Port Vale
3/10Wins
0.8Goals / game
1.5Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At home, 0 wins from 5 available matches.
Inspect Port Vale’s results
League OneMatchweek 35THE MATCH CENTREPort Vale vs Luton match centre
90′ · Live
1:1
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
B. Waine29′
N. Wells5′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate3.7%Port Vale
Draw92.5%at full time
Current result estimate3.8%Luton
Another goal7.7%before full time
Next goal: Port Vale 3.8% · no further goal 92.3% · Luton 3.9%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.Port ValeLuton
1.550Expected goals · API-Football2.340
5Shots on target5
11Total Shots12
39%Ball Possession61%
6Corner Kicks6
18Fouls15
3Yellow Cards3
—Red Cards—
4Goalkeeper Saves4
247Total passes394
162Passes accurate303
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
League One: Regular seasonProvisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lincoln | 46 | +48 | 103 | — |
| 2 |  Cardiff | 46 | +40 | 91 | — |
| 3 |  Stockport County | 46 | +13 | 77 | — |
| 4 |  Bradford | 46 | +7 | 77 | — |
| 5 |  Bolton | 46 | +18 | 75 | — |
| 6 |  Luton | 47 | +12 | 75 | ↑ 1 |
| 7 |  Stevenage | 46 | +3 | 75 | ↓ 1 |
| 8 |  Plymouth | 46 | +12 | 73 | — |
| 9 |  Huddersfield | 46 | +10 | 67 | — |
| 10 |  Mansfield Town | 46 | +12 | 65 | — |
| 11 |  Wycombe | 46 | +11 | 63 | — |
| 12 |  Reading | 46 | +4 | 63 | — |
| 13 |  Blackpool | 46 | -11 | 60 | — |
| 14 |  Doncaster | 46 | -19 | 60 | — |
| 15 |  Barnsley | 46 | -5 | 59 | — |
| 16 |  Wigan | 46 | -9 | 56 | — |
| 17 |  Burton Albion | 46 | -10 | 54 | — |
| 18 |  Peterborough | 46 | -4 | 53 | — |
| 19 |  AFC Wimbledon | 46 | -21 | 53 | — |
| 20 |  Leyton Orient | 46 | -12 | 52 | — |
| 21 |  Exeter City | 46 | -9 | 49 | — |
| 22 | Port Vale | 47 | -25 | 43 | — |
| 23 |  Rotherham | 46 | -30 | 41 | — |
| 24 |  Northampton | 46 | -35 | 35 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Port Vale 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Luton 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Luton
3/10Wins
1.0Goals / game
1.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 5 losses in that sample. At away venues, 0 wins from 4 available matches.
Inspect Luton’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Port Vale
10 matchesResults3 wins · 3 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game0.8
Goals conceded per game1.5
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
NorthamptonAway · League One1–0ReadingHome · League One1–1StevenageAway · League One1–2Stockport CountyHome · EFL Trophy0–4Burton AlbionHome · League One2–2Leyton OrientAway · League One1–0Exeter CityHome · League One1–3Mansfield TownAway · League One0–3BoltonAway · EFL Trophy1–0NorthamptonHome · League One0–0
Luton
10 matchesResults3 wins · 2 draws · 5 losses
Goals scored per game1.0
Goals conceded per game1.3
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Port Vale at home with Luton away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 03:03 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
League One · 2025/26 · all league matches
Port ValeLuton
31Matches played33
26Points earned46
6Wins13
0.8Goals scored / match1.3
1.4Goals conceded / match1.2
8Clean sheets11
16Failed to score9
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Port Vale at home with Luton away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Port Vale
Confirmed formation4-3-3Jon Brady
- 46
J. GauciG - 24
Kyle JohnD - 25
C. HumphreysD - 5
C. HallD - 15
L. GordonD - 14
F. OjoM - 12
R. WaltersM - 33
G. HallM - 6
J. Lawrence-GabrielF - 19
B. WaineF - 9
J. StockleyF
Substitutes (7)
13 · B. Amos
28 · G. Ward
21 · M. Sherif
45 · A. Gray
35 · T. Magloire
26 · J. Shipley
3 · J. Headley
Luton
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Jack Wilshere
- 24
J. KeeleyG - 25
I. JonesD - 17
N. LonwijkD - 3
K. NaismithD - 38
J. JohnsonD - 23
G. SavilleM - 8
L. WalshM - 27
J. RichardsM - 18
J. ClarkM - 32
E. LawrenceM - 21
N. WellsF
Substitutes (7)
1 · J. Shea
16 · H. Odoffin
14 · S. Morris
54 · K. Palmer
6 · D. van den Berg
12 · A. Al Hamadi
44 · H. Fox
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Port Vale
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Gauci | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 29 | — |
| Kyle John | 90 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 26 | 1 |
| Cameron Humphreys | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 27 | 1 |
| Connor Hall | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 35 | 5 |
| Liam Gordon | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 30 | — |
| Funso Ojo | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 36 | 3 |
| Rhys Walters | 77 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 13 | 4 |
| George Hall | 78 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 3 | 11 | 6 |
| Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel | 90 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 34 | — |
| Ben Waine | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
| Jayden Stockley | 66 | 6.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 8 | — |
| Andre Gray | 24 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 2 | — |
| Jordan Shipley | 13 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 11 | — |
| Martin Sherif | 12 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Ben Amos | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Magloire | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Grant Ward | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jaheim Headley | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Luton
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Keeley | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 24 | — |
| Isaiah Jones | 80 | 5.6 | — | 0 | — | 23 | 2 |
| Nigel Cello Lonwijk | 80 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 42 | 1 |
| Kal Naismith | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 49 | — |
| Joseph Johnson | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 49 | 4 |
| George Saville | 90 | 7.7 | — | 0 | — | 57 | 2 |
| Liam Walsh | 71 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 50 | — |
| Jake Richards | 61 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 17 | 3 |
| Jordan Clark | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 32 | 2 |
| Emilio Lawrence | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | 32 | 1 |
| Nahki Wells | 61 | 7.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Kasey Palmer | 29 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 11 | — |
| Ali Al-Hamadi | 29 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Davy van den Berg | 19 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 13 | 1 |
| Hakeem Odofin | 10 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 8 | — |
| Shayden Morris | 10 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 4 | 1 |
| James Shea | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Harry Fox | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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