Likeliest match result
Borussia Dortmund to win73.1% model estimate
Stored odds 1.40 · 1xBet
BundesligaMatchweek 5THE MATCH CENTREBorussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen match centre
Pre-match
19:30
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Kickoff Edge modelOur view of the game
A likely outcome and a good betting price are separate decisions.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Borussia Dortmund to win
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Model chance73.1%
Best stored price1.401xBet
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. Value-filter price: 1.55 or better. No current price qualifies for a recommendation under this filter.
Break-even at this price: 71.4%. Estimated model return: +2.4% per unit staked, before model error.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals62.3% model estimate
Stored odds 1.40 · Bet365
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes50.0% model estimate
Stored odds 1.62 · Bet365
Double chance
Borussia Dortmund or draw89.5% model estimate
Stored odds 1.12 · Betano
Projected goals
3.21 total · Borussia Dortmund 2.42 · Werder Bremen 0.80
Expected averages from the stored goal model, not a promised score.Most likely scorelines
2–0 11.7%1–0 9.7%3–0 9.5%
Home–away · individual scores remain uncertain.This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Available · Calculated 2 Oct 02:02 UK.
Odds updated 20 Sep 18:09 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 7 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Borussia Dortmund 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Werder Bremen 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
Home73.1%
Draw16.4%
Away10.5%
API-Football
Provider model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
Awaiting provider forecastProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Kickoff Edge · xG model leans towards Borussia Dortmund (73.1%). The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Borussia Dortmund
8/10Wins
2.4Goals / game
1.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At home, 7 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Borussia Dortmund’s resultsWerder Bremen
6/10Wins
2.1Goals / game
1.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 5 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Werder Bremen’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Borussia Dortmund
10 matchesResults8 wins · 1 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game2.4
Goals conceded per game1.0
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
VfB StuttgartAway · Bundesliga1–0SC Paderborn 07Home · Bundesliga3–0VillarrealHome · UEFA Champions League3–21899 HoffenheimAway · Bundesliga3–2HEBCAway · DFB Pokal5–0Hamburger SVHome · Bundesliga2–0Bayern MünchenHome · Super Cup1–2AS RomaHome · Friendlies Clubs2–2ArsenalAway · Emirates Cup3–2FC TokyoAway · Friendlies Clubs1–0
Werder Bremen
10 matchesResults6 wins · 2 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game2.1
Goals conceded per game1.3
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
FC AugsburgHome · Bundesliga3–21. FC KölnAway · Bundesliga1–1RB LeipzigHome · Bundesliga3–1SC FreiburgAway · Bundesliga1–4Lüneburger SK HansaAway · DFB Pokal3–0AuxerreHome · Friendlies Clubs0–1SC Paderborn 07Home · Friendlies Clubs2–2Energie CottbusAway · Friendlies Clubs4–2VfL BochumHome · Friendlies Clubs2–0Fagiano OkayamaHome · Friendlies Clubs2–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Borussia Dortmund at home with Werder Bremen away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 02:05 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Bundesliga · 2026/27 · all league matches
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
4Matches played4
12Points earned7
4Wins2
2.3Goals scored / match2.0
0.5Goals conceded / match2.0
3Clean sheets0
0Failed to score0
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Borussia Dortmund at home with Werder Bremen away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Borussia Dortmund
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Werder Bremen
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Bundesliga table
Current standings · Bundesliga. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 10 | WWDW |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10 | DWWW |
| 4 |  FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | LDWW |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | WDWL |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | WLWD |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 7 | DLWW |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 | WDWL |
| 9 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 6 | LWLW |
| 10 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 | DWLD |
| 11 |  FC Schalke 04 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 | DWDL |
| 12 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | WLLD |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 | LDLW |
| 14 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 | LWLL |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | LLWL |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | WLLL |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | LLLD |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 | LLLL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.36 | 5.60 | 7.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.37 | 5.46 | 7.04 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 4.84 | 5.80 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 5.25 | 7.00 |
Snapshot from 20 Sep 2026, 18:09 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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