Likeliest match result
Harborough Town to win51.4% model estimate
Stored odds 2.05 · Betano
FA Cup3rd Round QualifyingTHE MATCH CENTREHarborough Town vs St Albans City match centre
Pre-match
15:00
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Kickoff Edge modelOur view of the game
A likely outcome and a good betting price are separate decisions.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Harborough Town or draw
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Model chance78.1%
Best stored price1.33Betfair
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. Value-filter price: 1.44 or better. No current price qualifies for a recommendation under this filter.
Break-even at this price: 75.2%. Estimated model return: +3.8% per unit staked, before model error.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Under 2.5 goals59.3% model estimate
Stored odds 2.55 · BetVictor
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No56.0% model estimate
Stored odds 2.70 · BetVictor
Double chance
Harborough Town or draw78.1% model estimate
Stored odds 1.33 · Betfair
Projected goals
2.31 total · Harborough Town 1.46 · St Albans City 0.85
Expected averages from the stored goal model, not a promised score.Most likely scorelines
1–0 14.5%1–1 12.3%2–0 10.6%
Home–away · individual scores remain uncertain.View this saved decision and its original price →
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Available · Calculated 2 Oct 01:56 UK.
Odds updated 1 Oct 13:30 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 6 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Harborough Town 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
St Albans City 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Fetched 1 Oct, 23:56 UK. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
Home51.4%
Draw26.6%
Away21.9%
API-Football
Provider model estimate
Home0.0%
Draw50.0%
Away50.0%
Double chance : draw or St Albans City
Fetched 2 Oct, 02:00 UKProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Kickoff Edge · division adjusted (National League - North vs Non League Premier - Isthmian) leans towards Harborough Town (51.4%). The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Harborough Town
4/10Wins
1.0Goals / game
1.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At home, 5 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Harborough Town’s resultsSt Albans City
5/10Wins
2.1Goals / game
1.2Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 4 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect St Albans City’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Harborough Town
10 matchesResults4 wins · 2 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game1.0
Goals conceded per game1.1
Games with 3+ goals4 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
MacclesfieldAway · National League - North0–1Rushall OlympicHome · FA Cup1–0AFC Telford UnitedHome · National League - North0–0HerefordHome · National League - North0–3Brackley TownAway · National League - North0–1MarineHome · National League - North2–1Hednesford TownAway · National League - North1–2Darlington 1883Home · National League - North4–2Oxford CityAway · National League - North1–1MorecambeHome · National League - North1–0
St Albans City
10 matchesResults5 wins · 3 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game2.1
Goals conceded per game1.2
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Bury TownHome · FA Trophy4–1Witham TownAway · FA Cup3–0Cray WanderersAway · Non League Premier - Isthmian3–3Three BridgesHome · Non League Premier - Isthmian4–0Hashtag UnitedAway · FA Cup2–0Hashtag UnitedHome · FA Cup0–0CheshuntAway · Non League Premier - Isthmian1–1Stanway RoversHome · Non League Premier - Isthmian4–1RamsgateAway · Non League Premier - Isthmian0–4LewesHome · Non League Premier - Isthmian0–2
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Harborough Town at home with St Albans City away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:05 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
FA Cup · 2026/27 · all league matches
Harborough TownSt Albans City
1Matches played3
3Points earned7
1Wins2
1.0Goals scored / match1.7
0.0Goals conceded / match0.0
1Clean sheets3
0Failed to score1
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Harborough Town at home with St Albans City away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Harborough Town
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
St Albans City
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗FA Cup table
Current standings. Both teams are highlighted.
Standings are not available for this competition and season.
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Harborough Town | Draw | St Albans City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 3.68 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| 1xBet | 2.04 | 4.18 | 3.12 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
Snapshot from 1 Oct 2026, 13:30 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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