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Premier LeagueMatchweek 25
EnglandTHE MATCH CENTRE

Leeds vs Nottingham Forest match centre

Leeds badgeLeedsHome · 14 in league
LWWDL
Momentum↘ Falling45/100OlderLatest
Full time
3:1
UK timeStored 90-minute score.
Nottingham Forest badgeNottingham ForestAway · 16 in league
DLWWD
Momentum↗ Rising56/100OlderLatest
Goalscorers
Venue to be confirmedSeason 2025/26Back to matches
Odds & probabilities Pre-match snapshot Home win—Market chance —See match research Draw—Market chance —See match research Away win—Market chance —See match research Odds unavailable 90-minute estimates · prices may change.
THE FINAL WHISTLE

The match in numbers

FULL TIME
LeedsNottingham Forest
5Corner Kicks10
9Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
Red Cards
5Goalkeeper Saves2
470Total passes347
393Passes accurate272

— means unavailable.

BEYOND THE SCORE

The quality of the chances.

See what the scoreline alone can’t tell you.

UNDERSTAT · RECORDED xG
Leeds3.38xG

3 goals -0.38 vs xG

CHANCE QUALITYxGFull-time analysis
Nottingham Forest1.66xG

1 goals -0.66 vs xG

67%Share of total xG · not a win probability33%

Read the performance, then the result. Compare each team’s goals with its xG to see whether the score matched the chances. Explore individual shots below when available.

Every chance has a story.

Bigger circles mean higher-quality chances. Ringed circles are goals.

Leeds Nottingham ForestBoth teams attack →
Leeds · Brenden Aaronson · 3′ · Blocked Shot · 0.11 xGLeeds · Joe Rodon · 3′ · Blocked Shot · 0.05 xGNottingham Forest · Callum Hudson-Odoi · 10′ · Saved Shot · 0.11 xGNottingham Forest · Nicolás Domínguez · 11′ · Blocked Shot · 0.04 xGNottingham Forest · Nicolás Domínguez · 11′ · Saved Shot · 0.08 xGNottingham Forest · Igor Jesus · 13′ · Saved Shot · 0.04 xGNottingham Forest · Igor Jesus · 21′ · Missed Shots · 0.06 xGLeeds · Dominic Calvert-Lewin · 24′ · Shot On Post · 0.31 xGLeeds · Noah Okafor · 24′ · Missed Shots · 0.54 xGLeeds · Jayden Bogle · 26′ · Goal · 0.30 xGLeeds · James Justin · 30′ · Saved Shot · 0.10 xGLeeds · Noah Okafor · 30′ · Goal · 0.58 xGNottingham Forest · Ibrahim Sangare · 39′ · Blocked Shot · 0.01 xGNottingham Forest · Ibrahim Sangare · 40′ · Missed Shots · 0.02 xGNottingham Forest · Morgan Gibbs-White · 42′ · Blocked Shot · 0.02 xGNottingham Forest · Morgan Gibbs-White · 44′ · Saved Shot · 0.04 xGLeeds · Noah Okafor · 49′ · Blocked Shot · 0.11 xGLeeds · Ilia Gruev · 49′ · Blocked Shot · 0.04 xGLeeds · Dominic Calvert-Lewin · 49′ · Goal · 0.64 xGLeeds · James Justin · 63′ · Missed Shots · 0.03 xGLeeds · Pascal Struijk · 66′ · Blocked Shot · 0.22 xGLeeds · Ilia Gruev · 66′ · Saved Shot · 0.51 xGLeeds · Brenden Aaronson · 66′ · Blocked Shot · 0.05 xGNottingham Forest · Ryan Yates · 73′ · Blocked Shot · 0.03 xGNottingham Forest · Dan Ndoye · 75′ · Missed Shots · 0.04 xGNottingham Forest · Morato · 78′ · Missed Shots · 0.51 xGNottingham Forest · Lorenzo Lucca · 86′ · Goal · 0.55 xGNottingham Forest · Ola Aina · 89′ · Missed Shots · 0.02 xGNottingham Forest · Ola Aina · 97′ · Missed Shots · 0.01 xGNottingham Forest · Ibrahim Sangare · 99′ · Saved Shot · 0.06 xG

30 recorded shots · select or tab to a circle · locations normalised to the same attacking direction

