Saturday, 3 October · A likely outcome needs a good price too.
4 value candidates pass the current policy.
Qualifying value candidate
63.9% model estimate · odds 1.81
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Colombia to win (51.4%).
Stored at 1xBet. Break-even: 55.2%. Policy price: 1.79 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 05:11 UK. Within price-age checks.
Qualifying value candidate
60.8% model estimate · odds 2.10
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Hércules to win (39.2%).
Stored at Betano. Break-even: 47.6%. Policy price: 1.89 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 05:44 UK. Within price-age checks.
Qualifying value candidate
76.4% model estimate · odds 1.70
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Vitesse to win (56.0%).
Stored at Betano. Break-even: 58.8%. Policy price: 1.48 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 05:33 UK. Within price-age checks.
Qualifying value candidate
64.2% model estimate · odds 1.85
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Den Bosch to win (64.2%).
Stored at Pinnacle. Break-even: 54.1%. Policy price: 1.78 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 05:33 UK. Within price-age checks.
No recommendation — prices need checking
76.0% market-implied chance · odds 1.25
Bookmaker market · Our model: unavailable
Likeliest match result: Barbados to win (49.6%).
Stored at William Hill. Break-even: 80.0%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 2 Oct 02:22 UK. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
No recommendation — prices need checking
74.5% market-implied chance · odds 1.30
Bookmaker market · Our model: unavailable
Likeliest match result: Grenada to win (54.1%).
Stored at William Hill. Break-even: 76.9%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 2 Oct 02:22 UK. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
No recommendation — prices need checking
72.9% market-implied chance · odds 1.30
Bookmaker market · Our model: unavailable
Likeliest match result: Honduras to win (51.6%).
Stored at William Hill. Break-even: 76.9%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 2 Oct 02:22 UK. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
No recommendation — prices need checking
72.3% market-implied chance · odds 1.31
Bookmaker market · Our model: experimental — not eligible for recommendations
Likeliest match result: Jamaica to win (43.7%).
Stored at Betano. Break-even: 76.3%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.
Odds updated 2 Oct 02:22 UK. Prices need checking.
Experimental fallback: data and predictive performance are not verified for recommendations.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.
Awaiting usable data
There is not enough usable data for a selection yet. Team news and recent form remain available.
No usable forecast · Our model: unavailable
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
Awaiting usable data
There is not enough usable data for a selection yet. Team news and recent form remain available.
No usable forecast · Our model: unavailable
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
Awaiting usable data
There is not enough usable data for a selection yet. Team news and recent form remain available.
No usable forecast · Our model: unavailable
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
Awaiting usable data
There is not enough usable data for a selection yet. Team news and recent form remain available.
No usable forecast · Our model: unavailable
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
A valid stored model is unavailable.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No recommendation — prices need checking
76.7% model estimate · odds 1.28
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Chesterfield to win (54.5%).
Stored at Bet365. Break-even: 78.1%. Policy price: 1.47 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 04:43 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
60.9% model estimate · odds 1.67
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Dagenham & Redbridge to win (60.9%).
Stored at Betano. Break-even: 59.9%. Policy price: 1.88 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:15 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
81.7% model estimate · odds 1.50
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Eibar to win (58.5%).
Stored at Betano. Break-even: 66.7%. Policy price: 1.37 or better.
Odds updated 2 Oct 04:56 UK. Prices need checking.
Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
50.2% model estimate
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Bayreuth to win (50.2%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
42.0% model estimate
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Eichstätt to win (42.0%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
41.3% model estimate
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Greuther Fürth II to win (41.3%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
65.0% model estimate
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: TSV 1860 München to win (65.0%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
60.1% model estimate
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Nürnberg II to win (60.1%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
43.7% model estimate
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Vilzing to win (43.7%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
73.1% model estimate
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: SV Drochtersen/Assel to win (73.1%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
52.0% model estimate
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Weiche Flensburg to win (52.0%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
39.8% model estimate
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: VfR Aalen to win (39.8%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
46.0% model estimate
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Eintracht Trier to win (46.0%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
52.8% model estimate
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: FC 08 Homburg to win (52.8%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
50.2% model estimate
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: SGV Freiberg to win (50.2%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
47.8% model estimate
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Hessen Kassel to win (47.8%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
56.2% model estimate
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: Freiburg II to win (56.2%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
No recommendation — prices need checking
52.4% model estimate
Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available
Likeliest match result: FC Gutersloh to win (52.4%).
Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.
No valid pre-match odds snapshot.
No selection meets the price and value policy.
176 scheduled matches: 135 with usable models, 21 with market fallback, 20 awaiting usable data. 1 models held for disagreement review. Counts cover this date and competition; rows are paginated.
Policy value-buffer-v1 compares match result, over/under 2.5, BTTS and double chance. It subtracts five percentage points from the model probability, requires a 5% estimated return after that buffer, and minimum odds of 1.25. Models must be within 24 hours; odds collected within 30 minutes and updated within three hours. These thresholds are a policy, not proof of calibration or profit. No guaranteed outcomes.