Likeliest match result
VVV Venlo to win37.8% model estimate
Stored odds 2.42 · Betano
Eerste DivisieMatchweek 9THE MATCH CENTREVVV Venlo vs Roda match centre
Pre-match
13:30
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Kickoff Edge modelOur view of the game
A likely outcome and a good betting price are separate decisions.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Either team to win (no draw)
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Model chance75.3%
Best stored price1.29William Hill
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. Value-filter price: 1.50 or better. No current price qualifies for a recommendation under this filter.
Break-even at this price: 77.5%. Estimated model return: -2.9% per unit staked, before model error.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals55.8% model estimate
Stored odds 1.57 · Betano
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes58.9% model estimate
Stored odds 1.47 · Betano
Double chance
Either team to win (no draw)75.3% model estimate
Stored odds 1.29 · William Hill
Projected goals
2.92 total · VVV Venlo 1.46 · Roda 1.45
Expected averages from the stored goal model, not a promised score.Most likely scorelines
1–1 11.5%2–1 8.4%1–2 8.4%
Home–away · individual scores remain uncertain.This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Available · Calculated 2 Oct 06:40 UK.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:33 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 8 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
VVV Venlo 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Roda 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Fetched 2 Oct, 05:36 UK. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
Home37.8%
Draw24.7%
Away37.5%
API-Football
Provider model estimate
Home45.0%
Draw45.0%
Away10.0%
Double chance : VVV Venlo or draw
Fetched 2 Oct, 06:38 UKProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Kickoff Edge · xG model leans towards VVV Venlo (37.8%). The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
VVV Venlo
5/10Wins
2.3Goals / game
1.8Conceded / game
Keep in view: 5 losses in that sample. At home, 7 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect VVV Venlo’s resultsRoda
5/10Wins
1.2Goals / game
0.9Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 2 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Roda’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
VVV Venlo
10 matchesResults5 wins · 0 draws · 5 losses
Goals scored per game2.3
Goals conceded per game1.8
Games with 3+ goals8 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
FC VolendamAway · Eerste Divisie2–3Jong UtrechtAway · Eerste Divisie3–1FC OSSHome · Eerste Divisie3–1Helmond SportAway · Eerste Divisie2–4EmmenHome · Eerste Divisie4–0De GraafschapHome · Eerste Divisie2–1NAC BredaAway · Eerste Divisie2–0HeraclesHome · Eerste Divisie3–4AS EupenHome · Friendlies Clubs2–3Fortuna KölnHome · Friendlies Clubs0–1
Roda
10 matchesResults5 wins · 3 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.2
Goals conceded per game0.9
Games with 3+ goals3 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
WaalwijkHome · Eerste Divisie2–0Jong AjaxAway · Eerste Divisie0–0VitesseHome · Eerste Divisie1–0MVVAway · Eerste Divisie1–1NAC BredaHome · Eerste Divisie2–2DordrechtAway · Eerste Divisie1–0Helmond SportHome · Eerste Divisie2–1EmmenAway · Eerste Divisie0–1Alemannia AachenHome · Friendlies Clubs2–4Beerschot VAHome · Friendlies Clubs1–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare VVV Venlo at home with Roda away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 07:39 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Eerste Divisie · 2026/27 · all league matches
VVV VenloRoda
7Matches played7
15Points earned12
5Wins3
2.7Goals scored / match1.0
1.6Goals conceded / match0.7
2Clean sheets3
0Failed to score2
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares VVV Venlo at home with Roda away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
VVV Venlo
Most-used league formation4-2-3-14 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Roda
Most-used league formation3-4-2-14 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Eerste Divisie table
Current standings · Eerste Divisie: Regular season. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 21 | WLWWW |
| 2 |  Almere City FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 16 | LWWLW |
| 3 |  MVV | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 16 | WLLDW |
| 4 | VVV Venlo | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 15 | LWWLW |
| 5 | Roda | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 15 | WDWDD |
| 6 |  Emmen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 15 | WLLWL |
| 7 |  Waalwijk | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 8 |  Vitesse | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 13 | LWLWW |
| 9 |  NAC Breda | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 13 | WWLLD |
| 10 |  Jong AZ | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 13 | WDLWW |
| 11 |  FC Volendam | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 12 |  Jong PSV U21 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 | LDLWD |
| 13 |  FC Eindhoven | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 10 | LWWDL |
| 14 |  Helmond Sport | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 8 | LLWWL |
| 15 |  Jong Ajax | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 16 |  Den Bosch | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 7 | LWLLL |
| 17 |  Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 7 | WLLLL |
| 18 |  De Graafschap | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 7 | WLWLL |
| 19 |  Jong Utrecht | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 7 | LWWDL |
| 20 |  FC OSS | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | LWLLW |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | VVV Venlo | Draw | Roda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 2.34 | 3.68 | 2.58 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.80 | 2.63 |
| Pinnacle | 2.38 | 3.76 | 2.64 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.80 | 2.60 |
Snapshot from 2 Oct 2026, 01:33 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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