Likeliest match result
Cacereño to win45.3% model estimate
Stored odds 3.35 · Betano
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 6THE MATCH CENTREMérida AD vs Cacereño match centre
Pre-match
17:45
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Kickoff Edge modelOur view of the game
A likely outcome and a good betting price are separate decisions.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Either team to win (no draw)
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Model chance73.5%
Best stored price1.30William Hill
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. Value-filter price: 1.54 or better. No current price qualifies for a recommendation under this filter.
Break-even at this price: 76.9%. Estimated model return: -4.5% per unit staked, before model error.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Under 2.5 goals54.6% model estimate
Stored odds 1.94 · 1xBet
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No50.2% model estimate
Stored odds 2.01 · 1xBet
Double chance
Either team to win (no draw)73.5% model estimate
Stored odds 1.30 · William Hill
Projected goals
2.49 total · Mérida AD 1.06 · Cacereño 1.43
Expected averages from the stored goal model, not a promised score.Most likely scorelines
1–1 12.6%0–1 11.8%1–2 9.0%
Home–away · individual scores remain uncertain.This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Available · Calculated 2 Oct 08:14 UK.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 7 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Mérida AD 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Cacereño 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
Mérida AD28.2%
Draw26.5%
Cacereño45.3%
API-Football
Provider model estimate
Provider forecast under review
Provider percentages are missing or invalid.
Provider team identities do not match this fixture.
Provider forecast is missing a current timestamp or is more than two hours old.
Provider competition sample for the home team is fewer than five matches or unavailable.
Provider competition sample for the away team is fewer than five matches or unavailable.
Awaiting provider forecastProvider percentages and advice are withheld when team identities, freshness, competition samples or large bookmaker disagreements fail our quality checks. Accepted percentages are shown as supplied; they are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Team-strength v3 fallback leans towards Cacereño (45.3%). The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Mérida AD
3/10Wins
1.1Goals / game
2.2Conceded / game
Keep in view: 7 losses in that sample. At home, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Mérida AD’s resultsCacereño
6/10Wins
1.3Goals / game
0.5Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Cacereño’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Mérida AD
10 matchesResults3 wins · 0 draws · 7 losses
Goals scored per game1.1
Goals conceded per game2.2
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
UD LogroñésHome · Primera División RFEF - Group 13–5PonferradinaAway · Primera División RFEF - Group 10–1MirandesHome · Primera División RFEF - Group 13–4Cultural LeonesaAway · Primera División RFEF - Group 10–1Deportivo La Coruña IIHome · Primera División RFEF - Group 11–0AlcorconHome · Friendlies Clubs2–1LeganesAway · Friendlies Clubs0–3Al-NassrHome · Friendlies Clubs0–2Benfica BAway · Friendlies Clubs0–4Osasuna IIAway · Primera División RFEF - Group 12–1
Cacereño
10 matchesResults6 wins · 2 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.3
Goals conceded per game0.5
Games with 3+ goals3 of 10
Both teams scored3 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
UD OurenseAway · Primera División RFEF - Group 10–0Arenas GetxoHome · Primera División RFEF - Group 13–0Recreativo HuelvaAway · Copa Federacion1–2Cultural LeonesaHome · Primera División RFEF - Group 11–0UD San PedroHome · Copa Federacion2–0Deportivo La Coruña IIAway · Primera División RFEF - Group 11–1MirandesHome · Primera División RFEF - Group 11–0Unionistas de SalamancaAway · Friendlies Clubs0–1GévoraHome · Friendlies Clubs2–1VillanovenseAway · Friendlies Clubs2–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Mérida AD at home with Cacereño away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 08:38 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 2026/27 · all league matches
Mérida ADCacereño
—Matches played—
—Points earned—
—Wins—
—Goals scored / match—
—Goals conceded / match—
—Clean sheets—
—Failed to score—
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Mérida AD at home with Cacereño away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Mérida AD
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Cacereño
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
Current standings · Segunda B: Group 1. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UD Logroñés | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Lugo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 13 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Athletic Club II | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 | Cacereño | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 11 | DWWDW |
| 5 |  Mirandes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  Pontevedra | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 8 | DDLWW |
| 7 |  Deportivo La Coruña II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 8 | WDWDL |
| 8 |  Ponferradina | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | DWLDW |
| 9 |  Cultural Leonesa | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | DWLWD |
| 10 |  Real Unión | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 11 |  Zamora | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 12 |  Racing Ferrol | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 | LWWLD |
| 13 |  Real Avilés | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 | DDWLL |
| 14 |  CD Coria | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 | DDLWL |
| 15 |  Barakaldo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 | DLWLD |
| 16 |  Extremadura 1924 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | LLLWL |
| 17 | Mérida AD | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 | LLLLW |
| 18 |  Unionistas de Salamanca | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 19 |  UD Ourense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 | DLLLL |
| 20 |  Arenas Getxo | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 | LLLLD |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Mérida AD | Draw | Cacereño |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 2.04 | 3.24 | 3.12 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.32 | 3.31 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
Snapshot from 2 Oct 2026, 01:30 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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