Marseille
4/10Wins
1.6Goals / game
2.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At home, 3 wins from 5 available matches.
Inspect Marseille’s results
Ligue 1Matchweek 24THE MATCH CENTREMarseille vs Lyon match centre
90′ · Live
3:2
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
I. Paixao52′
P. Aubameyang81′
P. Aubameyang90+1′
C. Tolisso3′
R. Himbert76′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate96.1%Marseille
Draw3.9%at full time
Current result estimate0.1%Lyon
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: Marseille 4.1% · no further goal 91.9% · Lyon 4.0%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.MarseilleLyon
2.000Expected goals · API-Football1.200
7Shots on target6
18Total Shots12
53%Ball Possession47%
8Corner Kicks1
15Fouls8
2Yellow Cards2
—Red Cards—
4Goalkeeper Saves4
443Total passes417
368Passes accurate343
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Ligue 1 Provisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 34 | +45 | 76 | — |
| 2 |  Lens | 34 | +31 | 70 | — |
| 3 | Marseille | 35 | +19 | 62 | ↑ 2 |
| 4 |  Lille | 34 | +15 | 61 | ↓ 1 |
| 5 |  Lyon | 35 | +12 | 60 | ↓ 1 |
| 6 |  Rennes | 34 | +9 | 59 | — |
| 7 |  Monaco | 34 | +6 | 54 | — |
| 8 |  Strasbourg | 34 | +11 | 53 | — |
| 9 |  Lorient | 34 | -3 | 45 | — |
| 10 |  Toulouse | 33 | +1 | 44 | — |
| 11 |  Paris FC | 34 | -3 | 44 | — |
| 12 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 34 | -12 | 39 | — |
| 13 |  Angers | 34 | -19 | 36 | — |
| 14 |  Le Havre | 34 | -12 | 35 | — |
| 15 |  Auxerre | 34 | -10 | 34 | — |
| 16 |  Nice | 34 | -23 | 32 | — |
| 17 |  Nantes | 33 | -23 | 23 | — |
| 18 |  Metz | 34 | -44 | 17 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Marseille 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Lyon 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Lyon
8/10Wins
2.0Goals / game
1.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 5 available matches.
Inspect Lyon’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Marseille
10 matchesResults4 wins · 2 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game1.6
Goals conceded per game2.0
Games with 3+ goals8 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Stade Brestois 29Away · Ligue 10–2StrasbourgHome · Ligue 12–2Paris Saint GermainAway · Ligue 10–5RennesHome · Coupe de France3–0Paris FCAway · Ligue 12–2Club Brugge KVAway · UEFA Champions League0–3LensHome · Ligue 13–1LiverpoolHome · UEFA Champions League0–3AngersAway · Ligue 15–2Paris Saint GermainHome · Ligue 11–0
Lyon
10 matchesResults8 wins · 0 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game2.0
Goals conceded per game1.1
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Marseille at home with Lyon away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 01:50 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Ligue 1 · 2025/26 · all league matches
MarseilleLyon
23Matches played23
40Points earned45
12Wins14
2.1Goals scored / match1.6
1.4Goals conceded / match1.0
6Clean sheets12
6Failed to score3
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Marseille at home with Lyon away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Marseille
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Habib Beye
- 1
G. RulliG - 22
T. WeahD - 5
L. BalerdiD - 21
N. AguerdD - 33
EmersonD - 19
G. KondogbiaM - 23
P. HojbjergM - 10
M. GreenwoodM - 27
Q. TimberM - 20
H. J. TraoreM - 17
P. AubameyangF
Substitutes (9)
12 · J. De Lange
8 · H. Abdelli
4 · C. Egan-Riley
11 · E. Nwaneri
18 · A. Vermeeren
6 · T. Nnadi
28 · B. Pavard
32 · F. Medina
14 · I. Paixao
Lyon
Confirmed formation4-3-1-2Paulo Fonseca
- 1
D. GreifG - 98
A. Maitland-NilesD - 22
C. MataD - 19
M. NiakhateD - 3
N. TagliaficoD - 6
T. TessmannM - 23
T. MortonM - 8
C. TolissoM - 99
N. NarteyM - 77
R. YaremchukF - 9
EndrickF
Substitutes (9)
40 · R. Descamps
18 · R. Ghezzal
33 · H. Hateboer
45 · R. Himbert
44 · K. Merah
16 · Abner Vinicius
7 · A. Karabec
39 · M. de Carvalho
85 · N. Kamara
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Marseille
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerónimo Rulli | 90 | 7.5 | — | 0 | — | 36 | — |
| Timothy Weah | 84 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 43 | 2 |
| Leonardo Balerdi | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 54 | 2 |
| Nayef Aguerd | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 47 | 2 |
| Emerson Palmieri | 90 | 6.0 | — | 0 | — | 50 | — |
| Geoffrey Kondogbia | 85 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 47 | 3 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | 52 | 4 |
| Mason Greenwood | 89 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 5 | 32 | — |
| Quinten Timber | 45 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 23 | 1 |
| Hamed Junior Traorè | 63 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 18 | 1 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 90 | 8.2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Igor Paixão | 45 | 8.7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Ethan Nwaneri | 27 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | 14 | 1 |
| Benjamin Pavard | 16 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| Himad Abdelli | 15 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 1 | 1 |
| Tochukwu Nnadi | 1 | — | — | 0 | — | 2 | — |
| Jeffrey de Lange | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Facundo Medina | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Vermeeren | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Lyon
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Greif | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 36 | — |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 39 | 5 |
| Clinton Mata | 90 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 46 | 1 |
| Moussa Niakhaté | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 58 | — |
| Nicolás Tagliafico | 88 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 33 | 1 |
| Tanner Tessmann | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 47 | 2 |
| Tyler Morton | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 50 | 3 |
| Corentin Tolisso | 90 | 8.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 51 | 3 |
| Noah Nartey | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 35 | 1 |
| Roman Yaremchuk | 60 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 15 | — |
| Endrick | 90 | 7.2 | — | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Rémi Himbert | 30 | 7.6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | — |
| Abner Vinícius | 12 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 3 | — |
| Rémy Descamps | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noham Kamara | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hans Hateboer | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Khalis Merah | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adam Karabec | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rachid Ghezzal | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mathys de Carvalho | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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