FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 79.4% model estimate · odds 1.25
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Chesham United to win (48.3%).
Stored at Betano. Break-even: 80.0%. Policy price: 1.42 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Ebbsfleet United to win 61.3% model estimate · odds 1.32
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Ebbsfleet United to win (61.3%).
Stored at Betano. Break-even: 75.8%. Policy price: 1.87 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Both teams to score — Yes 60.5% model estimate · odds 1.55
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Guiseley AFC to win (46.0%).
Stored at BetVictor. Break-even: 64.5%. Policy price: 1.90 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Dover or draw 77.2% model estimate · odds 1.40
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Dover to win (55.5%).
Stored at Betfair. Break-even: 71.4%. Policy price: 1.46 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Harborough Town or draw 78.1% model estimate · odds 1.33
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Harborough Town to win (51.4%).
Stored at Betfair. Break-even: 75.2%. Policy price: 1.44 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 74.3% model estimate · odds 1.25
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Kettering Town to win (43.1%).
Stored at Betfair. Break-even: 80.0%. Policy price: 1.52 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 76.7% model estimate · odds 1.25
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Hanworth Villa to win (43.2%).
Stored at Betfair. Break-even: 80.0%. Policy price: 1.47 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Over 2.5 goals 57.9% market-implied chance · odds 1.65
Likelihood from stored odds · value not established
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Leiston to win (54.4%).
Stored at 1xBet. Break-even: 60.6%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Scarborough Athletic or draw 62.0% model estimate · odds 2.20
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Macclesfield to win (38.0%).
Stored at Betfair. Break-even: 45.5%. Policy price: 1.85 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 78.7% model estimate · odds 1.25
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Marine to win (54.7%).
Stored at Betfair. Break-even: 80.0%. Policy price: 1.43 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 76.8% model estimate · odds 1.29
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Morecambe to win (43.2%).
Stored at Betfair. Break-even: 77.5%. Policy price: 1.47 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 74.7% market-implied chance · odds 1.25
Likelihood from stored odds · value not established
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Gloucester City to win (45.4%).
Stored at Betfair. Break-even: 80.0%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Oxford City to win 58.0% model estimate · odds 1.59
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Oxford City to win (58.0%).
Stored at 1xBet. Break-even: 62.9%. Policy price: 1.99 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 76.6% model estimate · odds 1.27
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Horsham to win (52.8%).
Stored at Betano. Break-even: 78.7%. Policy price: 1.47 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 77.8% model estimate · odds 1.29
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Redditch United to win (50.8%).
Stored at Betfair. Break-even: 77.5%. Policy price: 1.45 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Over 2.5 goals 68.0% model estimate · odds 1.56
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Salisbury to win (63.0%).
Stored at 1xBet. Break-even: 64.1%. Policy price: 1.67 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Sheppey United to win 45.9% model estimate
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Sheppey United to win (45.9%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 77.1% model estimate · odds 1.30
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Spennymoor Town to win (50.5%).
Stored at Betano. Break-even: 76.9%. Policy price: 1.46 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Stafford Rangers to win 41.7% model estimate
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Stafford Rangers to win (41.7%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
Awaiting usable data
There is not enough usable data for a selection yet. Team news and recent form remain available.
Open match research for form and team context
Evidence & price check Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Over 2.5 goals 69.1% model estimate · odds 1.64
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Torquay to win (44.8%).
Stored at 1xBet. Break-even: 61.0%. Policy price: 1.64 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Trafford to win 43.7% model estimate
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Trafford to win (43.7%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Over 2.5 goals 66.6% market-implied chance · odds 1.43
Likelihood from stored odds · value not established
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Weymouth to win (57.3%).
Stored at 1xBet. Break-even: 69.9%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide AFC Rushden & Diamonds or draw 71.5% model estimate · odds 2.25
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: AFC Rushden & Diamonds to win (49.5%).
Stored at Betfair. Break-even: 44.4%. Policy price: 1.58 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Bedford Town to win 58.2% model estimate · odds 1.63
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Bedford Town to win (58.2%).
Stored at 1xBet. Break-even: 61.3%. Policy price: 1.98 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Under 2.5 goals 58.1% model estimate · odds 2.42
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Cray Wanderers to win (42.0%).
Stored at 1xBet. Break-even: 41.3%. Policy price: 1.98 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Crowborough Athletic to win 47.0% model estimate
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Crowborough Athletic to win (47.0%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Over 2.5 goals 62.8% model estimate · odds 1.45
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Dorking Wanderers to win (53.7%).
Stored at 1xBet. Break-even: 69.0%. Policy price: 1.82 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 76.7% model estimate · odds 1.25
Pre-match estimate · check the evidence below
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Gainsborough Trinity to win (43.8%).
Stored at Betfair. Break-even: 80.0%. Policy price: 1.47 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
FA Cup 15:00 UK
Awaiting usable data
There is not enough usable data for a selection yet. Team news and recent form remain available.
Open match research for form and team context
Evidence & price check Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
Coverage and recommendation policy 176 scheduled matches: 135 with usable models, 21 with market fallback, 20 awaiting usable data. 1 models held for disagreement review. Counts cover this date and competition; rows are paginated.
The current value policy compares match result, over/under 2.5, BTTS and double chance. It subtracts five percentage points from the model probability, requires a 5% estimated return after that buffer, and minimum odds of 1.25. Models must be within 24 hours; odds collected within 30 minutes and updated within three hours. These thresholds are a policy, not proof of calibration or profit. No guaranteed outcomes.