AEL
3/7Wins
1.0Goals / game
1.1Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 1 wins from 1 available matches.
Inspect AEL’s results
1. DivisionMatchweek 22THE MATCH CENTREAEL vs Pafos match centre
Full time
0:1
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
Bruno29′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Unavailable · Calculated Not supplied.
Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
AELPafos
1.480Expected goals · API-Football0.590
4Shots on target3
15Total Shots6
49%Ball Possession51%
3Corner Kicks2
7Fouls24
3Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
2Goalkeeper Saves4
382Total passes406
332Passes accurate347
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
AEL 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Pafos 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Pafos
4/9Wins
1.6Goals / game
1.3Conceded / game
Keep in view: 5 losses in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 4 available matches.
Inspect Pafos’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
AEL
7 matchesResults3 wins · 1 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.0
Goals conceded per game1.1
Games with 3+ goals3 of 7
Both teams scored3 of 7
Past results, not predictions.
Pafos
9 matchesResults4 wins · 0 draws · 5 losses
Goals scored per game1.6
Goals conceded per game1.3
Games with 3+ goals5 of 9
Both teams scored4 of 9
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Digenis MorphouAway · Cup3–0Omonia NicosiaHome · 1. Division2–4Apoel NicosiaHome · 1. Division2–0Ethnikos AchnaAway · 1. Division1–2Slavia PrahaHome · UEFA Champions League4–1AEK LarnacaHome · 1. Division1–2ChelseaAway · UEFA Champions League0–1OlympiakosAway · 1. Division0–2AELHome · 1. Division1–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare AEL at home with Pafos away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 03:44 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
1. Division · 2025/26 · all league matches
AELPafos
21Matches played21
30Points earned40
9Wins13
1.2Goals scored / match1.9
1.4Goals conceded / match1.0
6Clean sheets9
9Failed to score2
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares AEL at home with Pafos away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
AEL
Confirmed formation5-4-1Hugo Martins
- 13
G. OchoaG - 35
Sergio ConceicaoD - 21
L. BogdanD - 15
D. StevanovicD - 24
E. ImanishimweD - 19
I. MilosavljevicD - 40
T. MasekoM - 26
N. GlavcicM - 6
D. ZdravkovskiM - 23
Leo NatelM - 27
Z. SawoF
Substitutes (11)
98 · P. Kyriakou
99 · A. Keravnos
8 · V. Papafotis
10 · B. Z. Jradi
11 · L. Singh
22 · K. Neofytou
25 · A. Panagiotou Filiotis
33 · A. Makris
45 · F. Forestieri
63 · F. R. Mughe
29 · D. Paroutis
Pafos
Confirmed formation3-4-2-1Albert Celades
- 1
J. GorterG - 26
I. SunjicD - 4
David LuizD - 19
A. GuessandD - 7
BrunoM - 30
V. DragomirM - 88
PepeM - 14
N. IoannouM - 11
JajaM - 80
Dani SilvaM - 18
LeleF
Substitutes (11)
99 · A. Papadoudis
93 · N. Michail
2 · K. Pileas
50 · A. Brito
42 · G. Michael
21 · O. Mimovic
12 · K. Sema
33 · Anderson Silva
17 · M. Orsic
9 · M. Bassouamina
87 · P. Caldieraro
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
AEL
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guillermo Ochoa | 90 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | — | 16 | 0 |
| Sérgio Conceição | 90 | 7.3 | 0 | 0 | — | 40 | 0 |
| Luka Bogdan | 90 | 7.5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Dušan Stevanović | 84 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | — | 23 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Imanishimwe | 90 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | — | 42 | 0 |
| Ivan Milosavljević | 90 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 44 | 0 |
| Thapelo Maseko | 84 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Nemanja Glavčić | 90 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 47 | 0 |
| Davor Zdravkovski | 90 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | — | 61 | 0 |
| Léo Natel | 78 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Zakaria Sawo | 90 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | — | 11 | 0 |
| Luther Singh | 27 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Bassel Jradi | 21 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| François Régis Mughe | 21 | 7.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Andreas Makris | 9 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | — | 1 | 0 |
Pafos
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Gorter | 90 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | — | 24 | 0 |
| Ivan Šunjić | 44 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | — | 17 | 1 |
| David Luiz | 90 | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | — | 63 | 0 |
| Axel Guessand | 90 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | — | 64 | 1 |
| Bruno | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 50 | 0 |
| Vlad Dragomir | 90 | 7.0 | 0 | 0 | — | 38 | 2 |
| Pêpê | 90 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 54 | 0 |
| Nicholas Ioannou | 89 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | — | 26 | 0 |
| Jajá | 90 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Dani Silva | 79 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | — | 24 | 0 |
| Lelê | 79 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ognjen Mimović | 61 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | — | 10 | 0 |
| Alexandre Brito | 26 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 | 0 |
| Anderson Silva | 26 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ken Sema | 16 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 |
2025/26 STANDINGS
League centre ↗1. Division table
Current standings · 1-division: Regular season. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Omonia Nicosia | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 63 | 17 | 46 | 61 | WWDLW |
| 2 |  AEK Larnaca | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 22 | 27 | 53 | WWDLL |
| 3 |  Apollon Limassol | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 22 | 14 | 53 | DWDWW |
| 4 | Pafos | 26 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 53 | 24 | 29 | 51 | WWDDW |
| 5 |  Apoel Nicosia | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 27 | 18 | 45 | WLWWL |
| 6 |  Aris | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 48 | 26 | 22 | 43 | LWDDD |
| 7 |  Omonia Aradippou | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 34 | WLWWD |
| 8 | AEL | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 33 | LLLWL |
| 9 |  Anorthosis | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 32 | DWWDD |
| 10 |  Krasava Ypsonas | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 28 | WLWDD |
| 11 |  Olympiakos | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 22 | 37 | -15 | 28 | LWDLD |
| 12 |  Akritas | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 23 | 48 | -25 | 26 | LLLWD |
| 13 |  Ethnikos Achna | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 25 | 44 | -19 | 23 | LLLLW |
| 14 |  Enosis | 26 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 5 | 67 | -62 | 1 | LLLLL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
No current match-winner prices have been supplied for this fixture.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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