Likeliest match result
PSV Eindhoven to win68.4% model estimate
Stored odds 1.24 · 1xBet
EredivisieMatchweek 8THE MATCH CENTREPSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen match centre
Pre-match
19:00
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Kickoff Edge modelOur view of the game
A likely outcome and a good betting price are separate decisions.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Both teams to score — Yes
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Model chance62.2%
Best stored price1.50Bet365
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. Value-filter price: 1.84 or better. No current price qualifies for a recommendation under this filter.
Break-even at this price: 66.7%. Estimated model return: -6.6% per unit staked, before model error.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals71.1% model estimate
Stored odds 1.21 · Betano
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes62.2% model estimate
Stored odds 1.50 · Bet365
Double chance
PSV Eindhoven or draw85.3% model estimate
Stored odds 1.07 · Bet365
Projected goals
3.68 total · PSV Eindhoven 2.56 · Heerenveen 1.12
Expected averages from the stored goal model, not a promised score.Most likely scorelines
2–1 9.3%2–0 8.2%3–1 7.9%
Home–away · individual scores remain uncertain.This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Available · Calculated 2 Oct 09:22 UK.
Odds updated 20 Sep 14:11 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 5 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
PSV Eindhoven 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Heerenveen 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
PSV Eindhoven68.4%
Draw16.9%
Heerenveen14.7%
API-Football
Provider model estimate
Provider forecast under review
Provider percentages are missing or invalid.
Provider team identities do not match this fixture.
Provider forecast is missing a current timestamp or is more than two hours old.
Provider competition sample for the home team is fewer than five matches or unavailable.
Provider competition sample for the away team is fewer than five matches or unavailable.
Awaiting provider forecastProvider percentages and advice are withheld when team identities, freshness, competition samples or large bookmaker disagreements fail our quality checks. Accepted percentages are shown as supplied; they are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Kickoff Edge · xG model leans towards PSV Eindhoven (68.4%). The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
PSV Eindhoven
6/10Wins
2.8Goals / game
1.5Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At home, 5 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect PSV Eindhoven’s resultsHeerenveen
4/10Wins
2.1Goals / game
1.7Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 5 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Heerenveen’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
PSV Eindhoven
10 matchesResults6 wins · 2 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game2.8
Goals conceded per game1.5
Games with 3+ goals9 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
TwenteAway · Eredivisie2–3Sparta RotterdamHome · Eredivisie4–1Shakhtar DonetskHome · UEFA Champions League1–1AjaxAway · Eredivisie3–1UtrechtAway · Eredivisie6–1GroningenHome · Eredivisie5–1ExcelsiorAway · Eredivisie2–1Fortuna SittardHome · Eredivisie2–2AZ AlkmaarHome · Super Cup0–4FC EindhovenHome · Friendlies Clubs3–0
Heerenveen
10 matchesResults4 wins · 4 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game2.1
Goals conceded per game1.7
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Sparta RotterdamAway · Eredivisie4–0TelstarHome · Eredivisie0–0AZ AlkmaarHome · Eredivisie2–3Willem IIAway · Eredivisie2–2PEC ZwolleHome · Eredivisie0–2AjaxAway · Eredivisie2–2TwenteHome · Eredivisie1–0Volos NFCHome · Friendlies Clubs3–2OH LeuvenHome · Friendlies Clubs4–4Club Brugge KVAway · Friendlies Clubs3–2
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare PSV Eindhoven at home with Heerenveen away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 10:13 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Eredivisie · 2026/27 · all league matches
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen
7Matches played7
16Points earned9
5Wins2
3.5Goals scored / match1.6
1.4Goals conceded / match1.3
0Clean sheets3
0Failed to score2
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares PSV Eindhoven at home with Heerenveen away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
PSV Eindhoven
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Heerenveen
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Eredivisie table
Current standings · Eredivisie. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 19 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 17 | WWWDW |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 16 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 5 |  Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 14 | DWWLW |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 | WLWWL |
| 7 |  Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 8 |  Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 11 | WDDLL |
| 9 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 10 | DDDLW |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 9 | WDLDL |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 | DLDLW |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 | LLDLD |
| 13 |  Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 | LDLDL |
| 14 |  Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 | DWDLL |
| 15 |  Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 | LWDLD |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 | LLDLW |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 2 | DLLDL |
| 18 |  Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 2 | LLDLD |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.22 | 6.45 | 9.90 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 6.50 | 9.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.24 | 6.98 | 10.70 |
| Betano | 1.24 | 7.00 | 9.75 |
Snapshot from 20 Sep 2026, 14:11 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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