MATCH ANALYSIS

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DateCompetitionMarketMinimum estimate

← Previous daySunday, 4 October 2026Next day →

About these probabilities and odds

Kickoff Edge combines recorded expected goals (xG) with opponent-adjusted team strengths. The xG model blends the recent xG signal and v3 equally, using up to ten previous matches per team, weighted toward recent performances. Both teams need at least five xG matches within six months. Where xG is unavailable, the labelled team-strength model remains in use, with recent-form fallback for limited competition history. Experimental recent-form fallbacks remain research only and are excluded from probability and value recommendation filters. Missing xG is never treated as zero. Competitive cup matches between verified domestic divisions also adjust team strength for the division gap, using earlier league appearances. The initial map covers 37 leagues in eight national pyramids; unknown or cross-country tiers are not guessed. All markets share one score distribution. These are pre-match estimates, not live forecasts or guaranteed outcomes. Historical testing showed lower overall error on the tested sample, but calibration and future performance remain under review. Odds show the highest stored price for each selection; bookmaker availability and prices can change. Additional xG and multi-source challengers are evaluated separately in the model observatory before public promotion. Bookmaker price movement is recorded from collection onwards; it does not reveal betting volume.

Spain · Segunda División17:30 UK

CastellónVS

AD Ceuta FC

Not Started

Kickoff Edge xG · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home86.3%Odds 1.29

Draw9.5%Odds 6.85

Away4.1%Odds 10.20

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

71.5%

1.40Bet365Snapshot 2 Oct, 01:42

Drifting · 1.36 → 1.40 same bookmaker · observed price change

What would £100 at 1.40 mean?

Potential return £140.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £40.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 71.4%. Model estimate: 71.5%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	86.3%	1.29Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Draw	9.5%	6.851xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Away win	4.1%	10.201xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 0.5 goals	97.5%	1.02Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 0.5 goals	2.5%	21.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 1.5 goals	88.4%	1.12Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 1.5 goals	11.6%	7.00BetVictor 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 2.5 goals	71.5%	1.40Bet365 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 2.5 goals	28.5%	3.10Betfair 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 3.5 goals	50.6%	2.03Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 3.5 goals	49.4%	1.931xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 4.5 goals	31.3%	3.33Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 4.5 goals	68.7%	1.38Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Both teams to score — Yes	42.4%	1.73Bet365 2 Oct, 01:42
Both teams to score — No	57.6%	2.061xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Home or draw	95.9%	1.08Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Away or draw	13.7%	4.001xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Home or away	90.5%	1.13Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Home team to concede	44.4%	—
Away team to concede	95.6%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

Italy · Serie C - Girone C19:30 UK

PotenzaVS

AZ Picerno

Not Started

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home60.8%Odds 1.89

Draw19.5%Odds 3.94

Away19.7%Odds 4.15

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

67.9%

1.93PinnacleSnapshot 2 Oct, 01:30

Price history is building · no earlier change recorded for this bookmaker.

What would £100 at 1.93 mean?

Potential return £193.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £93.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 51.8%. Model estimate: 67.9%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	60.8%	1.89Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Draw	19.5%	3.941xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Away win	19.7%	4.15Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 0.5 goals	97.0%	1.05Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 0.5 goals	3.0%	12.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 1.5 goals	86.4%	1.25Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 1.5 goals	13.6%	3.75Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 2.5 goals	67.9%	1.93Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 2.5 goals	32.1%	1.981xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 3.5 goals	46.3%	3.00Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 3.5 goals	53.7%	1.381xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 4.5 goals	27.4%	5.511xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 4.5 goals	72.6%	1.15Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — Yes	63.4%	1.75William Hill 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — No	36.6%	2.02Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or draw	80.3%	1.25William Hill 2 Oct, 01:30
Away or draw	39.2%	2.05Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or away	80.5%	1.26Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Home team to concede	70.7%	—
Away team to concede	89.7%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

