Likeliest match result
FC OSS to win40.1% model estimate
Stored odds 2.26 · Pinnacle
Eerste DivisieMatchweek 9THE MATCH CENTREFC OSS vs MVV match centre
Pre-match
15:30
UK time · Europe/LondonTHE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Kickoff Edge modelOur view of the game
A likely outcome and a good betting price are separate decisions.
No recommendation — prices need checking
Either team to win (no draw)
Likelihood guide only: the strongest available selection at odds of at least 1.25, or the likeliest match result when prices are missing. It does not qualify as a value recommendation.
Model chance73.5%
Best stored price1.30William Hill
Prices need refreshing or checking with the bookmaker before a betting decision. Value-filter price: 1.54 or better. No current price qualifies for a recommendation under this filter.
Break-even at this price: 76.9%. Estimated model return: -4.4% per unit staked, before model error.
Explore this lean in practice → Review the latest price before recording a virtual pick.
Goals forecast
Under 2.5 goals52.6% model estimate
Stored odds 2.20 · Betfair
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes52.2% model estimate
Stored odds 1.57 · Betfair
Double chance
Either team to win (no draw)73.5% model estimate
Stored odds 1.30 · William Hill
Projected goals
2.57 total · FC OSS 1.35 · MVV 1.21
Expected averages from the stored goal model, not a promised score.Most likely scorelines
1–1 12.6%1–0 10.4%0–1 9.3%
Home–away · individual scores remain uncertain.View this saved decision and its original price →
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Available · Calculated 2 Oct 06:40 UK.
Odds updated 2 Oct 04:22 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 8 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Reported absences can change the picture. Check confirmed lineups before kickoff. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
FC OSS 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
MVV 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Fetched 2 Oct, 04:34 UK. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
A SECOND MODEL VIEW
Pre-match onlyCompare the forecasts
Two separately generated forecasts. Agreement is not proof of accuracy; both may use overlapping football data.
Kickoff Edge
Our stored model estimate
Home40.1%
Draw26.5%
Away33.5%
API-Football
Provider model estimate
Home45.0%
Draw45.0%
Away10.0%
Double chance : FC OSS or draw
Fetched 2 Oct, 07:42 UKProvider percentages are shown as supplied, including any 0% or 100% values; those are not guarantees. These are forecasts, not bookmaker prices or live win probabilities. No assumption is made that either model accounts for the injury report above.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Kickoff Edge · xG model leans towards FC OSS (40.1%). The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
FC OSS
2/10Wins
1.3Goals / game
2.4Conceded / game
Keep in view: 8 losses in that sample. At home, 6 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect FC OSS’s resultsMVV
5/10Wins
1.3Goals / game
2.2Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect MVV’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Confirmed lineups are not available on this page yet.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
FC OSS
10 matchesResults2 wins · 0 draws · 8 losses
Goals scored per game1.3
Goals conceded per game2.4
Games with 3+ goals8 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
EmmenAway · Eerste Divisie0–1DordrechtHome · Eerste Divisie3–0VVV VenloAway · Eerste Divisie1–3VitesseAway · Eerste Divisie1–2Jong UtrechtHome · Eerste Divisie2–1Jong PSV U21Away · Eerste Divisie0–1FC VolendamAway · Eerste Divisie0–3NAC BredaHome · Eerste Divisie1–2GenkAway · Friendlies Clubs1–3Almere City FCAway · Friendlies Clubs4–8
MVV
10 matchesResults5 wins · 2 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.3
Goals conceded per game2.2
Games with 3+ goals6 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Helmond SportHome · Eerste Divisie2–0WaalwijkAway · Eerste Divisie1–6Almere City FCHome · Eerste Divisie0–4RodaHome · Eerste Divisie1–1Jong AZAway · Eerste Divisie2–1KRC Genk IIAway · Friendlies Clubs0–6FC VolendamHome · Eerste Divisie1–0FC EindhovenAway · Eerste Divisie3–2Jong UtrechtHome · Eerste Divisie2–1Patro EisdenHome · Friendlies Clubs1–1
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare FC OSS at home with MVV away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 08:00 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
Eerste Divisie · 2026/27 · all league matches
FC OSSMVV
7Matches played7
6Points earned13
2Wins4
1.1Goals scored / match1.4
1.7Goals conceded / match2.1
1Clean sheets1
2Failed to score1
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares FC OSS at home with MVV away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
0 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
Previous meetings are not available for this fixture yet.
TEAM SELECTION
Awaiting lineupsLineups & formations
Official XIs are normally published around 20–60 minutes before kickoff. We check again automatically once that window opens.
FC OSS
Most-used league formation4-3-36 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
MVV
Most-used league formation4-3-34 matches this season
Starting XI not confirmed. The formation above is a season trend, not a predicted lineup.
2026/27 STANDINGS
League centre ↗Eerste Divisie table
Current standings · Eerste Divisie: Regular season. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 21 | WLWWW |
| 2 |  Almere City FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 16 | LWWLW |
| 3 | MVV | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 16 | WLLDW |
| 4 |  VVV Venlo | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 15 | LWWLW |
| 5 |  Roda | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 15 | WDWDD |
| 6 |  Emmen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 15 | WLLWL |
| 7 |  Waalwijk | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 8 |  Vitesse | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 13 | LWLWW |
| 9 |  NAC Breda | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 13 | WWLLD |
| 10 |  Jong AZ | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 13 | WDLWW |
| 11 |  FC Volendam | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 12 |  Jong PSV U21 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 | LDLWD |
| 13 |  FC Eindhoven | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 10 | LWWDL |
| 14 |  Helmond Sport | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 8 | LLWWL |
| 15 |  Jong Ajax | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 | DLLWD |
| 16 |  Den Bosch | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 7 | LWLLL |
| 17 |  Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 7 | WLLLL |
| 18 |  De Graafschap | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 7 | WLWLL |
| 19 |  Jong Utrecht | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 7 | LWWDL |
| 20 | FC OSS | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | LWLLW |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | FC OSS | Draw | MVV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 2.22 | 3.46 | 2.88 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.75 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.26 | 3.49 | 2.96 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
Snapshot from 2 Oct 2026, 04:22 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
PUT YOUR VIEW TO THE TEST
Open practice slip +Try it with virtual funds
Start with £1,000 virtual funds. Choose a single or combine different matches in an accumulator, then track confirmed results. No real money. Record an actual bet in your manual journal ↗
Football data. A clearer perspective.Back to matches →