Toulouse
3/10Wins
1.1Goals / game
1.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At home, 2 wins from 6 available matches.
Inspect Toulouse’s results
Ligue 1Matchweek 27THE MATCH CENTREToulouse vs Lorient match centre
90′ · Live
1:0
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
Emersonn82′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
MATCHDAY LIVE
90′ IN PLAYInside the game
Every chance. Every turning point.
KICKOFF EDGE LIVE READING
GOOD DATAWhat the match state suggests now
Current result estimate95.9%Toulouse
Draw4.0%at full time
Current result estimate0.1%Lorient
Another goal8.1%before full time
Next goal: Toulouse 4.0% · no further goal 91.9% · Lorient 4.2%.
Experimental model combining the pre-match forecast with score, time, shots, shots on target, possession, corners and red cards. This is not live xG or bookmaker odds.ToulouseLorient
1.150Expected goals · API-Football0.400
3Shots on target2
10Total Shots7
42%Ball Possession58%
0Corner Kicks4
7Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
—Red Cards—
2Goalkeeper Saves2
431Total passes577
358Passes accurate513
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
IF THE SCORE HOLDS
Ligue 1 Provisional table
Illustrative positions after applying the current score to the latest stored standings. Official tables can also change as other live matches finish.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 34 | +45 | 76 | — |
| 2 |  Lens | 34 | +31 | 70 | — |
| 3 |  Lille | 34 | +15 | 61 | — |
| 4 |  Lyon | 34 | +13 | 60 | — |
| 5 |  Marseille | 34 | +18 | 59 | — |
| 6 |  Rennes | 34 | +9 | 59 | — |
| 7 |  Monaco | 34 | +6 | 54 | — |
| 8 |  Strasbourg | 34 | +11 | 53 | — |
| 9 | Toulouse | 34 | +2 | 47 | ↑ 1 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 35 | -4 | 45 | ↓ 1 |
| 11 |  Paris FC | 34 | -3 | 44 | — |
| 12 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 34 | -12 | 39 | — |
| 13 |  Angers | 34 | -19 | 36 | — |
| 14 |  Le Havre | 34 | -12 | 35 | — |
| 15 |  Auxerre | 34 | -10 | 34 | — |
| 16 |  Nice | 34 | -23 | 32 | — |
| 17 |  Nantes | 33 | -23 | 23 | — |
| 18 |  Metz | 34 | -44 | 17 | — |
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Toulouse 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Lorient 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Lorient
5/10Wins
1.6Goals / game
1.0Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At away venues, 2 wins from 5 available matches.
Inspect Lorient’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Toulouse
10 matchesResults3 wins · 3 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game1.1
Goals conceded per game1.1
Games with 3+ goals3 of 10
Both teams scored4 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
Lorient
10 matchesResults5 wins · 4 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game1.6
Goals conceded per game1.0
Games with 3+ goals4 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Toulouse at home with Lorient away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 01:53 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Ligue 1 · 2025/26 · all league matches
ToulouseLorient
26Matches played26
34Points earned37
9Wins9
1.4Goals scored / match1.4
1.3Goals conceded / match1.6
8Clean sheets5
9Failed to score7
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Toulouse at home with Lorient away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Toulouse
Confirmed formation3-4-3Carles Martinez
- 1
G. RestesG - 3
M. McKenzieD - 35
S. KoumbassaD - 2
R. NicolaisenD - 15
A. DonnumM - 23
C. CasseresM - 18
P. DembaM - 19
D. SidibeM - 11
S. HidalgoF - 13
J. Russell-RoweF - 10
Y. GbohoF
Substitutes (9)
16 · K. Haug
40 · N. Said Mchindra
12 · W. Kamanzi
77 · M. Sauer
44 · G. Bakhouche Piernas
37 · I. Azizi
20 · Emersonn
7 · J. Vignolo
45 · A. Vossah
Lorient
Confirmed formation3-4-2-1Olivier Pantaloni
- 38
Y. MvogoG - 44
D. YongwaD - 32
N. AdjeiD - 25
A. FayeD - 11
T. Le BrisM - 8
N. CadiouM - 62
A. AvomM - 43
A. KouassiM - 17
J. MakengoF - 29
D. KarimF - 12
B. DiengF
Substitutes (9)
21 · B. Kamara
14 · T. Sanusi
19 · I. Monnier
35 · D. Semedo
15 · A. Tosin
77 · P. Katseris
28 · S. Soumano
34 · M. Bley
33 · I. Akakpo
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Toulouse
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guillaume Restes | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 18 | — |
| Mark McKenzie | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 44 | — |
| Seny Koumbassa | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 50 | 1 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | 44 | — |
| Aron Dønnum | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 51 | — |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 90 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | 71 | 1 |
| Pape Diop | 90 | 7.2 | — | 0 | 1 | 42 | 2 |
| Djibril Sidibé | 84 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | 34 | 3 |
| Santiago Hidalgo | 65 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 3 | 14 | — |
| Jacen Russell-Rowe | 64 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 15 | 1 |
| Yann Gboho | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 36 | 2 |
| Emersonn | 26 | 7.6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | — |
| Warren Kamanzi | 25 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 8 | — |
| Mario Sauer | 17 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Kjetil Haug | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Naime Said Mchindra | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gaëtan Bakhouche | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexis Vossah | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ilyas Azizi | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julian Vignolo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Lorient
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yvon Mvogo | 90 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 60 | — |
| Darlin Yongwa | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 36 | 2 |
| Nathaniel Adjei | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 76 | — |
| Abdoulaye Faye | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 81 | 1 |
| Théo Le Bris | 79 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 26 | 1 |
| Noah Cadiou | 90 | 7.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 90 | 1 |
| Arthur Avom Ebong | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 104 | 1 |
| Arsène Kouassi | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | 36 | — |
| Jean-Victor Makengo | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 38 | 1 |
| Karim Dermane | 73 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 30 | 2 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 73 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 5 | — |
| Sambou Soumano | 17 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Aiyegun Tosin | 17 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | 9 | — |
| Panos Katseris | 11 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 9 | 1 |
| Bingourou Kamara | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Izak Akakpo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Isaac Monnier | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Semedo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Bley | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Trevan Sanusi | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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