Germany · Regionalliga - Nord13:00 UK

HSC HannoverVS

Schöningen

Not Started

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Away win

Home28.5%Odds —

Draw21.9%Odds —

Away49.7%Odds —

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

66.4%

No stored odds for this selection.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	28.5%	—
Draw	21.9%	—
Away win	49.7%	—
Over 0.5 goals	96.7%	—
Under 0.5 goals	3.3%	—
Over 1.5 goals	85.5%	—
Under 1.5 goals	14.5%	—
Over 2.5 goals	66.4%	—
Under 2.5 goals	33.6%	—
Over 3.5 goals	44.5%	—
Under 3.5 goals	55.5%	—
Over 4.5 goals	25.9%	—
Under 4.5 goals	74.1%	—
Both teams to score — Yes	65.8%	—
Both teams to score — No	34.2%	—
Home or draw	50.3%	—
Away or draw	71.5%	—
Home or away	78.1%	—
Home team to concede	86.0%	—
Away team to concede	76.6%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Price unavailableManual journal →

Germany · Regionalliga - West13:00 UK

Rot-weiss OberhausenVS

Paderborn II

Not Started

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home54.7%Odds —

Draw21.2%Odds —

Away24.1%Odds —

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

65.8%

No stored odds for this selection.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	54.7%	—
Draw	21.2%	—
Away win	24.1%	—
Over 0.5 goals	96.6%	—
Under 0.5 goals	3.4%	—
Over 1.5 goals	85.2%	—
Under 1.5 goals	14.8%	—
Over 2.5 goals	65.8%	—
Under 2.5 goals	34.2%	—
Over 3.5 goals	43.9%	—
Under 3.5 goals	56.1%	—
Over 4.5 goals	25.4%	—
Under 4.5 goals	74.6%	—
Both teams to score — Yes	64.0%	—
Both teams to score — No	36.0%	—
Home or draw	75.9%	—
Away or draw	45.3%	—
Home or away	78.8%	—
Home team to concede	73.3%	—
Away team to concede	87.4%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Price unavailableManual journal →

World · UEFA Nations League17:00 UK

KosovoVS

Austria

Not Started

Experimental fallback · research onlyModel lean: Home win

Home38.3%Odds 3.40

Draw23.4%Odds 4.34

Away38.3%Odds 2.05

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

62.0%

1.861xBetSnapshot 2 Oct, 01:30

Drifting · 1.85 → 1.86 same bookmaker · observed price change

What would £100 at 1.86 mean?

Potential return £186.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £86.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 53.8%. Model estimate: 62.0%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	38.3%	3.40Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Draw	23.4%	4.341xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Away win	38.3%	2.05William Hill 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 0.5 goals	95.9%	1.04Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 0.5 goals	4.1%	13.301xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 1.5 goals	82.9%	1.24Marathonbet 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 1.5 goals	17.1%	4.10Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 2.5 goals	62.0%	1.861xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 2.5 goals	38.0%	2.031xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 3.5 goals	39.7%	3.10Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 3.5 goals	60.3%	1.36Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 4.5 goals	21.9%	6.00Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 4.5 goals	78.1%	1.13Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — Yes	63.7%	1.70Marathonbet 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — No	36.3%	2.15Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or draw	61.7%	1.85Marathonbet 2 Oct, 01:30
Away or draw	61.7%	1.371xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or away	76.6%	1.30William Hill 2 Oct, 01:30
Home team to concede	79.8%	—
Away team to concede	79.8%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

World · UEFA Nations League19:45 UK

NetherlandsVS

Serbia

Not Started

Experimental fallback · research onlyModel lean: Home win

Home68.8%Odds 1.20

Draw18.0%Odds 7.80

Away13.2%Odds 15.50

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

62.0%

1.42BetanoSnapshot 2 Oct, 01:30

Shortening · 1.47 → 1.42 same bookmaker · observed price change

What would £100 at 1.42 mean?

Potential return £142.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £42.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 70.4%. Model estimate: 62.0%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	68.8%	1.20SBO 2 Oct, 01:30
Draw	18.0%	7.80Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Away win	13.2%	15.50Marathonbet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 0.5 goals	95.9%	1.02Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 0.5 goals	4.1%	24.001xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 1.5 goals	82.9%	1.13Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 1.5 goals	17.1%	7.50BetVictor 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 2.5 goals	62.0%	1.42Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 2.5 goals	38.0%	3.04Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 3.5 goals	39.7%	2.021xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 3.5 goals	60.3%	1.871xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 4.5 goals	21.9%	3.25Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 4.5 goals	78.1%	1.36Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — Yes	53.4%	2.07Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — No	46.6%	1.80William Hill 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or draw	86.8%	1.04Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Away or draw	31.2%	5.20Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or away	82.0%	1.11Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Home team to concede	59.3%	—
Away team to concede	90.0%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

