Likeliest match result
Guinea to win59.3% market implied
Stored odds 1.60 · Betano
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationGroup Stage - 2THE MATCH CENTREGuinea vs Kenya match centre
Full time
1:0
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
Serhou Guirassy32′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Bookmaker marketOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
Pre-match research only
Either team to win (no draw)
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Market-implied chance73.8%
Best stored price1.30William Hill
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. A market-based lean does not establish a profitable edge.
Break-even at this price: 76.9%.
Goals forecast
Under 2.5 goals62.8% market implied
Stored odds 1.50 · Bet365
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No63.9% market implied
Stored odds 1.50 · Betano
Double chance
Guinea or draw85.5% market implied
Stored odds 1.13 · Betano
Projected team goals and scorelines are unavailable until a current, consistent Kickoff Edge goal model passes review. The goals market above is a separate bookmaker view.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated 1 Oct 13:14 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 9 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
GuineaKenya
—Expected goals · API-Football—
3Shots on target2
9Total Shots5
52%Ball Possession48%
5Corner Kicks2
10Fouls17
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Goalkeeper Saves2
336Total passes311
281Passes accurate255
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Guinea 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Kenya 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Guinea
2/7Wins
1.4Goals / game
1.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At home, 1 wins from 4 available matches.
Inspect Guinea’s resultsKenya
2/8Wins
1.0Goals / game
1.9Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 4 available matches.
Inspect Kenya’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Guinea
7 matchesResults2 wins · 3 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.4
Goals conceded per game1.3
Games with 3+ goals4 of 7
Both teams scored5 of 7
Past results, not predictions.
Kenya
8 matchesResults2 wins · 3 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.0
Goals conceded per game1.9
Games with 3+ goals3 of 8
Both teams scored3 of 8
Past results, not predictions.
See results
EritreaHome · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification1–1LesothoHome · Friendlies4–0LesothoAway · Friendlies1–1EstoniaHome · FIFA Series1–1SenegalAway · Friendlies0–8Equatorial GuineaHome · Friendlies0–1Ivory CoastAway · World Cup - Qualification Africa0–3BurundiAway · World Cup - Qualification Africa1–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Guinea at home with Kenya away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 1 Oct, 23:34 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 2027/28 · all league matches
GuineaKenya
—Matches played—
—Points earned—
—Wins—
—Goals scored / match—
—Goals conceded / match—
—Clean sheets—
—Failed to score—
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Guinea at home with Kenya away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Guinea
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Paulo Duarte
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Kenya
Confirmed formationPendingBenni McCarthy
- 23B. OdhiamboG
- 16
R. OnyangoD - 4
M. KibwageD - 5
F. OdhiamboD - 20
M. OkwaroD - 12C. EramboM
- 8
Duke Ooga AbuyaM - 22
M. ObieroM - 7mohammed bajaberM
- 19
J. OchiengM - 24Ben Stanley OmondiF
Substitutes (12)
17 · V. Harper
2 · H. Wesonga
15 · R. Ogam
14 · A. Wanjala
11 · Shariff Sirengo
1 · Farouk Shikalo
10 · T. Ouma
21 · S. Wilson
13 · Javan Omondi Ochieng
3 · O. Khamis
18 · B. Bwire
6 · M. Omondi
2027/28 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification table
Current standings · Group D. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Africa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  Eritrea | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 | LD |
| 3 | Kenya | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 4 | Guinea | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | L |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Guinea | Draw | Kenya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 3.54 | 6.60 |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 3.50 | 6.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.53 | 3.61 | 6.83 |
| SBO | 1.51 | 3.23 | 5.70 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.25 | 6.50 |
Snapshot from 1 Oct 2026, 13:14 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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