UPCOMING MATCHES · 90 MINUTES Match decisions Friday, 2 October · A likely outcome needs a good price too.
Today Next day → Advanced filters & finished matches Decision record No qualifying value candidates in this view. Use the match research below; a short price alone is not an edge.
UEFA Nations League 19:45 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide France to win 66.0% market-implied chance · odds 1.47
Bookmaker market · Our model: unavailable
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: France to win (66.0%).
Stored at Betano. Break-even: 68.0%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 1 Oct 21:18 UK. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
UEFA Nations League 19:45 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Over 2.5 goals 65.5% market-implied chance · odds 1.47
Bookmaker market · Our model: experimental — not eligible for recommendations
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Belgium to win (62.1%).
Stored at Betano. Break-even: 68.0%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 1 Oct 21:18 UK. Prices need checking.
Experimental fallback: data and predictive performance are not verified for recommendations.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
UEFA Nations League 19:45 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Hungary or draw 73.8% market-implied chance · odds 1.32
Bookmaker market · Our model: unavailable
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Hungary to win (45.4%).
Stored at Marathonbet. Break-even: 75.8%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 1 Oct 21:18 UK. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
UEFA Nations League 19:45 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 71.2% market-implied chance · odds 1.35
Bookmaker market · Our model: unavailable
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Ukraine to win (49.1%).
Stored at Marathonbet. Break-even: 74.1%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 1 Oct 21:18 UK. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
UEFA Nations League 19:45 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 77.2% market-implied chance · odds 1.25
Bookmaker market · Our model: unavailable
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Poland to win (61.1%).
Stored at William Hill. Break-even: 80.0%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 1 Oct 21:18 UK. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
UEFA Nations League 19:45 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 73.0% market-implied chance · odds 1.32
Bookmaker market · Our model: experimental — not eligible for recommendations
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Sweden to win (37.3%).
Stored at Marathonbet. Break-even: 75.8%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 1 Oct 21:18 UK. Prices need checking.
Experimental fallback: data and predictive performance are not verified for recommendations.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
UEFA Nations League 19:45 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 74.6% market-implied chance · odds 1.29
Bookmaker market · Our model: unavailable
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Slovakia to win (58.4%).
Stored at Marathonbet. Break-even: 77.5%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 1 Oct 21:18 UK. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
Eerste Divisie 20:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Heracles to win 61.6% model estimate · odds 1.38
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Heracles to win (61.6%).
Stored at Bet365. Break-even: 72.5%. Policy price: 1.86 or better.
Odds updated 1 Oct 21:28 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
CONCACAF Nations League 20:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 74.8% market-implied chance · odds 1.29
Bookmaker market · Our model: unavailable
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Guadeloupe to win (42.2%).
Stored at William Hill. Break-even: 77.5%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 1 Oct 22:17 UK. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 20:15 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Atlético Madrid II or draw 63.0% model estimate · odds 2.20
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Real Madrid II to win (37.0%).
Stored at Betfair. Break-even: 45.5%. Policy price: 1.82 or better.
Odds updated 1 Oct 21:37 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
CONCACAF Nations League 22:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 73.6% market-implied chance · odds 1.30
Bookmaker market · Our model: unavailable
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Cuba to win (51.9%).
Stored at Bet365. Break-even: 76.9%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 1 Oct 22:17 UK. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
CONCACAF Nations League 23:00 UK
No recommendation — prices need checking
Likelihood guide Either team to win (no draw) 72.2% market-implied chance · odds 1.33
Bookmaker market · Our model: unavailable
Evidence & price check Likeliest match result: Suriname to win (42.4%).
Stored at William Hill. Break-even: 75.2%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 1 Oct 22:17 UK. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
Coverage and recommendation policy 42 scheduled matches: 13 with usable models, 21 with market fallback, 8 awaiting usable data. 0 models held for disagreement review. Counts cover this date and competition; rows are paginated.
Policy value-buffer-v1 compares match result, over/under 2.5, BTTS and double chance. It subtracts five percentage points from the model probability, requires a 5% estimated return after that buffer, and minimum odds of 1.25. Models must be within 24 hours; odds collected within 30 minutes and updated within three hours. These thresholds are a policy, not proof of calibration or profit. No guaranteed outcomes.