World · UEFA Nations League19:45 UK

PortugalVS

Norway

Not Started

Experimental fallback · research onlyModel lean: Home win

Home46.9%Odds 1.79

Draw23.8%Odds 4.51

Away29.4%Odds 4.70

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

57.7%

1.50BetanoSnapshot 2 Oct, 01:30

Shortening · 1.55 → 1.50 same bookmaker · observed price change

What would £100 at 1.50 mean?

Potential return £150.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £50.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 66.7%. Model estimate: 57.7%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	46.9%	1.79SBO 2 Oct, 01:30
Draw	23.8%	4.51Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Away win	29.4%	4.70Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 0.5 goals	95.0%	1.03Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 0.5 goals	5.0%	20.001xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 1.5 goals	80.1%	1.16Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 1.5 goals	19.9%	6.00Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 2.5 goals	57.7%	1.50Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 2.5 goals	42.3%	2.70Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 3.5 goals	35.3%	2.231xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 3.5 goals	64.7%	1.721xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 4.5 goals	18.5%	3.80Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 4.5 goals	81.5%	1.29Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — Yes	59.5%	1.53Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — No	40.5%	2.55Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or draw	70.6%	1.23Marathonbet 2 Oct, 01:30
Away or draw	53.1%	2.27Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or away	76.2%	1.23Marathonbet 2 Oct, 01:30
Home team to concede	72.7%	—
Away team to concede	81.7%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

World · CONCACAF Nations League23:00 UK

Trinidad and TobagoVS

Curaçao

Not Started

Experimental fallback · research onlyModel lean: Away win

Home15.1%Odds —

Draw19.9%Odds —

Away65.0%Odds —

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

57.7%

No stored odds for this selection.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	15.1%	—
Draw	19.9%	—
Away win	65.0%	—
Over 0.5 goals	95.0%	—
Under 0.5 goals	5.0%	—
Over 1.5 goals	80.1%	—
Under 1.5 goals	19.9%	—
Over 2.5 goals	57.7%	—
Under 2.5 goals	42.3%	—
Over 3.5 goals	35.3%	—
Under 3.5 goals	64.7%	—
Over 4.5 goals	18.5%	—
Under 4.5 goals	81.5%	—
Both teams to score — Yes	52.1%	—
Both teams to score — No	47.9%	—
Home or draw	35.0%	—
Away or draw	84.9%	—
Home or away	80.1%	—
Home team to concede	87.8%	—
Away team to concede	59.3%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Price unavailableManual journal →

Germany · Regionalliga - West13:00 UK

Sportfreunde SiegenVS

Borussia Dortmund II

Not Started

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Away win

Home34.4%Odds —

Draw24.5%Odds —

Away41.0%Odds —

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

56.2%

No stored odds for this selection.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	34.4%	—
Draw	24.5%	—
Away win	41.0%	—
Over 0.5 goals	94.7%	—
Under 0.5 goals	5.3%	—
Over 1.5 goals	79.1%	—
Under 1.5 goals	20.9%	—
Over 2.5 goals	56.2%	—
Under 2.5 goals	43.8%	—
Over 3.5 goals	33.8%	—
Under 3.5 goals	66.2%	—
Over 4.5 goals	17.4%	—
Under 4.5 goals	82.6%	—
Both teams to score — Yes	59.1%	—
Both teams to score — No	40.9%	—
Home or draw	59.0%	—
Away or draw	65.6%	—
Home or away	75.5%	—
Home team to concede	78.6%	—
Away team to concede	75.2%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Price unavailableManual journal →

Netherlands · Eerste Divisie13:30 UK

VVV VenloVS

Roda

Not Started

Kickoff Edge xG · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home37.8%Odds 2.42

Draw24.7%Odds 3.80

Away37.5%Odds 2.64

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

55.8%

1.57BetanoSnapshot 2 Oct, 01:33

Drifting · 1.55 → 1.57 same bookmaker · observed price change

What would £100 at 1.57 mean?