View recorded shots as a table 30 shots
Recorded shots · minute shown as elapsed minute + 1
MinuteTeam / playerOutcomexG
3′Brenden AaronsonLeedsBlocked Shot0.11
3′Joe RodonLeedsBlocked Shot0.05
10′Callum Hudson-OdoiNottingham ForestSaved Shot0.11
11′Nicolás DomínguezNottingham ForestBlocked Shot0.04
11′Nicolás DomínguezNottingham ForestSaved Shot0.08
13′Igor JesusNottingham ForestSaved Shot0.04
21′Igor JesusNottingham ForestMissed Shots0.06
24′Dominic Calvert-LewinLeedsShot On Post0.31
24′Noah OkaforLeedsMissed Shots0.54
26′Jayden BogleLeedsGoal0.30
30′James JustinLeedsSaved Shot0.10
30′Noah OkaforLeedsGoal0.58
39′Ibrahim SangareNottingham ForestBlocked Shot0.01
40′Ibrahim SangareNottingham ForestMissed Shots0.02
42′Morgan Gibbs-WhiteNottingham ForestBlocked Shot0.02
44′Morgan Gibbs-WhiteNottingham ForestSaved Shot0.04
49′Noah OkaforLeedsBlocked Shot0.11
49′Ilia GruevLeedsBlocked Shot0.04
49′Dominic Calvert-LewinLeedsGoal0.64
63′James JustinLeedsMissed Shots0.03
66′Pascal StruijkLeedsBlocked Shot0.22
66′Ilia GruevLeedsSaved Shot0.51
66′Brenden AaronsonLeedsBlocked Shot0.05
73′Ryan YatesNottingham ForestBlocked Shot0.03
75′Dan NdoyeNottingham ForestMissed Shots0.04
78′MoratoNottingham ForestMissed Shots0.51
86′Lorenzo LuccaNottingham ForestGoal0.55
89′Ola AinaNottingham ForestMissed Shots0.02
97′Ola AinaNottingham ForestMissed Shots0.01
99′Ibrahim SangareNottingham ForestSaved Shot0.06

Verified source record refreshed 22 Sep 2026, 19:04 UTC. Post-match data, not a live feed.

How to use expected goals

xG measures chance quality. A shot worth 0.20 xG would be scored about 20 times in 100 comparable attempts. Add the shots together to describe the chances a team created.

Compare the performance with the result. Goals above xG means the team scored more than its chance total; goals below xG means it scored less. It does not prove luck, predict the next result or guarantee a correction.

Keep the context. Penalties, red cards, game state and opponents matter. Use several matches and the home/away filter. xG share is a share of chance quality, not a win probability. Different data providers can calculate different xG values.

CHANCE QUALITY, IN CONTEXT.Understat post-match evidence · separate from Kickoff Edge’s predictions
MODEL OUTLOOK

Match forecast

Model estimate unavailable.

Goals & BTTS

90 minutes

Total goals · 2.5

Over—
Under—

Both teams to score

Yes—
No—

Model estimates unavailable

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Team news & availability

API-Football

Season form /10 · Ability /99 (EA FC 27) · Prev = previous season.

Leeds

Home0 listed

Availability report unavailable.

Nottingham Forest

Away0 listed

Availability report unavailable.

· Ability: EA FC 27 base ratings.

Season overview

Premier League · 2025/26

League season · all league matches

Leeds

24 league matches

26 pts6W8D10L
1.3Goals scored / match1.0
1.8Goals conceded / match1.5
4Clean sheets5
7Failed to score11
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING

Recent form

Last 10 games · all venues and competitions · previous 365 days.

THE STORY SO FAR

Head-to-head

0 recorded meetings

Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.

TEAM SELECTION

Lineups & formations

Starting XIs

Season form /10 · Ability /99 (EA FC 27) · — unavailable.

Leeds

Formation3-4-2-1Daniel Farke
  1. 26K. DarlowForm 7.1Ability —G
  2. 24J. JustinForm 6.9Ability —D
  3. 6J. RodonForm 6.7Ability —D
  4. 5P. StruijkForm 6.8Ability —D
  5. 2J. BogleForm 6.6Ability —M
  6. 4E. AmpaduForm 7.2Ability —M
  7. 44I. GruevForm 6.7Ability —M
  8. 3G. GudmundssonForm 6.7Ability —M
  9. 11B. AaronsonForm 6.8Ability —F
  10. 19N. OkaforForm 6.9Ability —F
  11. 9D. Calvert-LewinForm 6.7Ability —F
Substitutes (9)

