta United FCAway · Major League Soccer1–2St. Louis CityHome · Major League Soccer1–1Colorado RapidsAway · Major League Soccer0–2Houston DynamoHome · Major League Soccer0–2Los Angeles FCAway · Major League Soccer0–4
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Seattle Sounders at home with Sporting Kansas City away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:42 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Major League Soccer · 2026/27 · all league matches
Seattle SoundersSporting Kansas City
26Matches played26
35Points earned21
9Wins6
1.3Goals scored / match1.2
1.3Goals conceded / match2.4
7Clean sheets1
6Failed to score9
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Seattle Sounders at home with Sporting Kansas City away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
5 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Seattle Sounders
3wins5MEETINGS
Sporting Kansas City
1winsJun 2024 – May 2026 · Past results, not a forecast.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Seattle Sounders
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1B. Schmetzer
- 26
A. ThomasG - 16
A. RoldanD - 39
S. HawkinsD - 25
J. RagenD - 5
N. ToloD - 45
P. KingstonM - 7
C. RoldanM - 13
J. MorrisM - 11
A. RusnákM - 17
P. ArriolaM - 19
D. MusovskiF
Substitutes (8)
8 · C. Clark
24 · S. Frei
28 · Y. Gómez
90 · S. Gomez
85 · K. Kossa-Rienzi
4 · R. Sailor
35 · Antino Lopez
81 · M. Bronnik
Sporting Kansas City
Confirmed formation4-4-2R. Wicky
- 30
S. ClevelandG - 13
J. ReynoldsD - 15
Jansen MillerD - 28
Wyatt MeyerD - 18
E. KarićD - 11
André LuizM - 4
L. JohnsenM - 20
K. AgyabengM - 14
C. HarrisM - 19
T. CalheiraF - 17
S. AfrifaF
Substitutes (9)
1 · J. Pulskamp
99 · J. Reid
29 · S. Reid
93 · M. Suleymanov
2 · I. James
22 · Z. Bassong
23 · E. Bartlow
16 · J. Bartlett
42 · Alexander Cunningham
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Seattle Sounders | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.49 | 4.65 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 4.83 | 5.33 |
| SBO | 1.45 | 4.51 | 5.13 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
Snapshot from 1 Oct 2026, 21:01 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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