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Sorted by the chosen market’s model estimate. Higher probability does not necessarily mean better value.

← Previous dayThursday, 3 September 2026Next day →

Probability or value? Probability describes how likely an outcome is. Value also considers its price. A high percentage alone does not make a good selection; estimates and odds can change.

About these probabilities and odds

Kickoff Edge combines recorded expected goals (xG) with opponent-adjusted team strengths. The xG model blends the recent xG signal and v3 equally, using up to ten previous matches per team, weighted toward recent performances. Both teams need at least five xG matches within six months. Where xG is unavailable, the labelled team-strength model remains in use, with recent-form fallback for limited competition history. Experimental recent-form fallbacks remain research only and are excluded from probability and value recommendation filters. Missing xG is never treated as zero. Competitive cup matches between verified domestic divisions also adjust team strength for the division gap, using earlier league appearances. The initial map covers 37 leagues in eight national pyramids; unknown or cross-country tiers are not guessed. All markets share one score distribution. These are pre-match estimates, not live forecasts or guaranteed outcomes. Historical testing showed lower overall error on the tested sample, but calibration and future performance remain under review. Odds show the highest stored price for each selection; bookmaker availability and prices can change. Additional xG and multi-source challengers are evaluated separately in the model observatory before public promotion. Bookmaker price movement is recorded from collection onwards; it does not reveal betting volume.

Over 2.5 goals

20 matching fixtures · 3 Sep
Italy · Coppa Italia Serie C
Cittadella4–1Renate
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Saudi-Arabia · Pro League
Al-Fayha2–2Al Kholood
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Poland · Ekstraklasa
Raków Częstochowa1–2Gornik Zabrze
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Italy · Coppa Italia
Palermo5–2Mantova
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Saudi-Arabia · Pro League
NEOM3–0Al Khaleej Saihat
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Sweden · Allsvenskan
Mjallby AIF0–2Djurgardens IF
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds 2.35
Draw—Odds 3.50
Away—Odds 2.70
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
1.80Bet365Snapshot 30 May, 20:39 · Older than 24 hours

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win—2.35Bet365
30 May, 20:39
Draw—3.50Bet365
30 May, 20:39
Away win—2.70Bet365
30 May, 20:39
Over 0.5 goals—1.04Bet365
30 May, 20:39
Under 0.5 goals—12.00Bet365
30 May, 20:39
Over 1.5 goals—1.25Bet365
30 May, 20:39
Under 1.5 goals—3.75Bet365
30 May, 20:39
Over 2.5 goals—1.80Bet365
30 May, 20:39
Under 2.5 goals—2.00Bet365
30 May, 20:39
Over 3.5 goals—3.00Bet365
30 May, 20:39
Under 3.5 goals—1.36Bet365
30 May, 20:39
Over 4.5 goals—6.00Bet365
30 May, 20:39
Under 4.5 goals—1.12Bet365
30 May, 20:39
Both teams to score — Yes—1.67Bet365
30 May, 20:39
Both teams to score — No—2.10Bet365
30 May, 20:39
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Denmark · Superliga
FC Copenhagen2–0FC Nordsjaelland
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Saudi-Arabia · Pro League
Al Diriyah0–2Al-Qadisiyah FC
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Italy · Coppa Italia Serie C
Novara0–0Livorno
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Switzerland · Super League
FC Basel 18931–2FC Sion
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Poland · Ekstraklasa
Lech Poznan2–1Jagiellonia
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Switzerland · Super League
FC Lugano1–0Servette FC
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Belgium · Jupiler Pro League
Gent1–0OH Leuven
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Belgium · Jupiler Pro League
Anderlecht1–0Kortrijk
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
France · Ligue 1
Toulouse0–1Lille
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Scotland · Premiership
Hibernian1–3Heart Of Midlothian
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
France · Ligue 3
Rouen1–1Valenciennes
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Spain · La Liga
Real Sociedad0–0Celta Vigo
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Italy · Coppa Italia
Cagliari1–2Hellas Verona
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →
Italy · Coppa Italia Serie C
Trento0–1Desenzano Calvina
Match Finished
Match research · stored prices and team context
Home—Odds —
Draw—Odds —
Away—Odds —
Selected market · estimated chanceOver 2.5 goals
—
No stored odds for this selection.

Use the stored odds to compare prices, then open the match for recent form, team news and context. A reliable statistical estimate is not available.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +
MarketEstimateStored odds
Home win——
Draw——
Away win——
Over 0.5 goals——
Under 0.5 goals——
Over 1.5 goals——
Under 1.5 goals——
Over 2.5 goals——
Under 2.5 goals——
Over 3.5 goals——
Under 3.5 goals——
Over 4.5 goals——
Under 4.5 goals——
Both teams to score — Yes——
Both teams to score — No——
Home or draw——
Away or draw——
Home or away——
Home team to concede——
Away team to concede——
Coverage varies by competitionMatch centre →
Research only · selections closedCapture history →Manual journal →