Likeliest match result
Sacramento Republic to win61.0% market implied
Stored odds 1.54 · Pinnacle
USL ChampionshipGroup StageTHE MATCH CENTRESacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights match centre
Full time
3:2
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
M. Rodriguez36′
T. Wolff58′
K. Edwards82′
O. Anderson13′
C. Locker50′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Bookmaker marketOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
Pre-match research only
Sacramento Republic to win
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Market-implied chance61.0%
Best stored price1.54Pinnacle
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. A market-based lean does not establish a profitable edge.
Break-even at this price: 64.9%.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals50.7% market implied
Stored odds 1.90 · Bet365
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No52.4% market implied
Stored odds 1.83 · William Hill
Double chance
Sacramento Republic or draw83.9% market implied
Stored odds 1.16 · Betano
Projected team goals and scorelines are unavailable until a current, consistent Kickoff Edge goal model passes review. The goals market above is a separate bookmaker view.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated 1 Oct 01:02 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 9 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
Sacramento RepublicLas Vegas Lights
The score is available. Detailed match statistics have not been supplied yet.
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Sacramento Republic 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Las Vegas Lights 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Sacramento Republic
5/10Wins
1.7Goals / game
0.7Conceded / game
Keep in view: 0 losses in that sample. At home, 6 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Sacramento Republic’s resultsLas Vegas Lights
4/10Wins
0.9Goals / game
0.9Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At away venues, 6 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Las Vegas Lights’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Sacramento Republic
10 matchesResults5 wins · 5 draws · 0 losses
Goals scored per game1.7
Goals conceded per game0.7
Games with 3+ goals4 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
New Mexico UnitedAway · USL Championship3–2San AntonioHome · USL Championship0–0Detroit CityHome · USL Championship1–0Orange County SCAway · USL Championship1–1Monterey BayAway · USL Championship1–1Phoenix RisingHome · USL Championship2–2LexingtonHome · USL Championship1–0Pittsburgh RiverhoundsAway · USL Championship0–0Sporting JAXHome · USL Championship5–0Oakland RootsAway · USL Championship3–1
Las Vegas Lights
10 matchesResults4 wins · 3 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game0.9
Goals conceded per game0.9
Games with 3+ goals2 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Hartford AthleticHome · USL Championship1–1Orange County SCAway · USL Championship2–0New Mexico UnitedHome · USL Championship1–2Charleston BatteryHome · USL Championship0–2LexingtonAway · USL Championship0–2BrooklynHome · USL Championship2–1Miami FCAway · USL Championship1–0Oakland RootsHome · USL Championship0–0Phoenix RisingHome · USL Championship1–1Detroit CityAway · USL Championship1–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Sacramento Republic at home with Las Vegas Lights away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 00:23 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
USL Championship · 2026/27 · all league matches
Sacramento RepublicLas Vegas Lights
24Matches played25
37Points earned33
9Wins9
1.3Goals scored / match1.3
0.9Goals conceded / match1.4
9Clean sheets7
6Failed to score4
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Sacramento Republic at home with Las Vegas Lights away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Sacramento Republic
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Las Vegas Lights
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗USL Championship table
Current standings · USL Championship. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  El Paso Locomotive | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 46 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  New Mexico United | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 43 | DDDWL |
| 3 |  Colorado Springs | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 3 | 38 | DWWWL |
| 4 |  San Antonio | 25 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 29 | 28 | 1 | 37 | DLDWL |
| 5 | Sacramento Republic | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 37 | DWDDD |
| 6 |  FC Tulsa | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 37 | DLDWW |
| 7 |  Lexington | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 37 | WWLLL |
| 8 |  Orange County SC | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 36 | LLDDL |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 33 | DWLLL |
| 10 |  Phoenix Rising | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 33 | LWDWD |
| 11 |  Oakland Roots | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 30 | WLDWD |
| 12 |  Monterey Bay | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 18 | LDDLD |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Sacramento Republic | Draw | Las Vegas Lights |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 3.92 | 5.75 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.00 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.54 | 4.27 | 5.79 |
| SBO | 1.46 | 3.52 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
Snapshot from 1 Oct 2026, 01:02 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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