ClaudinhoMuscle Injury
Reported out
Serie AMatchweek 28THE MATCH CENTREAtletico Paranaense vs Bahia match centre
Full time
2:1
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
Lucas Esquivel16′
jorge rivaldo69′
erick pulga26′
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Out of date · Calculated 20 Sep 18:56 UK.
Odds updated 20 Sep 21:05 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 9 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
Atletico ParanaenseBahia
—Expected goals · API-Football—
6Shots on target3
11Total Shots10
60%Ball Possession40%
6Corner Kicks3
8Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Goalkeeper Saves4
488Total passes505
426Passes accurate447
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
Atletico Paranaense 4 reported
Joao CruzYellow Cards
Reported out
Leo DerikThigh Injury
Reported out
K. ViverosYellow Cards
Reported out
Bahia 3 reported
Leo VieiraKnee Injury
Reported out
C. OliveraYellow Cards
Reported out
M. SanabriaInactive
DoubtfulFetched 20 Sep, 18:30 UK. This report is more than six hours old. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Atletico Paranaense
4/10Wins
1.7Goals / game
1.6Conceded / game
Keep in view: 2 losses in that sample. At home, 5 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Atletico Paranaense’s resultsBahia
4/10Wins
1.5Goals / game
1.2Conceded / game
Keep in view: 1 loss in that sample. At away venues, 2 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Bahia’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
Atletico Paranaense
10 matchesResults4 wins · 4 draws · 2 losses
Goals scored per game1.7
Goals conceded per game1.6
Games with 3+ goals5 of 10
Both teams scored5 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
Bahia
10 matchesResults4 wins · 5 draws · 1 losses
Goals scored per game1.5
Goals conceded per game1.2
Games with 3+ goals4 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Atletico Paranaense at home with Bahia away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 08:18 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Serie A · 2026/27 · all league matches
Atletico ParanaenseBahia
27Matches played27
46Points earned46
13Wins12
1.5Goals scored / match1.6
1.1Goals conceded / match1.2
8Clean sheets8
6Failed to score3
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Atletico Paranaense at home with Bahia away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
4 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Atletico Paranaense
0wins4MEETINGS
Bahia
2winsNov 2023 – Apr 2026 · Past results, not a forecast.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
Atletico Paranaense
Confirmed formation3-4-2-1Odair Hellmann
- 1
MycaelG - 25
DantasD - 33
J. AguirreD - 4
Arthur DiasD - 12
GilbertoM - 16
JádsonM - 14
Luiz GustavoM - 37
L. EsquivelM - 21
LeozinhoM - 7
S. MendozaM - 18
K. VargasF
Substitutes (12)
53 · Dudu
23 · Santos
22 · C. Terán
47 · Chiqueti
5 · Felipinho
10 · B. Zapelli
2 · Gilberto
3 · Léo
6 · Derik
27 · J. Portilla
70 · Renan
19 · Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto
Bahia
Confirmed formation4-3-3Rogério Ceni
- 1
RonaldoG - 44
Marcos VictorD - 33
David DuarteD - 4
KanuD - 46
Luciano JubaD - 14
ErickM - 5
N. AcevedoM - 11
Rodrigo NestorM - 7
AdemirF - 9
A. VélizF - 16
Erick PulgaF
Substitutes (12)
10 · Éverton Ribeiro
31 · Roman Gomez
17 · G. Herrera
6 · Jean Lucas
57 · Çağatay Yılmaz
3 · Marco Moreno
77 · Ruan Pablo
23 · M. Sanabria
12 · Willian José
66 · Zé Guilherme
8 · Caio Alexandre
27 · Everaldo
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Aguirre | 45 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Mycael | 90 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 |
| B. Zapelli | 11 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| C. Terán | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Santos | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto | 45 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Renan | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J. Portilla | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derik | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Léo | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gilberto | 10 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Felipinho | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chiqueti | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| S. Mendoza | 90 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Luiz Gustavo | 90 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0 |
| Leozinho | 45 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jádson | 90 | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 1 |
| Gilberto | 80 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 0 |
| L. Esquivel | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 63 | 4 |
| Dantas | 90 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 53 | 0 |
| K. Vargas | 79 | 8.1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Arthur Dias | 90 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 4 |
| Dudu | 45 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Bahia
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everaldo | 5 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Éverton Ribeiro | 5 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| Roman Gomez | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| G. Herrera | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jean Lucas | 26 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
| Çağatay Yılmaz | 26 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| Marco Moreno | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ruan Pablo | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| M. Sanabria | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willian José | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zé Guilherme | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caio Alexandre | 17 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 |
| A. Véliz | 85 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Rodrigo Nestor | 85 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 42 | 2 |
| N. Acevedo | 73 | 5.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 3 |
| Marcos Victor | 90 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 4 |
| Luciano Juba | 90 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 2 |
| Kanu | 90 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 1 |
| Erick Pulga | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Erick | 64 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 2 |
| David Duarte | 90 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 1 |
| Ademir | 64 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
| Ronaldo | 90 | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0 |
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Serie A table
Current standings · Serie A. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55 | 23 | 32 | 60 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47 | 21 | 26 | 57 | DWDDW |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 49 | WDLDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 48 | WLWDW |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 46 | LWWWW |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 45 | WLWLW |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 40 | DWLWD |
| 8 |  Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 40 | 1 | 38 | WWWWD |
| 9 |  Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 38 | LDLWW |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 36 | LDLLW |
| 11 |  Sao Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 36 | WLWWL |
| 12 |  Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 35 | LWDDL |
| 13 |  Vitoria | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 | LDWLL |
| 14 |  Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 32 | LLLLL |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 | WDWLD |
| 16 |  Vasco DA Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 31 | WWLWL |
| 17 |  Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 | DLLLW |
| 18 |  Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 | LWLLD |
| 19 |  Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 23 | LLLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 18 | DLWLW |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | Atletico Paranaense | Draw | Bahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.23 | 3.26 | 3.12 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
Snapshot from 20 Sep 2026, 21:05 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
PUT YOUR VIEW TO THE TEST
Open practice slip +Try it with virtual funds
Start with £1,000 virtual funds. Choose a single or combine different matches in an accumulator, then track confirmed results. No real money. Record an actual bet in your manual journal ↗
Football data. A clearer perspective.Back to matches →