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UPCOMING MATCHES · 90 MINUTES

Match decisions

Sunday, 4 October · A likely outcome needs a good price too.

No qualifying value candidates in this view. Use the match research below; a short price alone is not an edge.

Copa del Rey

Prat v San Rafael

Awaiting usable data

There is not enough usable data for a selection yet. Team news and recent form remain available.

No usable forecast · Our model: unavailable

Evidence & price check

Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.

A valid stored model is unavailable.

No valid pre-match odds snapshot.

Copa del Rey

CD San Jose v Auriense

Awaiting usable data

There is not enough usable data for a selection yet. Team news and recent form remain available.

No usable forecast · Our model: unavailable

Evidence & price check

Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.

A valid stored model is unavailable.

No valid pre-match odds snapshot.

Segunda División

Sporting Gijon v Celta de Vigo II

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideUnder 2.5 goals

60.0% model estimate · odds 2.15

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Sporting Gijon to win (47.7%).

Stored at 1xBet. Break-even: 46.5%. Policy price: 1.91 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:42 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Ponferradina v Mirandes

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideEither team to win (no draw)

69.8% model estimate · odds 1.33

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Ponferradina to win (39.5%).

Stored at Betfair. Break-even: 75.2%. Policy price: 1.63 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Zamora v CD Coria

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideEither team to win (no draw)

75.1% model estimate · odds 1.25

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Zamora to win (46.1%).

Stored at William Hill. Break-even: 80.0%. Policy price: 1.50 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Serie C - Girone A

Dolomiti Bellunesi v Novara

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideDolomiti Bellunesi or draw

72.2% model estimate · odds 1.50

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Dolomiti Bellunesi to win (41.0%).

Stored at Betano. Break-even: 66.7%. Policy price: 1.57 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Serie C - Girone A

Juventus U23 v Lumezzane

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideEither team to win (no draw)

72.8% model estimate · odds 1.29

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Lumezzane to win (40.2%).

Stored at Betfair. Break-even: 77.5%. Policy price: 1.55 or better.

Odds updated 1 Oct 03:15 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Serie C - Girone B

Reggiana v Spezia

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideEither team to win (no draw)

74.1% model estimate · odds 1.32

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Spezia to win (43.5%).

Stored at Betano. Break-even: 75.8%. Policy price: 1.52 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Copa del Rey

Alcazar v Talayuela

Awaiting usable data

There is not enough usable data for a selection yet. Team news and recent form remain available.

No usable forecast · Our model: unavailable

Evidence & price check

Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.

A valid stored model is unavailable.

No valid pre-match odds snapshot.

UEFA Nations League

Kosovo v Austria

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideEither team to win (no draw)

75.7% market-implied chance · odds 1.30

Bookmaker market · Our model: experimental — not eligible for recommendations

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Austria to win (46.7%).

Stored at William Hill. Break-even: 76.9%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

Experimental fallback: data and predictive performance are not verified for recommendations.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.

UEFA Nations League

Malta v Andorra

Awaiting usable data

There is not enough usable data for a selection yet. Team news and recent form remain available.

No usable forecast · Our model: experimental — not eligible for recommendations

Evidence & price check

Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.

Experimental fallback: data and predictive performance are not verified for recommendations.

No valid pre-match odds snapshot.

Copa del Rey

Tavernes v Maracena

Awaiting usable data

There is not enough usable data for a selection yet. Team news and recent form remain available.

No usable forecast · Our model: unavailable

Evidence & price check

Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.

A valid stored model is unavailable.

No valid pre-match odds snapshot.

Segunda División

Castellón v AD Ceuta FC

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideCastellón to win

86.3% model estimate · odds 1.29

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Castellón to win (86.3%).

Stored at Betano. Break-even: 77.5%. Policy price: 1.30 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:42 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Segunda División

Las Palmas v Valladolid

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideLas Palmas or draw

76.2% model estimate · odds 1.33

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Las Palmas to win (49.7%).

Stored at 1xBet. Break-even: 75.2%. Policy price: 1.48 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:42 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Mérida AD v Cacereño

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideEither team to win (no draw)

73.5% model estimate · odds 1.30

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Cacereño to win (45.3%).

Stored at William Hill. Break-even: 76.9%. Policy price: 1.54 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Algeciras v Rayo Majadahonda

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideEither team to win (no draw)

73.2% model estimate · odds 1.30

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Algeciras to win (43.0%).

Stored at Betfair. Break-even: 76.9%. Policy price: 1.54 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:43 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Friendlies

Egypt v South Africa

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideEgypt to win

51.9% model estimate

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Egypt to win (51.9%).

Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.

