Likeliest match result
Ukraine to win49.1% market implied
Stored odds 1.98 · Betano
UEFA Nations LeagueLeague B - 3THE MATCH CENTREUkraine vs Northern Ireland match centre
Pre-match
19:45
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Bookmaker marketOur view of the game
Our model is Unavailable. This alternative view comes from margin-adjusted bookmaker prices.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Either team to win (no draw)
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Market-implied chance71.2%
Best stored price1.35Marathonbet
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. A market-based lean does not establish a profitable edge.
Break-even at this price: 74.1%.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Under 2.5 goals60.4% market implied
Stored odds 1.62 · 1xBet
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No55.6% market implied
Stored odds 1.70 · William Hill
Double chance
Ukraine or draw77.9% market implied
Stored odds 1.24 · Betano
Projected team goals and scorelines are unavailable until a current, consistent Kickoff Edge goal model passes review. The goals market above is a separate bookmaker view.
View this saved decision and its original price →
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated 1 Oct 21:18 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 9 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Ukraine 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Northern Ireland 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Fetched 1 Oct, 21:15 UK. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
See the match forecast for model details.API-Football
Provider model estimate
Home10.0%
Draw45.0%
Away45.0%
Combo Double chance : draw or Northern Ireland and -2.5 goals
Fetched 2 Oct, 00:19 UKProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Ukraine
5/9Wins
1.6Goals / game
1.4Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 2 wins from 3 available matches.
Inspect Ukraine’s resultsNorthern Ireland
4/9Wins
0.7Goals / game
0.8Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 4 available matches.
Inspect Northern Ireland’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Ukraine
9 matchesResults5 wins · 1 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.6
Goals conceded per game1.4
Games with 3+ goals5 of 9
Both teams scored4 of 9
Past results, not predictions.
See results
GeorgiaAway · UEFA Nations League0–0HungaryAway · UEFA Nations League1–0DenmarkAway · Friendlies1–2PolandAway · Friendlies2–0SwedenHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe1–3IcelandHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe2–0FranceAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe0–4AzerbaijanHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe2–1IcelandAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe5–3
Northern Ireland
9 matchesResults4 wins · 1 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game0.7
Goals conceded per game0.8
Games with 3+ goals1 of 9
Both teams scored1 of 9
Past results, not predictions.
See results
HungaryHome · UEFA Nations League0–0GeorgiaAway · UEFA Nations League1–0FranceAway · Friendlies1–3GuineaHome · Friendlies1–0ItalyAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe0–2LuxembourgHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe1–0SlovakiaAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe0–1GermanyHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe0–1SlovakiaHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe2–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Ukraine at home with Northern Ireland away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 00:26 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
UEFA Nations League · 2026/27 · all league matches
UkraineNorthern Ireland
2Matches played2
4Points earned4
1Wins1
0.5Goals scored / match0.5
0.0Goals conceded / match0.0
2Clean sheets2
1Failed to score1
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Ukraine at home with Northern Ireland away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
2 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Ukraine
1wins2MEETINGS
Northern Ireland
1winsJun 2016 – Jun 2021 · Historical meetings. Squads and team strength have changed.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Ukraine
Most-used league formation4-3-31 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Northern Ireland
Most-used league formation3-4-2-12 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗UEFA Nations League table
Current standings · League B - Group B. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ukraine | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | DW |
| 2 | Northern Ireland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | DW |
| 3 |  Hungary | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 4 |  Georgia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | DL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Ukraine | Draw | Northern Ireland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 3.36 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.94 | 3.34 | 4.40 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 2.87 | 3.60 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Snapshot from 1 Oct 2026, 21:18 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
PUT YOUR VIEW TO THE TEST
Open practice slip +Try it with virtual funds
Start with £1,000 virtual funds. Choose a single or combine different matches in an accumulator, then track confirmed results. No real money. Record an actual bet in your manual journal ↗
Football data. A clearer perspective.Back to matches →