Likeliest match result
Vancouver Whitecaps to win47.6% model estimate
Stored odds 2.28 · Pinnacle
Major League SoccerMatchweek 16THE MATCH CENTREChicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps match centre
Pre-match
01:30
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Kickoff Edge modelOur view of the game
A likely outcome and a good betting price are separate decisions.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Either team to win (no draw)
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Model chance76.6%
Best stored price1.25William Hill
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. Value-filter price: 1.47 or better. No current price qualifies for a recommendation under this filter.
Break-even at this price: 80.0%. Estimated model return: -4.2% per unit staked, before model error.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals59.3% model estimate
Stored odds 1.49 · Pinnacle
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes60.6% model estimate
Stored odds 1.40 · William Hill
Double chance
Either team to win (no draw)76.6% model estimate
Stored odds 1.25 · William Hill
Projected goals
3.07 total · Chicago Fire 1.32 · Vancouver Whitecaps 1.75
Expected averages from the stored goal model, not a promised score.Most likely scorelines
1–1 10.7%1–2 9.4%0–1 8.1%
Home–away · individual scores remain uncertain.This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Available · Calculated 2 Oct 00:26 UK.
Odds updated 1 Oct 21:01 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 7 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Chicago Fire 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Vancouver Whitecaps 0 reported
Availability report not received yet.
Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
Home29.0%
Draw23.4%
Away47.6%
API-Football
Provider model estimate
No valid forecast received yet.
Awaiting provider forecastProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Kickoff Edge · xG model leans towards Vancouver Whitecaps (47.6%). The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Chicago Fire
3/10Wins
1.5Goals / game
1.7Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At home, 5 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Chicago Fire’s resultsVancouver Whitecaps
4/10Wins
2.1Goals / game
1.2Conceded / game
Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At away venues, 5 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Vancouver Whitecaps’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Chicago Fire
10 matchesResults3 wins · 4 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.5
Goals conceded per game1.7
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored8 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
CharlotteAway · Major League Soccer1–0Nashville SCAway · Major League Soccer0–3New England RevolutionHome · Major League Soccer1–2Inter MiamiHome · Major League Soccer1–1Toronto FCAway · Major League Soccer4–4Seattle SoundersAway · Major League Soccer2–2MonterreyAway · Leagues Cup1–2New York Red BullsAway · Major League Soccer1–1Orlando City SCAway · Major League Soccer2–1Portland TimbersHome · Major League Soccer2–1
Vancouver Whitecaps
10 matchesResults4 wins · 2 draws · 4 losses
Goals scored per game2.1
Goals conceded per game1.2
Games with 3+ goals8 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
DC UnitedHome · Major League Soccer3–3Real Salt LakeAway · Major League Soccer3–0CF MontrealAway · Canadian Championship1–2AustinHome · Major League Soccer1–2Los Angeles GalaxyHome · Major League Soccer3–0St. Louis CityHome · Major League Soccer1–3CF MontrealHome · Canadian Championship1–1Sporting Kansas CityAway · Major League Soccer3–0FC DallasHome · Major League Soccer5–0Houston DynamoHome · Major League Soccer0–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Chicago Fire at home with Vancouver Whitecaps away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 01:59 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Major League Soccer · 2026/27 · all league matches
Chicago FireVancouver Whitecaps
14Matches played14
26Points earned32
8Wins10
1.9Goals scored / match2.4
1.1Goals conceded / match0.8
6Clean sheets5
1Failed to score2
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Chicago Fire at home with Vancouver Whitecaps away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
4 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Chicago Fire
2wins4MEETINGS
Vancouver Whitecaps
2winsApr 2021 – Mar 2025 · Past results, not a forecast.
Scores shown with Chicago Fire first; venues vary.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
Chicago Fire
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
Vancouver Whitecaps
Most-used league formationPendingNo formation data supplied
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Major League Soccer table
Current standings · Western Conference. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 59 | 26 | 33 | 50 | DWLWL |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 47 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 50 | 42 | 8 | 47 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 44 | LDLWD |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 41 | LDLWD |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 36 | LDWDL |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 36 | WWDLW |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 35 | WWDDD |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 32 | LLLDW |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 32 | WLLLL |
| 12 |  San Diego | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 | DDLLL |
| 13 |  Austin | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 31 | DDWDD |
| 14 |  Minnesota United FC | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 29 | LLLLL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 31 | 63 | -32 | 21 | WLWLL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Chicago Fire | Draw | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 2.80 | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 4.00 | 2.15 |
| Pinnacle | 2.83 | 3.87 | 2.28 |
| SBO | 2.64 | 3.39 | 2.10 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
Snapshot from 1 Oct 2026, 21:01 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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