Likeliest match result
New Mexico United to win44.8% market implied
Stored odds 2.19 · Pinnacle
USL ChampionshipGroup StageTHE MATCH CENTRENew Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising match centre
Pre-match
23:00
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Bookmaker marketOur view of the game
Our model is Unavailable. This alternative view comes from margin-adjusted bookmaker prices.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Either team to win (no draw)
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Market-implied chance75.3%
Best stored price1.25Betano
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. A market-based lean does not establish a profitable edge.
Break-even at this price: 80.0%.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals59.8% market implied
Stored odds 1.61 · 1xBet
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes61.7% market implied
Stored odds 1.53 · Bet365
Double chance
Either team to win (no draw)75.3% market implied
Stored odds 1.25 · Betano
Projected team goals and scorelines are unavailable until a current, consistent Kickoff Edge goal model passes review. The goals market above is a separate bookmaker view.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated 1 Oct 03:15 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 6 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
New Mexico United 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Phoenix Rising 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
See the match forecast for model details.API-Football
Provider model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
Awaiting provider forecastProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
New Mexico United
3/10Wins
1.4Goals / game
1.4Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 5 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect New Mexico United’s resultsPhoenix Rising
3/10Wins
1.2Goals / game
1.4Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At away venues, 0 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Phoenix Rising’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
New Mexico United
10 matchesResults3 wins · 4 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.4
Goals conceded per game1.4
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
FC TulsaAway · USL Championship0–1Sacramento RepublicHome · USL Championship2–3Colorado SpringsAway · USL Championship0–0Birmingham LegionAway · USL Championship4–4Indy ElevenHome · USL Championship2–2Las Vegas LightsAway · USL Championship2–1San AntonioHome · USL Championship1–2LexingtonHome · USL Championship2–1Loudoun UnitedAway · USL Championship0–0FC TulsaHome · USL Championship1–0
Phoenix Rising
10 matchesResults3 wins · 4 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.2
Goals conceded per game1.4
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Oakland RootsAway · USL Championship0–3El Paso LocomotiveHome · USL Championship1–3FC TulsaHome · USL Championship2–1Monterey BayAway · USL Championship1–1Indy ElevenHome · USL Championship2–1Sacramento RepublicAway · USL Championship2–2Colorado SpringsHome · USL Championship3–1LexingtonAway · USL Championship0–1Las Vegas LightsAway · USL Championship1–1Hartford AthleticHome · USL Championship0–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare New Mexico United at home with Phoenix Rising away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:02 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
USL Championship · 2026/27 · all league matches
New Mexico UnitedPhoenix Rising
24Matches played25
43Points earned33
12Wins8
1.6Goals scored / match1.4
1.2Goals conceded / match1.4
8Clean sheets5
6Failed to score5
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares New Mexico United at home with Phoenix Rising away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
3 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
New Mexico United
1wins3MEETINGS
Phoenix Rising
1winsJun 2025 – Apr 2026 · Past results, not a forecast.
Scores shown with New Mexico United first; venues vary.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
New Mexico United
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Phoenix Rising
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗USL Championship table
Current standings · USL Championship. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  El Paso Locomotive | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 46 | WWWWW |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 43 | DDDWL |
| 3 |  Colorado Springs | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 3 | 38 | DWWWL |
| 4 |  San Antonio | 25 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 29 | 28 | 1 | 37 | DLDWL |
| 5 |  Sacramento Republic | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 37 | DWDDD |
| 6 |  FC Tulsa | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 37 | DLDWW |
| 7 |  Lexington | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 37 | WWLLL |
| 8 |  Orange County SC | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 36 | LLDDL |
| 9 |  Las Vegas Lights | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 33 | DWLLL |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 33 | LWDWD |
| 11 |  Oakland Roots | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 30 | WLDWD |
| 12 |  Monterey Bay | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 18 | LDDLD |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | New Mexico United | Draw | Phoenix Rising |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 3.58 | 2.93 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.73 | 2.92 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| 1xBet | 2.13 | 4.04 | 3.02 |
Snapshot from 1 Oct 2026, 03:15 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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