Likeliest match result
Castellonense to win53.0% market implied
Stored odds 1.78 · 1xBet
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 5THE MATCH CENTRECastellonense vs Real Murcia II match centre
Pre-match
10:45
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Bookmaker marketOur view of the game
Our model is Unavailable. This alternative view comes from margin-adjusted bookmaker prices.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Either team to win (no draw)
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Market-implied chance74.7%
Best stored price1.25William Hill
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. A market-based lean does not establish a profitable edge.
Break-even at this price: 80.0%.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Under 2.5 goals51.8% market implied
Stored odds 1.87 · 1xBet
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No50.3% market implied
Stored odds 1.85 · William Hill
Double chance
Castellonense or draw78.3% market implied
Stored odds 1.20 · William Hill
Projected team goals and scorelines are unavailable until a current, consistent Kickoff Edge goal model passes review. The goals market above is a separate bookmaker view.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 7 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Castellonense 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Real Murcia II 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
See the match forecast for model details.API-Football
Provider model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
Awaiting provider forecastProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Castellonense
5/10Wins
1.4Goals / game
1.2Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At home, 7 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Castellonense’s resultsReal Murcia II
4/10Wins
1.3Goals / game
1.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Real Murcia II’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Castellonense
10 matchesResults5 wins · 1 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game1.4
Goals conceded per game1.2
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Lorca DeportivaAway · Segunda División RFEF - Group 30–1CiezaHome · Segunda División RFEF - Group 31–0PoblenseAway · Segunda División RFEF - Group 32–1Ucam MurciaHome · Segunda División RFEF - Group 32–1AtzenetaHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 60–1Hércules IIAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 64–1SaguntinoHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 61–1Ontinyent 1931Home · Tercera División RFEF - Group 62–3Villarreal IIIAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 60–3La NucÃaHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 62–0
Real Murcia II
10 matchesResults4 wins · 3 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.3
Goals conceded per game1.3
Games with 3+ goals4 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Peña DeportivaAway · Segunda División RFEF - Group 32–0Mallorca IIHome · Segunda División RFEF - Group 30–1La NucíaAway · Segunda División RFEF - Group 31–5OrihuelaHome · Segunda División RFEF - Group 31–2PamplonaAway · Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs1–1PamplonaHome · Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs2–1OlÃmpico TotanaHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 132–1Olímpico TotanaAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 131–1Mazarrón FCHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 132–0Mazarrón FCAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 131–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Castellonense at home with Real Murcia II away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 06:45 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 2026/27 · all league matches
CastellonenseReal Murcia II
—Matches played—
—Points earned—
—Wins—
—Goals scored / match—
—Goals conceded / match—
—Clean sheets—
—Failed to score—
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Castellonense at home with Real Murcia II away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Castellonense
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Real Murcia II
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table
Current standings · Group 3. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  La Nucía | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Castellonense | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Orihuela | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | DWW |
| 4 |  Castellón II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | WWL |
| 5 |  Ucam Murcia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | WWL |
| 6 |  Intercity | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | DDW |
| 7 |  Deportiva Minera | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | DDW |
| 8 |  Mallorca II | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | WDD |
| 9 |  Cieza | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | LWD |
| 10 |  Elche II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | WLD |
| 11 |  Yeclano | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | LDW |
| 12 |  Alcoyano | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 | WLD |
| 13 |  Lorca Deportiva | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | DLD |
| 14 |  Valencia II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | LLD |
| 15 |  Peña Deportiva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 | LDL |
| 16 |  Atlético Baleares | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 | LDL |
| 17 |  Poblense | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 | Real Murcia II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Castellonense | Draw | Real Murcia II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 3.44 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 3.62 | 4.12 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
Snapshot from 2 Oct 2026, 01:30 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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