Likeliest match result
Ourense CF to win47.4% market implied
Stored odds 2.10 · Bet365
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 5THE MATCH CENTREOurense CF vs Arosa match centre
Pre-match
16:00
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Bookmaker marketOur view of the game
Our model is Unavailable. This alternative view comes from margin-adjusted bookmaker prices.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Ourense CF or draw
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Market-implied chance74.4%
Best stored price1.30Bet365
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. A market-based lean does not establish a profitable edge.
Break-even at this price: 76.9%.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Under 2.5 goals52.1% market implied
Stored odds 1.86 · 1xBet
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes50.8% market implied
Stored odds 1.85 · William Hill
Double chance
Ourense CF or draw74.4% market implied
Stored odds 1.30 · Bet365
Projected team goals and scorelines are unavailable until a current, consistent Kickoff Edge goal model passes review. The goals market above is a separate bookmaker view.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 7 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Ourense CF 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Arosa 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
See the match forecast for model details.API-Football
Provider model estimate
Provider forecast under review
Provider percentages are missing or invalid.
Provider team identities do not match this fixture.
Provider forecast is missing a current timestamp or is more than two hours old.
Provider competition sample for the home team is fewer than five matches or unavailable.
Provider competition sample for the away team is fewer than five matches or unavailable.
Awaiting provider forecastProvider percentages and advice are withheld when team identities, freshness, competition samples or large bookmaker disagreements fail our quality checks. Accepted percentages are shown as supplied; they are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
FROM OUR STORED RESULTS
Experimental researchKickoff Edge history fallback
The provider forecast failed our quality checks and a verified primary forecast is unavailable. This separate estimate uses Ourense CF’s 20 and Arosa’s 20 prior completed games across competitions.
Ourense CF36.4%
Draw25.8%
Arosa37.8%
Up to 20 stored results per team in the previous year; 180-day decay; five-match prior at 1.35 goals; joint Poisson score model. No opponent-strength, lineup or xG adjustment; not calibrated or eligible for tips. The bookmaker comparison is a quality check; odds do not enter this model. Inspect the recorded results.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Ourense CF
4/10Wins
1.2Goals / game
1.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At home, 5 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Ourense CF’s resultsArosa
5/10Wins
1.6Goals / game
1.8Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At away venues, 7 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Arosa’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Ourense CF
10 matchesResults4 wins · 2 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game1.2
Goals conceded per game1.3
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
AmorebietaAway · Segunda División RFEF - Group 11–0Eibar IIHome · Segunda División RFEF - Group 10–2Marino de LuancoAway · Segunda División RFEF - Group 12–0BasconiaHome · Segunda División RFEF - Group 12–1LugoAway · Friendlies Clubs0–1PontevedraAway · Friendlies Clubs1–2TenerifeHome · Primera División RFEF - Group 12–1CF TalaveraAway · Primera División RFEF - Group 10–0Celta de Vigo IIHome · Primera División RFEF - Group 12–4Athletic Club IIAway · Primera División RFEF - Group 12–2
Arosa
10 matchesResults5 wins · 2 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.6
Goals conceded per game1.8
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Deportivo Alavés IIHome · Segunda División RFEF - Group 12–5BasconiaAway · Segunda División RFEF - Group 12–2GernikaHome · Segunda División RFEF - Group 10–4AmorebietaAway · Segunda División RFEF - Group 12–2PontevedraHome · Friendlies Clubs3–1CeltigaHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 13–2CambadosAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12–0BoiroHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11–0BarcoAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11–0CompostelaHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 10–2
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Ourense CF at home with Arosa away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 12:58 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 2026/27 · all league matches
Ourense CFArosa
—Matches played—
—Points earned—
—Wins—
—Goals scored / match—
—Goals conceded / match—
—Clean sheets—
—Failed to score—
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Ourense CF at home with Arosa away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Ourense CF
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Arosa
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table
Current standings · Segunda Rfef: Group 1. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gernika | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 7 | WWD |
| 2 |  Bergantiños | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 3 |  Portugalete | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 |  Eibar II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | WWL |
| 5 |  Deportivo Alavés II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | WWL |
| 6 | Ourense CF | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 7 |  Sestao River | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 8 |  Coruxo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | LDW |
| 9 |  Amorebieta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | WLD |
| 10 |  Basconia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 | DWL |
| 11 |  Compostela | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 | WDL |
| 12 |  Atlético Astorga | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | WLL |
| 13 |  Marino de Luanco | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | LLW |
| 14 |  Real Oviedo II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 15 |  Gimnástica Torrelavega | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | LLW |
| 16 | Arosa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 | DLD |
| 17 |  Racing Santander II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 18 |  Llanera | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Ourense CF | Draw | Arosa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.14 | 3.74 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.89 | 3.17 | 3.93 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
Snapshot from 2 Oct 2026, 01:30 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
PUT YOUR VIEW TO THE TEST
Open practice slip +Try it with virtual funds
Start with £1,000 virtual funds. Choose a single or combine different matches in an accumulator, then track confirmed results. No real money. Record an actual bet in your manual journal ↗
Football data. A clearer perspective.Back to matches →