V-varen Nagasaki
4/10Wins
1.5Goals / game
1.9Conceded / game
Keep in view: 5 losses in that sample. At home, 4 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect V-varen Nagasaki’s results
J1 LeagueMatchweek 8THE MATCH CENTREV-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka match centre
Full time
1:1
UK time · Europe/London Goalscorers
Matheus Jesus34′
Lucas Fernandes51′ (pen)
THE MATCH VERDICT · 90 MINUTES
Awaiting usable dataOur view of the game
Pre-match analysis only. No current bet recommendation once kickoff has passed or the match is not scheduled.
No defensible selection yet. We need a current, usable model or a complete recent match-winner market. Check the team news and recent form below.
This exact data version has not yet been captured by the scheduled decision recorder.
Why this selection? Data checks & method
Our model: Out of date · Calculated 19 Sep 10:18 UK.
Odds updated 19 Sep 06:43 UK · Older or incompletely timed snapshot. Match-winner reference: 9 bookmakers. Market probabilities remove each bookmaker’s margin before averaging; double chance combines match-result probabilities.
We compare match winner, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and double chance. Priced selections need decimal odds of at least 1.25. The value filter subtracts five percentage points from the model chance, then requires at least a 5% estimated return. These are conservative policy choices, not a calibrated confidence interval or proof of profitability.
For value candidates, odds must have been observed within 30 minutes and updated within three hours; our model must be less than 24 hours old. Experimental form models never qualify as value recommendations. Market fallback views use snapshots up to 24 hours old and never qualify as model value. Confirm lineups and the available price. All views cover 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No outcome or return is guaranteed.
THE FINAL WHISTLE
FULL TIMEThe match in numbers
Statistics and key moments from this match.
V-varen NagasakiCerezo Osaka
—Expected goals · API-Football—
1Shots on target6
14Total Shots17
44%Ball Possession56%
7Corner Kicks4
10Fouls9
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
5Goalkeeper Saves0
371Total passes476
304Passes accurate387
— means not supplied. Live xG availability varies by match. Verified post-match xG is shown separately in the Chance quality section when available.
BEFORE YOU DECIDE
API-FootballTeam news & availability
Recorded availability for this fixture. These reports are not a confirmed starting XI.
V-varen Nagasaki 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Cerezo Osaka 0 reported
No absences returned for this team. This does not confirm a fully fit squad.
Fetched 18 Sep, 22:10 UK. This report is more than six hours old. Includes injuries and other availability reasons supplied by the provider. Player importance and replacement quality require context; these reports do not automatically adjust the Kickoff Edge forecast.
THE EVIDENCE, IN CONTEXT
From recorded resultsYour match briefing
Compare the evidence for both teams before drawing a conclusion. The context below uses up to 10 completed matches before this fixture, within the available last 365 days.
Cerezo Osaka
6/10Wins
1.1Goals / game
1.2Conceded / game
Keep in view: 3 losses in that sample. At away venues, 3 wins from 10 available matches.
Inspect Cerezo Osaka’s resultsWhat could change the picture?
- Lineup data is available in the match centre.
- Recent results include different opponents and competitions.
- Goals and results describe past outcomes; they do not measure chance quality or guarantee the next result.
Historical context reconstructed from results currently stored, not an archived pre-match briefing. These facts provide context, not a full explanation of the model’s calculation. How this is calculated ↓
HOW THEY HAVE BEEN PLAYING
Recent form
Compare recent results at a glance, or open the match list for a closer look.
Last 10 games · all venues and competitions.
V-varen Nagasaki
10 matchesResults4 wins · 1 draws · 5 losses
Goals scored per game1.5
Goals conceded per game1.9
Games with 3+ goals7 of 10
Both teams scored6 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Nagoya GrampusHome · J1 League2–0Kochi UnitedAway · J-League Cup1–0Vissel KobeAway · J1 League1–3Gamba OsakaHome · J1 League2–2FC TokyoHome · J1 League0–3Ehime FCHome · Emperor Cup3–2Kashiwa ReysolAway · J1 League2–4Fagiano OkayamaAway · J1 League0–1Kyoto SangaHome · J1 League2–1UtrechtAway · Friendlies Clubs2–3
Cerezo Osaka
10 matchesResults6 wins · 1 draws · 3 losses
Goals scored per game1.1
Goals conceded per game1.2
Games with 3+ goals4 of 10
Both teams scored3 of 10
Past results, not predictions.
See results
Sanfrecce HiroshimaAway · J1 League1–6Tokyo VerdyHome · J1 League0–0Kashiwa ReysolHome · J1 League2–0Vissel KobeAway · J1 League0–1FC GifuHome · Emperor Cup3–1Shimizu S-pulseHome · J1 League1–0Avispa FukuokaAway · J1 League0–3Fagiano OkayamaHome · J1 League2–1Borussia DortmundHome · Friendlies Clubs1–0Tochigi CityHome · Friendlies Clubs1–0
About these numbers
Results are from completed 90-minute games before this fixture, across all competitions. Games decided after extra time or penalties are excluded. Switch on “Match home & away form” to compare V-varen Nagasaki at home with Cerezo Osaka away.
We show up to the selected number of available games from the previous year. Missing results may appear as the database updates. These are past results, not predictions.