1 · Lucas PerriForm 6.6Ability 76

7 · D. JamesForm 6.6Ability —

23 · S. BornauwForm 6.7Ability 75

15 · J. BijolForm 6.9Ability 77

14 · L. NmechaForm 6.7Ability —

8 · S. LongstaffForm 6.9Ability —

10 · J. PiroeForm 6.5Ability —

22 · A. TanakaForm 6.7Ability 76

29 · W. GnontoForm 6.6Ability —

Nottingham Forest

Formation4-2-3-1Vitor Pereira
  1. 27S. OrtegaForm 7.0Ability —G
  2. 44Z. AbbottForm 6.5Ability 63D
  3. 31N. MilenkovicForm 6.8Ability 80D
  4. 4MoratoForm 7.0Ability 75D
  5. 34O. AinaForm 6.9Ability —D
  6. 6I. SangareForm 7.0Ability 78M
  7. 8E. AndersonForm 7.4Ability —M
  8. 16N. DominguezForm 6.8Ability —M
  9. 10M. Gibbs-WhiteForm 6.9Ability —M
  10. 7C. Hudson-OdoiForm 6.9Ability —M
  11. 19Igor JesusForm 6.6Ability 77F
Substitutes (9)

18 · A. GunnForm 6.3Ability —

9 · T. AwoniyiForm 6.7Ability —

22 · R. YatesForm 6.7Ability —

25 · L. NetzForm 6.7Ability 73

24 · J. McAteeForm 6.5Ability —

23 · CunhaForm 6.6Ability 75

20 · L. LuccaForm 6.6Ability 75

14 · D. NdoyeForm 6.6Ability —

21 · O. HutchinsonForm 6.8Ability —

INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE

Player statistics

This match

Leeds

PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsPassesTackles
Karl Darlow908.2—0—40—
James Justin907.6—12582
Joe Rodon906.9—0—742
Pascal Struijk907.3—0—751
Jayden Bogle897.7101355
Ethan Ampadu907.2—0—542
Ilia Gruev908.2—2145—
Gabriel Gudmundsson907.5—0—315
Brenden Aaronson786.7—0—222
Noah Okafor828.3102203
Dominic Calvert-Lewin906.510215—
Daniel James126.2—0—5—
Sean Longstaff86.2—0—3—
Sebastiaan Bornauw1——0———
Lucas Perri———————
Jaka Bijol———————
Ao Tanaka———————
Wilfried Gnonto———————
Joël Piroe———————
Lukas Nmecha———————

Nottingham Forest

PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsPassesTackles
Stefan Ortega906.3—0—26—
Zach Abbott766.2—0—271
Nikola Milenković906.3—0—29—
Morato906.3—01382
Ola Aina906.3—02301
Ibrahim Sangaré906.5—02323
Elliot Anderson907.0—0—674
Nicolás Domínguez546.7—01231
Morgan Gibbs-White676.6—0116—
Callum Hudson-Odoi676.5—0114—
Igor Jesus546.5—0291
Omari Hutchinson367.2—1—8—
Lorenzo Lucca367.51014—
Dan Ndoye236.5—0191
Ryan Yates236.3—0—5—
Luca Netz146.6—0—13—
Angus Gunn———————
Jair———————
James McAtee———————
Taiwo Awoniyi———————
2025/26 STANDINGS

Premier League table

League centre ↗

Current standings · Premier League. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Arsenal38267571274485
WWWWW
2Manchester City38239677354278
LDWWD
3Manchester United382011769501971
WWDWW
4Aston Villa38198115649765
WWDLL
5Liverpool381791263531060
DLDLW
6Bournemouth38131875854457
DDWWD
7Sunderland381412124248-654
WWDDL
8Brighton381411135246653
LLWLW
9Brentford381411135552353
DDLWL
10Chelsea381410145852652
LWDLL
11Fulham38157164751-452
WDLLW
12Newcastle38147175355-249
LWDWL
13Everton381310154750-349
LLDDL
14Leeds381114134956-747
LWDWD
15Crystal Palace381112154151-1045
LDLDL
16Nottingham Forest381111164851-344
DLDWW
17Tottenham381011174857-941
WLDWW
18West Ham38109194665-1939
WLLLW
19Burnley38410243875-3722
DLDLL
20Wolves38311242768-4120
DDLDL
THE MARKET VIEW

Match-winner odds

Decimal · 90 minutes

Match-winner odds unavailable.

AT A GLANCE

Match details

Competition
Premier League
Round
Matchweek 25
Venue
To be confirmed
Referee
Not announced
Kickoff
6 Feb · 20:00 UK
Match data by API-Football
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