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Serie AMatchweek 28THE MATCH CENTRE

Sao Paulo vs Internacional match centre

Sao Paulo badgeSao PauloHome · 11 in league
WLLD
Momentum↘ Falling29/100OlderLatest
Full time
1:0
UK time · Europe/London
Internacional badgeInternacionalAway · 18 in league
LLLW
Momentum↗ Rising31/100OlderLatest
Goalscorers
Jonathan Calleri15′ (pen)
Morumbi · Sao PauloSeason 2026/27Back to matches
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES

Our view of the game

Awaiting usable data

Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.

No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.

This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.

Why this selection? Data checks & method

Our model: Out of date · Calculated 19 Sep 22:03 UK.

Odds updated Not supplied · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 0 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.

We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.

For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.

Odds & probabilities Pre-match snapshot Home win1.95Our model 49.5%Market 48.6% Draw3.20Our model 26.6%Market 29.6% Away win4.33Our model 23.9%Market 21.9% Bet365 · Updated 20 Sep 01:01 UK · Older than 24 hours Market probabilities adjusted for margin. Model estimates, not guarantees.
THE FINAL WHISTLE

The match in numbers

Statistics and key moments from this match.

FULL TIME
Sao PauloInternacional
3Corner Kicks3
15Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Goalkeeper Saves0
393Total passes487
317Passes accurate422

— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.

BEFORE YOU DECIDE

Team news & availability

API-Football

Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.

Sao Paulo 5 reported

D. BobadillaInactive
Reported out
Lucas MouraAchilles Tendon Injury
Reported out
Lucca MarquesJaw injury
Reported out
Luis OsorioRed Card
Reported out
Pablo MaiaYellow Cards
Reported out

Internacional 6 reported

B. ArhinHamstring Injury
Reported out
CalebeInactive
Reported out
KaykyAnkle Injury
Reported out
S. RochetLower Back Injury
Reported out
Victor GabrielRed Card
Reported out
R. VillagraYellow Cards
Reported out

Fetched 19 Sep, 20:54 UK. This report is more than six hours old. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.

THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT

Your match briefing

From recorded results

Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.

HOME PERSPECTIVE

Sao Paulo

3/10Wins
1.1Goals / game
1.1Conceded / game

Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At home, 4 wins from 10 available matches.

Inspect Sao Paulo’s results
AWAY PERSPECTIVE

Internacional

2/10Wins
1.1Goals / game
1.3Conceded / game

Keep in view: 4 losses in that sample. At away venues, 1 wins from 10 available matches.

Inspect Internacional’s results
BEFORE YOU DECIDE

What could change the picture?

  • Lineup data is available in the match centre.
  • Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
  • Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.

Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓

HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING

Recent form

Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.

Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.

About these numbers

Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare Sao Paulo at home with Internacional away.

We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.

Updated 2 Oct, 03:51 UK.

THE SEASON SO FAR

How the teams compare

Serie A · 2026/27 · all league matches

Sao PauloInternacional
26Matches played27
33Points earned28
9Wins6
1.2Goals scored / match1.1
1.2Goals conceded / match1.3
5Clean sheets6
6Failed to score8

Season totals and averages. Home / away compares Sao Paulo at home with Internacional away. Small samples can be misleading.

THE STORY SO FAR

Head-to-head

4 recorded meetings

Sao Paulo

2wins
1 draw

Internacional

1wins

Sep 2024 – Apr 2026 · Past results, not a forecast.

TEAM SELECTION

Lineups & formations

Confirmed lineups

Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.

