Likeliest match result
Baglan Dragons to win44.1% market implied
Stored odds 2.13 · 1xBet
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 10THE MATCH CENTREllanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons match centre
Pre-match
19:30
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Bookmaker marketOur view of the game
Our model is Unavailable. This alternative view comes from margin-adjusted bookmaker prices.
No qualifying value at this price
Either team to win (no draw)
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Market-implied chance74.7%
Best stored price1.25Betfair
A market-based lean does not establish a profitable edge.
Break-even at this price: 80.0%.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals55.1% market implied
Stored odds 1.73 · 1xBet
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes58.4% market implied
Stored odds 1.60 · William Hill
Double chance
Either team to win (no draw)74.7% market implied
Stored odds 1.25 · Betfair
Projected team goals and scorelines are unavailable until a current, consistent Kickoff Edge goal model passes review. The goals market above is a separate bookmaker view.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:48 UK · Within the price-age checks. Match-winner reference: 7 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
llanelli AFC 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Baglan Dragons 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
See the match forecast for model details.API-Football
Provider model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
Awaiting provider forecastProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
llanelli AFC
0/10Wins
0.6Goals / game
3.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 8 losses in that sample. At home, 0 wins from 9 available matches.
Inspect llanelli AFC’s resultsBaglan Dragons
4/10Wins
1.0Goals / game
1.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Baglan Dragons’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
llanelli AFC
10 matchesResults0 wins · 2 draws · 8 losses
Goals scored per game0.6
Goals conceded per game3.3
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Llantwit MajorAway · FAW Championship0–2Caerau (Ely)Away · FAW Championship0–3Treowen StarsHome · FAW Championship0–2Aberystwyth TownAway · FAW Championship0–4Carmarthen TownHome · FAW Championship2–2Cardiff DraconiansAway · FAW Championship2–4Swansea UniversityAway · FAW Championship0–3Trethomas BluebirdsHome · FAW Championship1–1Newport CityHome · FAW Championship1–4Haverfordwest County AFCAway · Friendlies Clubs0–8
Baglan Dragons
10 matchesResults4 wins · 2 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game1.0
Goals conceded per game1.1
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Carmarthen TownHome · FAW Championship1–2Cardiff DraconiansAway · FAW Championship1–2Afan LidoHome · FAW Championship2–1Caerphilly AthleticHome · FAW Championship0–1Caerau (Ely)Home · FAW Championship3–1Newport CityAway · FAW Championship1–0Llantwit MajorAway · FAW Championship1–0Swansea UniversityHome · FAW Championship0–3Trethomas BluebirdsAway · FAW Championship0–0Trethomas BluebirdsHome · FAW Championship1–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare llanelli AFC at home with Baglan Dragons away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:58 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
FAW Championship · 2026/27 · all league matches
llanelli AFCBaglan Dragons
—Matches played—
—Points earned—
—Wins—
—Goals scored / match—
—Goals conceded / match—
—Clean sheets—
—Failed to score—
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares llanelli AFC at home with Baglan Dragons away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
llanelli AFC
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Baglan Dragons
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗FAW Championship table
Current standings · South. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea University | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 16 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Aberystwyth Town | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 15 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Treowen Stars | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 13 | DWLWW |
| 4 |  Pontypridd Town | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 13 | LDWWW |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 | LWLWW |
| 6 |  Carmarthen Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 11 | DLDLW |
| 7 |  Caerau (Ely) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 10 | WWLLW |
| 8 |  Afan Lido | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 9 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 9 | DWWLL |
| 10 |  Ynyshir Albions | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | DDWLD |
| 11 |  Caerphilly Athletic | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 | LDWWL |
| 12 |  Cardiff Draconians | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 | WWLDL |
| 13 |  Newport City | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 6 | LLWLW |
| 14 |  Pontardawe Town | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 3 | LLLLL |
| 15 | llanelli AFC | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 2 | LLLDL |
| 16 |  Llantwit Major | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 1 | DLLLL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | llanelli AFC | Draw | Baglan Dragons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 2.92 | 3.42 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 2.90 | 3.62 | 2.07 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
Snapshot from 2 Oct 2026, 01:48 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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