Likeliest match result
Cambridge City to win48.6% model estimate
Stored odds 3.74 · 1xBet
FA Cup3rd Round QualifyingTHE MATCH CENTRECambridge City vs Alvechurch match centre
Pre-match
15:00
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Kickoff Edge modelOur view of the game
A likely outcome and a good betting price are separate decisions.
Qualifying value candidate
Cambridge City or draw
This is the highest-probability selection among the prices that pass our conservative value filter.
Model chance70.5%
Best stored price1.93Betano
Value-filter price: 1.61 or better. The stored price passes; confirm it is still available.
Break-even at this price: 51.8%. Estimated model return: +36.0% per unit staked, before model error.
Track this single in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals66.9% model estimate
Stored odds 1.55 · 1xBet
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes66.5% model estimate
Stored odds 1.48 · Marathonbet
Double chance
Either team to win (no draw)78.1% model estimate
Stored odds 1.24 · Betano
Projected goals
3.45 total · Cambridge City 1.96 · Alvechurch 1.49
Expected averages from the stored goal model, not a promised score.Most likely scorelines
1–1 9.3%2–1 9.1%1–2 6.9%
Home–away · individual scores remain uncertain.View this saved decision and its original price →
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Available · Calculated 2 Oct 03:30 UK.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK · Within the price-age checks. Match-winner reference: 5 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Cambridge City 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Alvechurch 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Fetched 1 Oct, 23:54 UK. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
Home48.6%
Draw21.9%
Away29.5%
API-Football
Provider model estimate
Home10.0%
Draw45.0%
Away45.0%
Combo Double chance : draw or Alvechurch and +1.5 goals
Fetched 2 Oct, 02:58 UKProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Team-strength v3 fallback leans towards Cambridge City (48.6%). The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Cambridge City
4/10Wins
2.3Goals / game
1.5Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Cambridge City’s resultsAlvechurch
7/10Wins
2.0Goals / game
0.5Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At away venues, 4 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Alvechurch’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Cambridge City
10 matchesResults4 wins · 3 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game2.3
Goals conceded per game1.5
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Buckhurst HillHome · FA Cup3–1Canvey IslandAway · FA Trophy2–3Maldon & TiptreeHome · FA Cup6–1RedbridgeHome · FA Trophy1–1Cambridge UnitedHome · Friendlies Clubs1–3Brantham AthleticAway · Non League Div One - Isthmian North6–1Downham TownHome · Non League Div One - Isthmian North2–2RedbridgeHome · Non League Div One - Isthmian North0–2TakeleyAway · Non League Div One - Isthmian North2–1Mildenhall TownHome · Non League Div One - Isthmian North0–0
Alvechurch
10 matchesResults7 wins · 2 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game2.0
Goals conceded per game0.5
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored3 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
StourbridgeHome · Non League Premier - Southern Central0–0Bourne TownHome · FA Trophy1–2Anstey NomadsAway · Non League Premier - Southern Central2–2Racing Club WarwickHome · FA Cup3–1StamfordHome · Non League Premier - Southern Central4–0Wolverhampton CityHome · FA Cup2–0Rushall OlympicAway · Non League Premier - Southern Central1–0Racing Club WarwickHome · Non League Premier - Southern Central2–0Bishop's StortfordAway · Non League Premier - Southern Central3–0Needham MarketHome · Non League Premier - Southern Central2–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Cambridge City at home with Alvechurch away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 03:41 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
FA Cup · 2026/27 · all league matches
Cambridge CityAlvechurch
2Matches played2
6Points earned6
2Wins2
4.5Goals scored / match2.5
1.0Goals conceded / match0.5
0Clean sheets1
0Failed to score0
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Cambridge City at home with Alvechurch away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Cambridge City
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Alvechurch
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗FA Cup table
Current standings. Both teams are highlighted.
Standings are not available for this competition and season.
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Cambridge City | Draw | Alvechurch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 3.66 | 3.78 | 1.72 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.75 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| 1xBet | 3.74 | 4.30 | 1.82 |
| Betano | 3.70 | 3.65 | 1.83 |
Snapshot from 2 Oct 2026, 01:15 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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