Likeliest match result
Chesterfield to win54.5% model estimate
Stored odds 1.72 · Betano
League TwoMatchweek 9THE MATCH CENTREChesterfield vs Tranmere match centre
Pre-match
12:30
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Kickoff Edge modelOur view of the game
A likely outcome and a good betting price are separate decisions.
No qualifying value at this price
Either team to win (no draw)
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Model chance76.7%
Best stored price1.28Bet365
Value-filter price: 1.47 or better. No current price qualifies for a recommendation under this filter.
Break-even at this price: 78.1%. Estimated model return: -1.9% per unit staked, before model error.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals53.5% model estimate
Stored odds 1.70 · Bet365
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes53.8% model estimate
Stored odds 1.67 · Bet365
Double chance
Chesterfield or draw77.9% model estimate
Stored odds 1.22 · Betano
Projected goals
2.82 total · Chesterfield 1.77 · Tranmere 1.04
Expected averages from the stored goal model, not a promised score.Most likely scorelines
1–1 11.1%1–0 10.6%2–1 9.8%
Home–away · individual scores remain uncertain.View this saved decision and its original price →
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Available · Calculated 2 Oct 02:58 UK.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK · Within the price-age checks. Match-winner reference: 9 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Chesterfield 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Tranmere 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Fetched 2 Oct, 01:26 UK. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
Home54.5%
Draw23.3%
Away22.1%
API-Football
Provider model estimate
Home35.0%
Draw35.0%
Away30.0%
Double chance : Chesterfield or draw
Fetched 2 Oct, 03:30 UKProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Kickoff Edge · xG model leans towards Chesterfield (54.5%). The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Chesterfield
4/10Wins
1.7Goals / game
1.4Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 4 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Chesterfield’s resultsTranmere
3/10Wins
1.3Goals / game
1.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Tranmere’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Chesterfield
10 matchesResults4 wins · 3 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.7
Goals conceded per game1.4
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Tranmere
10 matchesResults3 wins · 6 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game1.3
Goals conceded per game1.0
Games with 3+ goals3 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Chesterfield at home with Tranmere away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 03:53 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
League Two · 2026/27 · all league matches
ChesterfieldTranmere
8Matches played8
11Points earned11
3Wins2
1.4Goals scored / match1.3
1.3Goals conceded / match1.0
2Clean sheets3
1Failed to score2
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Chesterfield at home with Tranmere away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
5 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Chesterfield
1wins5MEETINGS
Tranmere
2winsDec 2012 – Apr 2026 · Past results, not a forecast.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Chesterfield
Most-used league formation4-2-3-18 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Tranmere
Most-used league formation4-2-3-17 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗League Two table
Current standings · League Two. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 15 | WWDDD |
| 2 |  Cheltenham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 15 | WDWDW |
| 3 |  Bristol Rovers | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 15 | WLLWW |
| 4 |  York | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 14 | WLWDL |
| 5 |  Walsall | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | DWDDD |
| 6 |  Grimsby | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 13 | LWWDD |
| 7 |  Salford City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 13 | WWDWW |
| 8 |  Gillingham | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 12 | LWWWD |
| 9 |  Crewe | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 12 | DDDDD |
| 10 | Tranmere | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 11 | DDLWD |
| 11 | Chesterfield | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 11 | LWWDD |
| 12 |  Swindon Town | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 | DLLWW |
| 13 |  Rotherham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 | DWDLD |
| 14 |  Fleetwood Town | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 | LLDWD |
| 15 |  Colchester | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 | DDDLL |
| 16 |  Rochdale | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 | WWDLW |
| 17 |  Newport County | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 | WDDLL |
| 18 |  Shrewsbury | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 8 | DDWLL |
| 19 |  Accrington ST | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 7 | DDLWD |
| 20 |  Oldham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 | LLLLD |
| 21 |  Exeter City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 | LDLDD |
| 22 |  Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 | LLWDD |
| 23 |  Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 | LWLLD |
| 24 |  Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 | LLLDL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Chesterfield | Draw | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.65 | 3.96 | 4.40 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 4.13 | 4.39 |
| SBO | 1.58 | 3.45 | 4.06 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
Snapshot from 2 Oct 2026, 01:15 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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