Likeliest match result
Welling United to win59.7% model estimate
Price not supplied
Non League Premier - IsthmianMatchweek 11THE MATCH CENTREMaldon & Tiptree vs Welling United match centre
Pre-match
19:45
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Kickoff Edge modelOur view of the game
A likely outcome and a good betting price are separate decisions.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Welling United to win
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Model chance59.7%
Best stored price—Awaiting odds
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. Value-filter price: 1.92 or better. No current price qualifies for a recommendation under this filter.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals72.7% model estimate
Price not supplied
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes68.1% model estimate
Price not supplied
Double chance
Either team to win (no draw)81.0% model estimate
Price not supplied
Projected goals
3.78 total · Maldon & Tiptree 1.39 · Welling United 2.39
Expected averages from the stored goal model, not a promised score.Most likely scorelines
1–2 9.1%1–1 7.6%1–3 7.2%
Home–away · individual scores remain uncertain.This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Available · Calculated 2 Oct 03:34 UK.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Maldon & Tiptree 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Welling United 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
Home21.3%
Draw19.0%
Away59.7%
API-Football
Provider model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
Awaiting provider forecastProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Team-strength v3 fallback leans towards Welling United (59.7%). The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Maldon & Tiptree
3/10Wins
1.4Goals / game
2.8Conceded / game
Keep in view: 7 losses in that sample. At home, 5 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Maldon & Tiptree’s resultsWelling United
6/10Wins
2.1Goals / game
1.4Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At away venues, 2 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Welling United’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Maldon & Tiptree
10 matchesResults3 wins · 0 draws · 7 losses
Goals scored per game1.4
Goals conceded per game2.8
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Cray WanderersHome · Non League Premier - Isthmian1–5Egham TownHome · FA Trophy0–2Brentwood TownAway · Non League Premier - Isthmian1–5Carshalton AthleticHome · Non League Premier - Isthmian2–3RamsgateAway · Non League Premier - Isthmian0–2WhitehawkHome · Non League Premier - Isthmian3–2Cambridge CityAway · FA Cup1–6LeatherheadAway · Non League Premier - Isthmian4–1DartfordHome · Non League Premier - Isthmian1–2AveleyHome · Non League Premier - Isthmian1–0
Welling United
10 matchesResults6 wins · 1 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game2.1
Goals conceded per game1.4
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Chertsey TownHome · FA Trophy2–3Dulwich HamletAway · FA Cup1–4CheshuntHome · Non League Premier - Isthmian2–0Wingate & FinchleyHome · Non League Premier - Isthmian4–1Faversham TownHome · FA Cup2–1Faversham TownAway · FA Cup1–1Cray WanderersAway · Non League Premier - Isthmian1–4RamsgateHome · Non League Premier - Isthmian1–0DartfordAway · Non League Premier - Isthmian3–0Stanway RoversHome · Non League Premier - Isthmian4–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Maldon & Tiptree at home with Welling United away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 03:58 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Non League Premier - Isthmian · 2026/27 · all league matches
Maldon & TiptreeWelling United
—Matches played—
—Points earned—
—Wins—
—Goals scored / match—
—Goals conceded / match—
—Clean sheets—
—Failed to score—
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Maldon & Tiptree at home with Welling United away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Maldon & Tiptree
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Welling United
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Non League Premier - Isthmian table
Current standings · Regular Season. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dartford | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Enfield Town | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 18 | LWWWW |
| 3 | Welling United | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 18 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Carshalton Athletic | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 18 | WLLLW |
| 5 |  Dulwich Hamlet | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 16 | WWWDL |
| 6 |  Lewes | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 16 | LWLWW |
| 7 |  Leatherhead | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 15 | DDWLW |
| 8 |  St Albans City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 14 | DWDWL |
| 9 |  Ramsgate | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 13 | WDWLW |
| 10 |  Eastbourne Borough | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 | WWLLL |
| 11 |  Cray Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 12 |  Chatham Town | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 12 | LWLLW |
| 13 |  Wingate & Finchley | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 11 | WLLWW |
| 14 |  Burgess Hill Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | DDWDD |
| 15 |  Aveley | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 10 | LLLWL |
| 16 |  Brentwood Town | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 9 | WWLLL |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 9 | LLLLW |
| 18 |  Cheshunt | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 | WLLDD |
| 19 |  Whyteleafe | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 6 | LDWLD |
| 20 |  Whitehawk | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 5 | LWLDL |
| 21 |  Three Bridges | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 5 | DLLWD |
| 22 |  Stanway Rovers | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 | WLLLL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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