Bolton
3/10Wins
1.8Goals / game
1.5Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At home, 5 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Bolton’s results
League OneMatchweek 46THE MATCH CENTREBolton vs Luton match centre
90′ · Live
2:3
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
J. Osei-Tutu20′
I. Cissoko45+3′
J. Clark15′ (pen)
H. Odoffin62′
S. Morris90+4′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate0.1%Bolton
Draw4.8%at full time
Current result estimate95.1%Luton
Another goal8.2%before full time
Next goal: Bolton 5.0% · no further goal 91.8% · Luton 3.2%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.BoltonLuton
2.790Expected goals · API-Football3.590
12Shots on target5
24Total Shots11
57%Ball Possession43%
5Corner Kicks3
16Fouls16
4Yellow Cards3
—Red Cards—
2Goalkeeper Saves10
412Total passes310
345Passes accurate244
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
League One: Regular seasonProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lincoln | 46 | +48 | 103 | — |
| 2 |  Cardiff | 46 | +40 | 91 | — |
| 3 |  Luton | 47 | +13 | 77 | ↑ 4 |
| 4 |  Stockport County | 46 | +13 | 77 | ↓ 1 |
| 5 |  Bradford | 46 | +7 | 77 | ↓ 1 |
| 6 | Bolton | 47 | +17 | 75 | ↓ 1 |
| 7 |  Stevenage | 46 | +3 | 75 | ↓ 1 |
| 8 |  Plymouth | 46 | +12 | 73 | — |
| 9 |  Huddersfield | 46 | +10 | 67 | — |
| 10 |  Mansfield Town | 46 | +12 | 65 | — |
| 11 |  Wycombe | 46 | +11 | 63 | — |
| 12 |  Reading | 46 | +4 | 63 | — |
| 13 |  Blackpool | 46 | -11 | 60 | — |
| 14 |  Doncaster | 46 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 15 |  Barnsley | 46 | -5 | 59 | — |
| 16 |  Wigan | 46 | -9 | 56 | — |
| 17 |  Burton Albion | 46 | -10 | 54 | — |
| 18 |  Peterborough | 46 | -4 | 53 | — |
| 19 |  AFC Wimbledon | 46 | -21 | 53 | — |
| 20 |  Leyton Orient | 46 | -12 | 52 | — |
| 21 |  Exeter City | 46 | -9 | 49 | — |
| 22 |  Port Vale | 46 | -25 | 42 | — |
| 23 |  Rotherham | 46 | -30 | 41 | — |
| 24 |  Northampton | 46 | -35 | 35 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Bolton 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Luton 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Luton
8/10Wins
2.2Goals / game
1.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 0 losses in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 9 available matches.
Inspect Luton’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Bolton
10 matchesResults3 wins · 5 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.8
Goals conceded per game1.5
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Luton
10 matchesResults8 wins · 2 draws · 0 losses
Goals scored per game2.2
Goals conceded per game1.0
Games with 3+ goals8 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
BarnsleyHome · League One2–1RotherhamAway · League One2–0Mansfield TownAway · League One2–2NorthamptonHome · League One2–1Stockport CountyHome · EFL Trophy3–1AFC WimbledonAway · League One3–0PeterboroughHome · League One2–1Stockport CountyHome · League One1–1Exeter CityHome · League One3–2WycombeAway · League One2–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Bolton at home with Luton away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:16 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
League One · 2025/26 · all league matches
BoltonLuton
45Matches played45
75Points earned71
19Wins20
1.5Goals scored / match1.5
1.1Goals conceded / match1.2
11Clean sheets13
10Failed to score9
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Bolton at home with Luton away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Bolton
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Steven Schumacher
- 1
J. BonhamG - 14
J. Osei-TutuD - 18
E. ToalD - 3
C. Forino-JosephD - 25
M. ConwayD - 8
J. SheehanM - 27
R. RodriguesM - 19
A. Cozier-DuberryM - 9
J. KennyM - 20
I. CissokoM - 48
M. BurstowF
Substitutes (7)
23 · D. Harrington
4 · X. Simons
15 · R. Apter
29 · C. Christie
22 · K. Dempsey
45 · J. McAtee
11 · T. Gale
Luton
Confirmed formation4-1-4-1Jack Wilshere
- 24
J. KeeleyG - 25
I. JonesD - 16
H. OdoffinD - 5
M. AndersenD - 3
K. NaismithD - 8
L. WalshM - 27
J. RichardsM - 18
J. ClarkM - 54
K. PalmerM - 32
E. LawrenceM - 21
N. WellsF
Substitutes (7)
1 · J. Shea
23 · G. Saville
14 · S. Morris
17 · N. Lonwijk
6 · D. van den Berg
12 · A. Al Hamadi
30 · G. Kodua
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Bolton
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Bonham | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 37 | — |
| Jordi Osei-Tutu | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 5 |
| Eoin Toal | 90 | 6.0 | — | 0 | — | 61 | 2 |
| Chris Forino | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 50 | 4 |
| Max Conway | 86 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 35 | 3 |
| Josh Sheehan | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 60 | 1 |
| Rúben Rodrigues | 79 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 33 | 1 |
| Amario Cozier-Duberry | 90 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 4 | 34 | — |
| Johnny Kenny | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 |
| Ibrahim Cissoko | 73 | 7.2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | — |
| Mason Burstow | 86 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Thierry Gale | 17 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 2 | 5 | — |
| Kyle Dempsey | 11 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 8 | — |
| Cyrus Christie | 14 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | — | 1 |
| John McAtee | 14 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 3 | — |
| David Harrington | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Xavier Simons | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Apter | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Luton
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Keeley | 90 | 7.9 | — | 0 | — | 47 | — |
| Isaiah Jones | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 29 | 3 |
| Hakeem Odofin | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 44 | — |
| Mads Andersen | 81 | 7.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 32 | 1 |
| Kal Naismith | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 27 | 4 |
| Liam Walsh | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | 47 | 2 |
| Jake Richards | 61 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 9 | 3 |
| Jordan Clark | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 5 |
| Kasey Palmer | 81 | 5.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Emilio Lawrence | 73 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Nahki Wells | 90 | 6.0 | — | 0 | 3 | 8 | 4 |
| Shayden Morris | 29 | 6.6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Gideon Kodua | 17 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 6 | 2 |
| Davy van den Berg | 9 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 5 | — |
| Ali Al-Hamadi | 9 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 3 | — |
| James Shea | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nigel Lonwijk | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| George Saville | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Bolton | Draw | Luton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 4.00 | 2.38 |
Snapshot from 1 May 2026, 18:29 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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