Puebla Calzada
4/10Wins
1.5Goals / game
1.5Conceded / game
Keep in view: 5 losses in that sample. At home, 5 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Puebla Calzada’s results
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Group 14 - 6THE MATCH CENTREPuebla Calzada vs Moralo match centre
Pre-match
17:00
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
A likely outcome and a good betting price are separate decisions.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Puebla Calzada 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Moralo 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
See the match forecast for model details.API-Football
Provider model estimate
Provider forecast under review
Provider percentages are missing or invalid.
Provider team identities do not match this fixture.
Provider forecast is missing a current timestamp or is more than two hours old.
Provider competition sample for the home team is fewer than five matches or unavailable.
Provider competition sample for the away team is fewer than five matches or unavailable.
Awaiting provider forecastProvider percentages and advice are withheld when team identities, freshness, competition samples or large bookmaker disagreements fail our quality checks. Accepted percentages are shown as supplied; they are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
FROM OUR STORED RESULTS
Experimental researchKickoff Edge history fallback
The provider forecast failed our quality checks and a verified primary forecast is unavailable. This separate estimate uses Puebla Calzada’s 20 and Moralo’s 20 prior completed games across competitions.
Puebla Calzada29.2%
Draw26.1%
Moralo44.8%
Up to 20 stored results per team in the previous year; 180-day decay; five-match prior at 1.35 goals; joint Poisson score model. No opponent-strength, lineup or xG adjustment; not calibrated or eligible for tips. The bookmaker comparison is a quality check; odds do not enter this model. Inspect the recorded results.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Moralo
5/10Wins
1.2Goals / game
0.7Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At away venues, 7 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Moralo’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Puebla Calzada
10 matchesResults4 wins · 1 draws · 5 losses
Goals scored per game1.5
Goals conceded per game1.5
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
QuintanaHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 141–2PlasenciaAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 143–0CastueraHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 142–0JerezAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 142–2Cabeza BueyAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 140–1LlerenenseHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 144–1BadajozAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 140–5Atlético PueblonuevoHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 143–1MontijoAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 140–1MoraloHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 140–2
Moralo
10 matchesResults5 wins · 4 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game1.2
Goals conceded per game0.7
Games with 3+ goals2 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Santa AmaliaAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 141–1CD ZafraHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 142–0JaraízAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 143–2VillanovenseHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 142–1BadajozAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 140–0BadajozHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 140–2AzuagaHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 140–0AzuagaAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 141–0Don BenitoHome · Tercera División RFEF - Group 141–1Santa AmaliaAway · Tercera División RFEF - Group 142–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Puebla Calzada at home with Moralo away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 10:34 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · 2026/27 · all league matches
Puebla CalzadaMoralo
—Matches played—
—Points earned—
—Wins—
—Goals scored / match—
—Goals conceded / match—
—Clean sheets—
—Failed to score—
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Puebla Calzada at home with Moralo away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Puebla Calzada
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Moralo
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table
Current standings · Group 14. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Azuaga | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Moralo | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Llerenense | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Puebla Calzada | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | WWD |
| 5 |  Castuera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | WLW |
| 6 |  CD Zafra | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | LWW |
| 7 |  Santa Amalia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | DWD |
| 8 |  Jerez | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | LWD |
| 9 |  Gévora | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 | DWL |
| 10 |  Cabeza Buey | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | LLW |
| 11 |  Villanovense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 12 |  Montijo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | WLL |
| 13 |  Villafranca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | LWL |
| 14 |  Atlético Pueblonuevo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 | DLD |
| 15 |  Jaraíz | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 | LLD |
| 16 |  Quintana | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 | DLL |
| 17 |  Plasencia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 | LLD |
| 18 |  Guadiana | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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