Likeliest match result
France to win66.0% market implied
Stored odds 1.47 · Betano
UEFA Nations LeagueLeague A - 3THE MATCH CENTREFrance vs Italy match centre
Pre-match
19:45
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Bookmaker marketOur view of the game
Our model is Unavailable. This alternative view comes from margin-adjusted bookmaker prices.
No recommendation — prices need checking
France to win
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Market-implied chance66.0%
Best stored price1.47Betano
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. A market-based lean does not establish a profitable edge.
Break-even at this price: 68.0%.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals65.2% market implied
Stored odds 1.47 · Betano
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes58.4% market implied
Stored odds 1.62 · Bet365
Double chance
France or draw85.1% market implied
Stored odds 1.15 · Betano
Projected team goals and scorelines are unavailable until a current, consistent Kickoff Edge goal model passes review. The goals market above is a separate bookmaker view.
View this saved decision and its original price →
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated 1 Oct 21:18 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 9 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
France 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Italy 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Fetched 1 Oct, 21:15 UK. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
See the match forecast for model details.API-Football
Provider model estimate
Home45.0%
Draw45.0%
Away10.0%
Double chance : France or draw
Fetched 2 Oct, 00:19 UKProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
France
8/10Wins
2.2Goals / game
1.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At home, 7 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect France’s resultsItaly
7/9Wins
1.9Goals / game
0.9Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At away venues, 5 wins from 5 available matches.
Inspect Italy’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
France
10 matchesResults8 wins · 0 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game2.2
Goals conceded per game1.0
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored3 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
Italy
9 matchesResults7 wins · 0 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.9
Goals conceded per game0.9
Games with 3+ goals4 of 9
Both teams scored3 of 9
Past results, not predictions.
See results
TürkiyeAway · UEFA Nations League4–1BelgiumHome · UEFA Nations League0–2GreeceAway · Friendlies1–0LuxembourgAway · Friendlies1–0Northern IrelandHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe2–0NorwayHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe1–4MoldovaAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe2–0IsraelHome · World Cup - Qualification Europe3–0EstoniaAway · World Cup - Qualification Europe3–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare France at home with Italy away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 00:26 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
UEFA Nations League · 2026/27 · all league matches
FranceItaly
2Matches played2
6Points earned3
2Wins1
1.0Goals scored / match2.0
0.0Goals conceded / match1.5
2Clean sheets0
0Failed to score1
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares France at home with Italy away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
4 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
France
2wins4MEETINGS
Italy
2winsJun 2008 – Nov 2024 · Past results, not a forecast.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
France
Most-used league formation4-3-32 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Italy
Most-used league formation4-3-32 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗UEFA Nations League table
Current standings · League A - Group A. Both teams are highlighted.
Belgium
TürkiyeTHE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | France | Draw | Italy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 5.20 | 6.90 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.45 | 5.16 | 6.37 |
| SBO | 1.37 | 4.47 | 5.80 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
Snapshot from 1 Oct 2026, 21:18 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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