No valid pre-match odds snapshot.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Serie C - Girone A

Alcione v Trento

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideTrento or draw

72.6% model estimate · odds 1.32

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Trento to win (44.6%).

Stored at Betano. Break-even: 75.8%. Policy price: 1.56 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Serie C - Girone B

Latina v Ostia Mare

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideEither team to win (no draw)

70.2% model estimate · odds 1.31

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Latina to win (35.4%).

Stored at Betano. Break-even: 76.3%. Policy price: 1.62 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Serie C - Girone C

Audace Cerignola v Team Altamura

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideEither team to win (no draw)

74.8% model estimate · odds 1.27

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Audace Cerignola to win (59.4%).

Stored at Betano. Break-even: 78.7%. Policy price: 1.51 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Serie C - Girone C

Potenza v AZ Picerno

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideEither team to win (no draw)

80.5% model estimate · odds 1.26

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Potenza to win (60.8%).

Stored at Betano. Break-even: 79.4%. Policy price: 1.40 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Serie C - Girone C

Salernitana v Bari

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideEither team to win (no draw)

69.5% model estimate · odds 1.34

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Salernitana to win (36.6%).

Stored at Betano. Break-even: 74.6%. Policy price: 1.63 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

UEFA Nations League

Greece v Germany

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideGermany or draw

74.8% market-implied chance · odds 1.29

Bookmaker market · Our model: experimental — not eligible for recommendations

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Germany to win (49.4%).

Stored at 1xBet. Break-even: 77.5%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

Experimental fallback: data and predictive performance are not verified for recommendations.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.

UEFA Nations League

Netherlands v Serbia

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideOver 2.5 goals

67.9% market-implied chance · odds 1.42

Bookmaker market · Our model: experimental — not eligible for recommendations

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Netherlands to win (79.6%).

Stored at Betano. Break-even: 70.4%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

Experimental fallback: data and predictive performance are not verified for recommendations.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.

UEFA Nations League

Portugal v Norway

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideOver 2.5 goals

64.5% market-implied chance · odds 1.50

Bookmaker market · Our model: experimental — not eligible for recommendations

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Portugal to win (55.9%).

Stored at Betano. Break-even: 66.7%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

Experimental fallback: data and predictive performance are not verified for recommendations.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.

UEFA Nations League

Wales v Denmark

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideDenmark or draw

75.4% market-implied chance · odds 1.29

Bookmaker market · Our model: experimental — not eligible for recommendations

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Denmark to win (49.8%).

Stored at Betano. Break-even: 77.5%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

Experimental fallback: data and predictive performance are not verified for recommendations.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.

UEFA Nations League

Rep. Of Ireland v Israel

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideRep. Of Ireland or draw

75.0% market-implied chance · odds 1.28

Bookmaker market · Our model: unavailable

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Rep. Of Ireland to win (47.6%).

Stored at Marathonbet. Break-even: 78.1%. Market likelihood cannot establish a model edge.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:30 UK. Prices need checking.

A valid stored model is unavailable.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

Market likelihood alone cannot establish model value.

Segunda División

Girona v Mallorca

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideEither team to win (no draw)

71.6% model estimate · odds 1.31

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Girona to win (40.0%).

Stored at 1xBet. Break-even: 76.3%. Policy price: 1.58 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:42 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

Primera División RFEF - Group 2

Zaragoza v Teruel

No recommendation — prices need checking

Likelihood guideBoth teams to score — No

65.2% model estimate · odds 1.53

Kickoff Edge model · Our model: available

Evidence & price check

Likeliest match result: Zaragoza to win (63.2%).

Stored at William Hill. Break-even: 65.4%. Policy price: 1.75 or better.

Odds updated 2 Oct 01:43 UK. Prices need checking.

Publisher odds are older than three hours or collection is older than 30 minutes.

No selection meets the price and value policy.

CONCACAF Nations League

Guyana v Dominica

Awaiting usable data

There is not enough usable data for a selection yet. Team news and recent form remain available.

No usable forecast · Our model: unavailable

Evidence & price check

Odds updated not supplied. Prices need checking.

A valid stored model is unavailable.

No valid pre-match odds snapshot.

Coverage and recommendation policy

65 scheduled matches: 36 with usable models, 7 with market fallback, 22 awaiting usable data. 0 models held for disagreement review. Counts cover this date and competition; rows are paginated.

Policy value-buffer-v1 compares match result, over/under 2.5, BTTS and double chance. It subtracts five percentage points from the model probability, requires a 5% estimated return after that buffer, and minimum odds of 1.25. Models must be within 24 hours; odds collected within 30 minutes and updated within three hours. These thresholds are a policy, not proof of calibration or profit. No guaranteed outcomes.