Likeliest match result
Real Unión to win63.5% model estimate
Stored odds 1.35 · 1xBet
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 6THE MATCH CENTREReal Unión vs UD Ourense match centre
Pre-match
15:30
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Kickoff Edge modelOur view of the game
A likely outcome and a good betting price are separate decisions.
Qualifying value candidate
UD Ourense or draw
This is the highest-probability selection among the prices that pass our conservative value filter.
Model chance36.5%
Best stored price3.40Betano
Value-filter price: 3.34 or better. The stored price passes; confirm it is still available.
Break-even at this price: 29.4%. Estimated model return: +24.1% per unit staked, before model error.
Track this single in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals55.3% model estimate
Stored odds 1.68 · 1xBet
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes50.9% model estimate
Stored odds 1.98 · Betano
Double chance
Real Unión or draw84.2% model estimate
Stored odds 1.08 · William Hill
Projected goals
2.90 total · Real Unión 2.01 · UD Ourense 0.89
Expected averages from the stored goal model, not a promised score.Most likely scorelines
2–0 11.1%1–0 11.1%2–1 9.9%
Home–away · individual scores remain uncertain.View this saved decision and its original price →
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Available · Calculated 2 Oct 02:30 UK.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK · Within the price-age checks. Match-winner reference: 7 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Real Unión 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
UD Ourense 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
Home63.5%
Draw20.7%
Away15.8%
API-Football
Provider model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
Awaiting provider forecastProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Team-strength v3 fallback leans towards Real Unión (63.5%). The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Real Unión
4/10Wins
2.1Goals / game
1.8Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 6 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Real Unión’s resultsUD Ourense
3/10Wins
0.7Goals / game
1.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At away venues, 2 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect UD Ourense’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Real Unión
10 matchesResults4 wins · 3 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game2.1
Goals conceded per game1.8
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Deportivo La Coruña IIAway · Primera División RFEF - Group 10–2MirandesHome · Primera División RFEF - Group 12–2Racing FerrolAway · Primera División RFEF - Group 12–3Unionistas de SalamancaAway · Primera División RFEF - Group 14–2CD CoriaHome · Primera División RFEF - Group 14–1EibarHome · Friendlies Clubs1–1PAUAway · Friendlies Clubs2–1AlfaroHome · Segunda División RFEF - Group 22–0Real Zaragoza IIAway · Segunda División RFEF - Group 21–3AmorebietaHome · Segunda División RFEF - Group 23–3
UD Ourense
10 matchesResults3 wins · 3 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game0.7
Goals conceded per game1.1
Games with 3+ goals3 of 10
Both teams scored3 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
CacereñoHome · Primera División RFEF - Group 10–0Unionistas de SalamancaAway · Primera División RFEF - Group 11–3UD LogroñésHome · Primera División RFEF - Group 10–3MirandesAway · Primera División RFEF - Group 10–2PonferradinaHome · Primera División RFEF - Group 10–1ConquenseAway · Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs2–0ConquenseHome · Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs1–0ReddisHome · Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs2–1ReddisAway · Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs0–0Atlético AstorgaHome · Segunda División RFEF - Group 11–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Real Unión at home with UD Ourense away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:55 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 2026/27 · all league matches
Real UniónUD Ourense
—Matches played—
—Points earned—
—Wins—
—Goals scored / match—
—Goals conceded / match—
—Clean sheets—
—Failed to score—
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Real Unión at home with UD Ourense away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Real Unión
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
UD Ourense
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
Current standings · Segunda B: Group 1. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UD Logroñés | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Lugo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 13 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Athletic Club II | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 11 | WDWWD |
| 4 |  Cacereño | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 11 | DWWDW |
| 5 |  Mirandes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  Pontevedra | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 8 | DDLWW |
| 7 |  Deportivo La Coruña II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 8 | WDWDL |
| 8 |  Ponferradina | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | DWLDW |
| 9 |  Cultural Leonesa | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | DWLWD |
| 10 | Real Unión | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 11 |  Zamora | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 | WLWLD |
| 12 |  Racing Ferrol | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 | LWWLD |
| 13 |  Real Avilés | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 | DDWLL |
| 14 |  CD Coria | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 5 | DDLWL |
| 15 |  Barakaldo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 | DLWLD |
| 16 |  Extremadura 1924 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | LLLWL |
| 17 |  Mérida AD | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3 | LLLLW |
| 18 |  Unionistas de Salamanca | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 1 | DLLLL |
| 20 |  Arenas Getxo | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 | LLLLD |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Real Unión | Draw | UD Ourense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.28 | 4.80 | 7.80 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.32 | 5.15 | 7.03 |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 4.33 | 7.00 |
Snapshot from 2 Oct 2026, 01:15 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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