Sao Paulo

Confirmed formation3-4-2-1Dorival Júnior
  1. 23RafaelG
  2. 2R. TolóiD
  3. 5R. ArboledaD
  4. 22Domingos DuarteD
  5. 32Pedro LimaM
  6. 48D. FerreiraM
  7. 8Marcos AntônioM
  8. 12IagoM
  9. 37ArturM
  10. 10LucianoM
  11. 9J. CalleriF
Substitutes (12)

17 · André Silva

18 · Wendell

27 · Victor Sá

43 · G. Santana

35 · Sabino

49 · Ryan Francisco

46 · Pedro Ferreira

31 · Carlos Coronel

80 · Cauly

94 · Danielzinho

11 · Ferreira

19 · Lucas Ramon

Internacional

Confirmed formation3-4-2-1P. Pezzolano
  1. 12AnthoniG
  2. 15Bruno GomesD
  3. 3G. MaripánD
  4. 25G. MercadoD
  5. 28VitinhoM
  6. 8Bruno HenriqueM
  7. 27PaulinhoM
  8. 6Matheus BahiaM
  9. 7J. CarboneroM
  10. 26A. BernabéiM
  11. 10Alan PatrickF
Substitutes (11)

4 · F. Torres

35 · B. Aguirre

9 · Alerrandro

31 · Allex

17 · N. Eliasson

44 · Victor Joao

18 · Juninho

16 · Ronaldo

19 · A. Sanabria

29 · Thiago Maia

24 · Filipe Borba Sirio

INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE

Player statistics

This match

Internacional

PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsPassesTackles
Anthoni905.9000290
Vitinho706.1001351
Paulinho796.6000484
G. Mercado906.6001551
Matheus Bahia466.3000163
G. Maripán906.7000391
J. Carbonero886.2000190
Bruno Henrique466.3000270
Bruno Gomes906.9002650
A. Bernabéi906.7002520
Alan Patrick906.0003320
F. Torres00.000000
B. Aguirre206.500191
Alerrandro00.000000
Allex446.3002170
N. Eliasson25.800010
Victor Joao00.000000
Juninho00.000000
Ronaldo00.000000
A. Sanabria116.400030
Thiago Maia446.8001471
Filipe Borba Sirio00.000000

Sao Paulo

PlayerMinRatingGoalsAssistsShotsPassesTackles
Rafael906.6000360
R. Tolói907.1000411
R. Arboleda907.0000381
Pedro Lima736.7000281
Marcos Antônio906.5000652
Luciano646.3001131
J. Calleri736.8101140
Iago906.3000310
Domingos Duarte396.6001180
D. Ferreira906.7001385
Artur736.4002281
André Silva176.500060
Wendell00.000000
Victor Sá00.000000
G. Santana00.000000
Sabino516.900092
Ryan Francisco00.000000
Pedro Ferreira00.000000
Carlos Coronel00.000000
Cauly00.000000
Danielzinho266.1000160
Ferreira176.200090
Lucas Ramon176.900071
2026/27 STANDINGS

Serie A table

League centre ↗

Current standings · Serie A. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Flamengo28186455233260
WWWWW
2Palmeiras28169347212657
DWDDW
3Atletico Paranaense28147743321149
WDLDW
4Fluminense2813964436848
WLWDW
5Bahia28121064335846
LWWWW
6Cruzeiro2813694240245
WLWLW
7Atletico-MG2711793632440
DWLWD
8Santos2710894140138
WWWWD
9Coritiba28108103743-638
LDLWW
10RB Bragantino27106113331236
LDLLW
11Sao Paulo27106113230236
WLWWL
12Botafogo2898114145-435
LWDDL
13Vitoria2896132842-1433
LDWLL
14Corinthians2888122932-332
LLLLL
15Mirassol2888123342-932
WDWLD
16Vasco DA Gama2787123441-731
WWLWL
17Gremio2878133038-829
DLLLW
18Internacional28610123036-628
LWLLD
19Remo2858153247-1523
LLLLL
20Chapecoense-sc2739152953-2418
DLWLW
THE MARKET VIEW

Match-winner odds

Decimal · 90 minutes
BookmakerSao PauloDrawInternacional
William Hill1.953.104.00
Bet3651.953.204.33
Marathonbet1.933.204.10
Betfair1.903.004.10
BetVictor1.953.254.00

Snapshot from 20 Sep 2026, 01:01 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.

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