Updated 2 Oct, 03:44 UK.
THE SEASON SO FAR
How the teams compare
J1 League · 2027/28 · all league matches
V-varen NagasakiCerezo Osaka
7Matches played7
7Points earned10
2Wins3
1.3Goals scored / match0.9
2.0Goals conceded / match1.6
1Clean sheets3
2Failed to score3
Season totals and averages. Home / away compares V-varen Nagasaki at home with Cerezo Osaka away. Small samples can be misleading.
THE STORY SO FAR
4 recorded meetingsHead-to-head
V-varen Nagasaki
1wins4MEETINGS
Cerezo Osaka
3winsMay 2018 – May 2026 · Past results, not a forecast.
Scores shown with V-varen Nagasaki first; venues vary.
TEAM SELECTION
Confirmed lineupsLineups & formations
Official starting XIs supplied by the match-data provider.
V-varen Nagasaki
Confirmed formation3-4-2-1T. Takagi
- 1
M. GotoG - 50
R. ShindoD - 29
I. AraiD - 6
Y. EgawaD - 23
S. YonedaM - 5
H. YamaguchiM - 24
R. YamadaM - 22
H. OnagaM - 10
Matheus JesusM - 41
M. HasegawaM - 9
Thiago SantanaF
Substitutes (9)
8 · Y. Iwasaki
21 · Diego Pituca
31 · K. Doi
13 · G. Hatano
88 · A. Masuyama
34 · T. Matsumoto
20 · K. Nakamura
19 · T. Sawada
18 · R. Yamasaki
Cerezo Osaka
Confirmed formation3-4-2-1Pablo Machín
- 23
Kosuke NakamuraG - 27
Dion-Johan CoolsD - 44
S. HatanakaD - 4
R. InoueD - 16
H. OkudaM - 10
S. TanakaM - 36
J. IrvineM - 66
A. OhataM - 77
Lucas FernandesM - 28
K. OkazawaM - 9
S. SakuragawaF
Substitutes (8)
2 · T. Nakamura
19 · P. Sabbag
17 · R. Sakata
97 · T. Takahashi
11 · Thiago Andrade
7 · S. Uejo
31 · K. Abe
15 · Javi Hernández
INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE
This matchPlayer statistics
V-varen Nagasaki
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Shindo | 90 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 1 |
| M. Goto | 90 | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 |
| R. Yamasaki | 8 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| T. Sawada | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| K. Nakamura | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T. Matsumoto | 17 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| A. Masuyama | 32 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| G. Hatano | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| K. Doi | 7 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Diego Pituca | 32 | 7.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 2 |
| Thiago Santana | 73 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Matheus Jesus | 82 | 8.2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| M. Hasegawa | 90 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 0 |
| S. Yoneda | 58 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| H. Yamaguchi | 90 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 2 |
| R. Yamada | 58 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 0 |
| I. Arai | 83 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| H. Onaga | 90 | 6.9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 3 |
| Y. Iwasaki | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Y. Egawa | 90 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 1 |
Cerezo Osaka
| Player | Min | Rating | Goals | Assists | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Sakuragawa | 90 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| K. Abe | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T. Nakamura | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| P. Sabbag | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| R. Sakata | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T. Takahashi | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thiago Andrade | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| S. Uejo | 2 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| K. Okazawa | 88 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 2 |
| Lucas Fernandes | 77 | 7.6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| A. Ohata | 90 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 2 |
| S. Tanaka | 90 | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 71 | 2 |
| J. Irvine | 90 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 57 | 3 |
| H. Okuda | 90 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 1 |
| R. Inoue | 90 | 7.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 2 |
| S. Hatanaka | 17 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 |
| Dion-Johan Cools | 90 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 57 | 0 |
| Kosuke Nakamura | 90 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 0 |
| Javi Hernández | 73 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 0 |
2027/28 STANDINGS
League centre ↗J1 League table
Current standings · J-League. Both teams are highlighted. These may include matches played after this fixture.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vissel Kobe | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 19 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 18 | WWLLW |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 17 | WWLWD |
| 4 |  Machida Zelvia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 17 | LDWWD |
| 5 |  FC Tokyo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 17 | WWWDW |
| 6 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 14 | WDWDL |
| 7 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 13 | DWWLW |
| 8 |  Kashima | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 13 | DLLLW |
| 9 |  Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 13 | LWWWL |
| 10 |  Urawa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 12 | WLWWW |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 11 | DLDWL |
| 12 |  Shimizu S-pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 10 | WWLDL |
| 13 |  Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 | LLDWD |
| 14 |  Kyoto Sanga | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 | WLLDW |
| 15 | V-varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 | DWLDL |
| 16 |  Gamba Osaka | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 | LLLDD |
| 17 |  Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 | LLLLW |
| 18 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4 | LLDLL |
| 19 |  Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 | LDDLL |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 | LDWLL |
THE MARKET VIEW
Decimal · 90 minutesMatch-winner odds
| Bookmaker | V-varen Nagasaki | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| Marathonbet | 3.30 | 3.46 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
Snapshot from 19 Sep 2026, 06:43 UK. Prices may change and availability varies. Displayed for comparison only.
AWAITING DATA
Information not yet supplied
These sections are kept at the end so the available match analysis appears first.
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