Real Madrid
3/5Wins
2.8Goals / game
1.4Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At home, 2 wins from 2 available matches.
Inspect Real Madrid’s results
La LigaMatchweek 22THE MATCH CENTREReal Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano match centre
Full time
2:1
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
Vinicius Junior15′
K. Mbappe90′ (pen)
J. de Frutos49′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
Real MadridRayo Vallecano
2.140Expected goals · API-Football0.960
6Shots on target4
16Total Shots11
57%Ball Possession43%
9Corner Kicks4
6Fouls18
2Yellow Cards8
0Red Cards2
3Goalkeeper Saves4
580Total passes441
519Passes accurate388
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Real Madrid 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Rayo Vallecano 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Rayo Vallecano
0/4Wins
0.3Goals / game
2.8Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At away venues, 0 wins from 2 available matches.
Inspect Rayo Vallecano’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- At least one team has fewer than five usable recent results.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Real Madrid
5 matchesResults3 wins · 1 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game2.8
Goals conceded per game1.4
Games with 3+ goals3 of 5
Both teams scored3 of 5
Past results, not predictions.
Rayo Vallecano
4 matchesResults0 wins · 0 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game0.3
Goals conceded per game2.8
Games with 3+ goals3 of 4
Both teams scored1 of 4
Only a few results are available.
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Real Madrid at home with Rayo Vallecano away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 09:32 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
La Liga · 2025/26 · all league matches
Real MadridRayo Vallecano
21Matches played21
51Points earned22
16Wins5
2.1Goals scored / match0.8
0.8Goals conceded / match1.3
10Clean sheets6
2Failed to score10
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Real Madrid at home with Rayo Vallecano away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Real Madrid
Confirmed formation4-4-2Alvaro Arbeloa
- 1
T. CourtoisG - 8
F. ValverdeD - 17
R. AsencioD - 24
D. HuijsenD - 6
E. CamavingaD - 30
F. MastantuonoM - 15
A. GulerM - 14
A. TchouameniM - 5
J. BellinghamM - 10
K. MbappeF - 7
Vinicius JuniorF
Substitutes (10)
13 · A. Lunin
26 · Fran
2 · D. Carvajal
4 · D. Alaba
11 · Rodrygo
16 · G. Garcia
18 · A. Carreras
19 · D. Ceballos
20 · F. Garcia
21 · B. Diaz
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed formation4-2-3-1Inigo Perez
- 13
A. BatallaG - 2
A. RatiuD - 24
F. LejeuneD - 32
N. MendyD - 3
P. ChavarriaD - 6
P. CissM - 15
G. GumbauM - 12
I. AkhomachM - 7
I. PalazonM - 18
A. GarciaM - 19
J. de FrutosF
Substitutes (12)
1 · D. Cardenas
4 · P. Diaz
5 · Luiz Felipe
8 · O. Trejo
9 · Alemao
10 · S. Camello
11 · R. Nteka
14 · C. Martin
20 · I. Balliu
21 · F. Perez
22 · Pacha
23 · O. Valentin
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thibaut Courtois | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 26 | — |
| Federico Valverde | 90 | 7.9 | — | 0 | — | 69 | 1 |
| Raúl Asencio | 45 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | 28 | — |
| Dean Huijsen | 77 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | 67 | 1 |
| Eduardo Camavinga | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 76 | 4 |
| Franco Mastantuono | 60 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 19 | 2 |
| Arda Güler | 77 | 7.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 48 | 1 |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 67 | 3 |
| Jude Bellingham | 10 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 4 | — |
| Kylian Mbappé | 90 | 6.9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 44 | 3 |
| Brahim Díaz | 80 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | 28 | 1 |
| Dani Ceballos | 45 | 7.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 50 | 1 |
| Gonzalo García | 30 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 5 | 1 |
| David Alaba | 13 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 15 | — |
| Rodrygo | 13 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 16 | 3 |
| Andriy Lunin | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran González | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Carreras | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran García | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Carvajal | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augusto Batalla | 90 | 6.0 | — | 0 | — | 32 | — |
| Andrei Rațiu | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 49 | 4 |
| Florian Lejeune | 90 | 7.0 | — | 0 | — | 54 | 3 |
| Nobel Mendy | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 40 | 3 |
| Josep Chavarría | 90 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 46 | 5 |
| Pathé Ismaël Ciss | 80 | 6.0 | — | 0 | 1 | 51 | — |
| Gerard Gumbau | 56 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 34 | 1 |
| Ilias Akhomach | 83 | 6.9 | — | 0 | 1 | 25 | 3 |
| Isi Palazón | 83 | 5.9 | — | 0 | — | 38 | 1 |
| Álvaro García | 77 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Jorge de Frutos | 56 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | — |
| Pedro Díaz | 34 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | 14 | 1 |
| Óscar Valentín | 34 | 6.5 | — | 0 | 1 | 27 | 1 |
| Alfonso Espino | 13 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 5 | — |
| Luiz Felipe | 22 | 6.2 | — | 0 | — | 1 | — |
| Carlos Martín | 22 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | 3 | — |
| Dani Cárdenas | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iván Balliu | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran Pérez | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Óscar Trejo | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alemão | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergio Camello | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Randy Nteka | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
2025/26 STANDINGS
League centre ↗La Liga table
Current standings · Primera División. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 95 | 36 | 59 | 94 | LWLWW |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 77 | 35 | 42 | 86 | WWWLW |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72 | 46 | 26 | 72 | WLLDW |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 62 | 44 | 18 | 69 | LWWLW |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 59 | 48 | 11 | 60 | WLWDW |
| 6 |  Celta Vigo | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 54 | WDLWW |
| 7 |  Getafe | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 51 | WLWDL |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 50 | WWDDW |
| 9 |  Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 49 | WWDWL |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 46 | DLDDL |
| 11 |  Espanyol | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 46 | DWWLL |
| 12 |  Athletic Club | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 45 | LDLLW |
| 13 |  Sevilla | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 60 | -14 | 43 | LLWWW |
| 14 |  Alaves | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 43 | LWWDL |
| 15 |  Elche | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 43 | DWLDL |
| 16 |  Levante | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 42 | LWWWL |
| 17 |  Osasuna | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 42 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  Mallorca | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 42 | WLLDW |
| 19 |  Girona | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 41 | DLDDL |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 29 | LLLDL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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