RB Leipzig
1/2Wins
2.0Goals / game
2.5Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At home, 0 wins from 1 available matches.
Inspect RB Leipzig’s results
BundesligaMatchweek 20THE MATCH CENTRERB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 match centre
Full time
1:2
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
C. Harder40′
N. Amiri45′ (pen)
Silas49′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
RB LeipzigFSV Mainz 05
1.390Expected goals · API-Football2.330
4Shots on target4
15Total Shots11
70%Ball Possession30%
5Corner Kicks4
4Fouls13
0Yellow Cards3
Red Cards
2Goalkeeper Saves3
697Total passes302
603Passes accurate207
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
RB Leipzig 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
FSV Mainz 05 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
FSV Mainz 05
2/3Wins
2.0Goals / game
1.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At away venues, 0 wins from 1 available matches.
Inspect FSV Mainz 05’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- At least one team has fewer than five usable recent results.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
RB Leipzig
2 matchesResults1 wins · 0 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game2.0
Goals conceded per game2.5
Games with 3+ goals2 of 2
Both teams scored1 of 2
Only a few results are available.
FSV Mainz 05
3 matchesResults2 wins · 0 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game2.0
Goals conceded per game1.3
Games with 3+ goals3 of 3
Both teams scored3 of 3
Only a few results are available.
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare RB Leipzig at home with FSV Mainz 05 away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 03:41 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Bundesliga · 2025/26 · all league matches
RB LeipzigFSV Mainz 05
19Matches played19
36Points earned15
11Wins3
1.9Goals scored / match1.1
1.3Goals conceded / match1.7
9Clean sheets1
2Failed to score8
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares RB Leipzig at home with FSV Mainz 05 away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
RB Leipzig
Confirmed formation4-4-1-1Ole Werner
- 1
P. GulacsiG - 17
R. BakuD - 4
W. OrbanD - 5
E. BitshiabuD - 22
D. RaumD - 49
Y. DiomandeM - 13
N. SeiwaldM - 24
X. SchlagerM - 7
A. NusaM - 40
Romulo CardosoF - 11
C. HarderF
Substitutes (9)
26 · M. Vandevoordt
6 · E. Banzuzi
9 · J. Bakayoko
16 · L. Klostermann
19 · K. Nedeljkovic
27 · T. Gomis
33 · A. Maksimovic
35 · M. Finkgrafe
39 · B. Henrichs
FSV Mainz 05
Confirmed formation3-5-2Urs Fischer
- 33
D. BatzG - 4
S. PoschD - 16
S. BellD - 48
K. PotulskiD - 21
D. da CostaM - 10
N. AmiriM - 6
K. SanoM - 7
Lee Jae-SungM - 30
S. WidmerM - 17
B. HollerbachF - 20
P. TietzF
Substitutes (9)
1 · L. Riess
2 · P. Mwene
8 · P. Nebel
9 · A. Nordin
15 · L. Maloney
26 · Silas
42 · D. Gleiber
14 · W. Boving
44 · N. Weiper
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
RB Leipzig
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Péter Gulácsi | 90 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 29 | — |
| Ridle Baku | 59 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 55 | 2 |
| Willi Orbán | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 88 | 1 |
| El Chadaille Bitshiabu | 59 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 65 | 2 |
| David Raum | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 104 | 2 |
| Yan Diomande | 90 | 7.9 | — | 0 | — | 60 | 1 |
| Nicolas Seiwald | 86 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 74 | 1 |
| Xaver Schlager | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 71 | 1 |
| Antonio Nusa | 90 | 8.0 | — | 1 | 1 | 40 | — |
| Rômulo | 72 | 6.0 | — | 0 | 2 | 34 | 1 |
| Conrad Harder | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | — |
| Benjamin Henrichs | 31 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 27 | 1 |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi | 31 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 26 | — |
| Tidiam Gomis | 18 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 7 | — |
| Johan Bakayoko | 10 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| Maarten Vandevoordt | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kosta Nedeljković | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Finkgräfe | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lukas Klostermann | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrija Maksimović | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
FSV Mainz 05
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Batz | 90 | 7.6 | — | 0 | — | 26 | — |
| Stefan Posch | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 29 | 3 |
| Stefan Bell | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 29 | 3 |
| Kacper Potulski | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 34 | — |
| Danny da Costa | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 18 | 6 |
| Nadiem Amiri | 72 | 7.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 29 | — |
| Kaishu Sano | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 42 | 5 |
| Jae-sung Lee | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 21 | 3 |
| Silvan Widmer | 82 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 16 | 4 |
| Benedict Hollerbach | 14 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Phillip Tietz | 82 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 3 | 25 | — |
| Silas | 68 | 8.2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 2 |
| Lennard Maloney | 18 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 6 | 1 |
| Phillipp Mwene | 8 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 2 | — |
| Paul Nebel | 8 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 1 | 1 |
| Nelson Weiper | 8 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| Lasse Riess | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| William Bøving | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Gleiber | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arnaud Nordin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
2025/26 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Bundesliga table
Current standings · Bundesliga . Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 122 | 36 | 86 | 89 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70 | 34 | 36 | 73 | WWLWL |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 66 | 47 | 19 | 65 | LWLWW |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 62 | DWDDL |
| 5 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 65 | 52 | 13 | 61 | LWDWW |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 59 | DLWWL |
| 7 |  SC Freiburg | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 51 | 57 | -6 | 47 | WLDLW |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 61 | 65 | -4 | 44 | DLLDL |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 61 | -16 | 43 | LWWDW |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 40 | WLWLD |
| 11 |  Union Berlin | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 58 | -14 | 39 | WWDLL |
| 12 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 38 | WLWDD |
| 13 |  Hamburger SV | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 38 | DWWLL |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 32 | LLDLD |
| 15 |  Werder Bremen | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 32 | LLLDW |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 29 | WLDDW |
| 17 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 41 | 72 | -31 | 26 | LWDWL |
| 18 |  FC St. Pauli | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 29 | 60 | -31 | 26 | LLLLD |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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