Likeliest match result
Castellón to win86.3% model estimate
Stored odds 1.29 · Betano
Segunda DivisiónMatchweek 8THE MATCH CENTRECastellón vs AD Ceuta FC match centre
Pre-match
17:30
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Kickoff Edge modelOur view of the game
A likely outcome and a good betting price are separate decisions.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Castellón to win
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Model chance86.3%
Best stored price1.29Betano
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. Value-filter price: 1.30 or better. No current price qualifies for a recommendation under this filter.
Break-even at this price: 77.5%. Estimated model return: +11.4% per unit staked, before model error.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals71.5% model estimate
Stored odds 1.40 · Bet365
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No57.6% model estimate
Stored odds 2.06 · 1xBet
Double chance
Castellón or draw95.9% model estimate
Stored odds 1.08 · Betano
Projected goals
3.70 total · Castellón 3.11 · AD Ceuta FC 0.59
Expected averages from the stored goal model, not a promised score.Most likely scorelines
3–0 12.4%2–0 12.0%4–0 9.7%
Home–away · individual scores remain uncertain.This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Available · Calculated 2 Oct 03:00 UK.
Odds updated 2 Oct 01:42 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 9 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Castellón 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
AD Ceuta FC 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Fetched 2 Oct, 00:56 UK. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
Home86.3%
Draw9.5%
Away4.1%
API-Football
Provider model estimate
Home45.0%
Draw45.0%
Away10.0%
Combo Winner : Castellón and +1.5 goals
Fetched 2 Oct, 04:00 UKProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Kickoff Edge · xG model leans towards Castellón (86.3%). The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Castellón
6/10Wins
1.5Goals / game
0.8Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At home, 6 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Castellón’s resultsAD Ceuta FC
3/10Wins
1.2Goals / game
2.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 6 losses in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect AD Ceuta FC’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Castellón
10 matchesResults6 wins · 2 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.5
Goals conceded per game0.8
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored3 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
LeganesAway · Segunda División2–0TenerifeHome · Segunda División5–0GironaAway · Segunda División2–1AlbaceteHome · Segunda División2–0Celta de Vigo IIAway · Segunda División2–1SabadellHome · Segunda División0–0Real Sociedad IIAway · Segunda División1–0LevanteHome · Friendlies Clubs1–3HérculesAway · Friendlies Clubs0–0AlavesAway · Friendlies Clubs0–3
AD Ceuta FC
10 matchesResults3 wins · 1 draws · 6 losses
Goals scored per game1.2
Goals conceded per game2.1
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored7 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Real Sociedad IIHome · Segunda División3–1ValladolidHome · Segunda División1–1BurgosAway · Segunda División1–3Celta de Vigo IIHome · Segunda División0–2MallorcaAway · Segunda División0–3Las PalmasHome · Segunda División0–2FC AndorraAway · Segunda División1–5MalagaHome · Friendlies Clubs2–1CadizAway · Friendlies Clubs3–1SevillaAway · Friendlies Clubs1–2
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Castellón at home with AD Ceuta FC away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 04:21 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Segunda División · 2026/27 · all league matches
CastellónAD Ceuta FC
6Matches played6
16Points earned1
5Wins0
2.0Goals scored / match0.5
0.3Goals conceded / match2.7
4Clean sheets0
1Failed to score3
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Castellón at home with AD Ceuta FC away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Castellón
Most-used league formation3-4-2-13 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
AD Ceuta FC
Most-used league formation4-3-34 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Segunda División table
Current standings · Segunda. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 19 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Eibar | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Almeria | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 15 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  Burgos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 14 | WWWDD |
| 5 |  Girona | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 | WWLWW |
| 6 |  Mallorca | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | LWWDW |
| 7 |  Sabadell | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 12 | DWLWW |
| 8 |  Oviedo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | WLWDW |
| 9 |  Tenerife | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 11 | DLWDL |
| 10 |  Leganes | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 | LLWDL |
| 12 |  Sporting Gijon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 10 | LWLLW |
| 13 |  Granada CF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | LLDLW |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | LLWDD |
| 15 |  Celta de Vigo II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 | DLLWL |
| 16 |  Valladolid | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 | WDLWD |
| 17 |  FC Andorra | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 6 | WLLLL |
| 18 |  Cordoba | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 6 | LWLLL |
| 19 |  Eldense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 | LLWDL |
| 20 |  Cadiz | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | DLLLD |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 | WDLLL |
| 22 |  Albacete | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 | LLDLL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Castellón | Draw | AD Ceuta FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.23 | 6.35 | 9.50 |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.26 | 6.32 | 9.62 |
| SBO | 1.22 | 5.32 | 7.43 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 6.00 | 9.00 |
Snapshot from 2 Oct 2026, 01:42 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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