Likeliest match result
Fleury 91 to win37.9% model estimate
Stored odds 2.49 · Pinnacle
Ligue 3Matchweek 9THE MATCH CENTREFleury 91 vs Caen match centre
Pre-match
19:45
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Kickoff Edge modelOur view of the game
A likely outcome and a good betting price are separate decisions.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Either team to win (no draw)
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Model chance74.6%
Best stored price1.30William Hill
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. Value-filter price: 1.51 or better. No current price qualifies for a recommendation under this filter.
Break-even at this price: 76.9%. Estimated model return: -3.0% per unit staked, before model error.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals52.4% model estimate
Stored odds 1.70 · Bet365
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes56.2% model estimate
Stored odds 1.67 · Bet365
Double chance
Either team to win (no draw)74.6% model estimate
Stored odds 1.30 · William Hill
Projected goals
2.77 total · Fleury 91 1.40 · Caen 1.37
Expected averages from the stored goal model, not a promised score.Most likely scorelines
1–1 12.0%1–0 8.8%0–1 8.6%
Home–away · individual scores remain uncertain.View this saved decision and its original price →
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Available · Calculated 2 Oct 02:30 UK.
Odds updated 1 Oct 17:27 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 8 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Fleury 91 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Caen 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
Home37.9%
Draw25.4%
Away36.6%
API-Football
Provider model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
Awaiting provider forecastProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Team-strength v3 fallback leans towards Fleury 91 (37.9%). The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Fleury 91
2/10Wins
1.4Goals / game
1.5Conceded / game
Keep in view: 5 losses in that sample. At home, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Fleury 91’s resultsCaen
6/10Wins
2.0Goals / game
1.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At away venues, 4 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Caen’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Fleury 91
10 matchesResults2 wins · 3 draws · 5 losses
Goals scored per game1.4
Goals conceded per game1.5
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
Caen
10 matchesResults6 wins · 1 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game2.0
Goals conceded per game1.1
Games with 3+ goals4 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Fleury 91 at home with Caen away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:54 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Ligue 3 · 2026/27 · all league matches
Fleury 91Caen
—Matches played—
—Points earned—
—Wins—
—Goals scored / match—
—Goals conceded / match—
—Clean sheets—
—Failed to score—
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Fleury 91 at home with Caen away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Fleury 91
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Caen
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Ligue 3 table
Current standings · National. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  La Roche VF | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 18 | WWDDW |
| 2 |  Rouen | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 17 | LWWDW |
| 3 | Caen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 15 | WLWWL |
| 4 |  Concarneau | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | DWWDD |
| 5 |  Versailles | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 13 | WDWLL |
| 6 |  Amiens | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 12 | DWDWW |
| 7 |  Cannes | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 12 | DDDWW |
| 8 |  Thionville Lusitanos | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 12 | LDLDD |
| 9 |  Gobelins | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 12 | WDLDD |
| 10 |  Le Puy Foot | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 10 | LWLDL |
| 11 |  Quevilly | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 10 | DDWDW |
| 12 |  Bastia | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 10 | LDWLW |
| 13 | Fleury 91 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 9 | LDWWL |
| 14 |  Valenciennes | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 | WLLDD |
| 15 |  Orleans | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 8 | DLLDL |
| 16 |  Aubagne | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 7 | WLLDW |
| 17 |  Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 | DDLLL |
| 18 |  Villefranche | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 4 | LLDLL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Fleury 91 | Draw | Caen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 3.24 | 2.56 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.49 | 3.46 | 2.66 |
| SBO | 2.28 | 3.10 | 2.44 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
Snapshot from 1 Oct 2026, 17:27 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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