Potential return £157.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £57.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 63.7%. Model estimate: 55.8%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	37.8%	2.42Betano 2 Oct, 01:33
Draw	24.7%	3.80Betfair 2 Oct, 01:33
Away win	37.5%	2.64Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:33
Over 0.5 goals	94.6%	1.03Betano 2 Oct, 01:33
Under 0.5 goals	5.4%	17.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:33
Over 1.5 goals	78.8%	1.18Betano 2 Oct, 01:33
Under 1.5 goals	21.2%	5.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:33
Over 2.5 goals	55.8%	1.57Betano 2 Oct, 01:33
Under 2.5 goals	44.2%	2.55Betfair 2 Oct, 01:33
Over 3.5 goals	33.4%	2.35Betano 2 Oct, 01:33
Under 3.5 goals	66.6%	1.58Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:33
Over 4.5 goals	17.1%	4.10BetVictor 2 Oct, 01:33
Under 4.5 goals	82.9%	1.24Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:33
Both teams to score — Yes	58.9%	1.47Betano 2 Oct, 01:33
Both teams to score — No	41.1%	2.62Bet365 2 Oct, 01:33
Home or draw	62.5%	1.52Betano 2 Oct, 01:33
Away or draw	62.2%	1.57Betfair 2 Oct, 01:33
Home or away	75.3%	1.29William Hill 2 Oct, 01:33
Home team to concede	76.6%	—
Away team to concede	76.8%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

Spain · Primera División RFEF - Group 211:00 UK

Villarreal IIVS

Ibiza

Not Started

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home61.7%Odds 1.91

Draw21.2%Odds 3.77

Away17.1%Odds 3.98

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

55.6%

2.00Bet365Snapshot 2 Oct, 01:43

Price history is building · no earlier change recorded for this bookmaker.

What would £100 at 2.00 mean?

Potential return £200.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £100.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 50.0%. Model estimate: 55.6%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	61.7%	1.91Betfair 2 Oct, 01:43
Draw	21.2%	3.771xBet 2 Oct, 01:43
Away win	17.1%	3.981xBet 2 Oct, 01:43
Over 0.5 goals	94.5%	1.03Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Under 0.5 goals	5.5%	10.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Over 1.5 goals	78.7%	1.321xBet 2 Oct, 01:43
Under 1.5 goals	21.3%	3.50Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Over 2.5 goals	55.6%	2.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Under 2.5 goals	44.4%	1.85Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:43
Over 3.5 goals	33.2%	3.40Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Under 3.5 goals	66.8%	1.30Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Over 4.5 goals	17.0%	6.801xBet 2 Oct, 01:43
Under 4.5 goals	83.0%	1.11Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Both teams to score — Yes	52.2%	1.83Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Both teams to score — No	47.8%	1.91William Hill 2 Oct, 01:43
Home or draw	82.9%	1.23Betano 2 Oct, 01:43
Away or draw	38.3%	1.91Betfair 2 Oct, 01:43
Home or away	78.8%	1.30Betfair 2 Oct, 01:43
Home team to concede	60.6%	—
Away team to concede	86.2%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

Spain · Primera División RFEF - Group 111:00 UK

UD LogroñésVS

Deportivo La Coruña II

Not Started

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home50.8%Odds 1.64

Draw23.8%Odds 4.01

Away25.4%Odds 5.78

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

54.9%

2.10Bet365Snapshot 2 Oct, 01:30

Drifting · 1.85 → 2.10 same bookmaker · observed price change

What would £100 at 2.10 mean?

Potential return £210.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £110.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 47.6%. Model estimate: 54.9%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	50.8%	1.641xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Draw	23.8%	4.011xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Away win	25.4%	5.78Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 0.5 goals	94.4%	1.07Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 0.5 goals	5.6%	8.50Marathonbet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 1.5 goals	78.2%	1.33Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 1.5 goals	21.8%	3.25Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 2.5 goals	54.9%	2.10Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 2.5 goals	45.1%	1.801xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 3.5 goals	32.5%	3.75Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 3.5 goals	67.5%	1.39Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 4.5 goals	16.5%	7.20Marathonbet 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 4.5 goals	83.5%	1.09Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — Yes	56.2%	2.20Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — No	43.8%	1.721xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or draw	74.6%	1.13Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Away or draw	49.2%	2.30Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or away	76.2%	1.30William Hill 2 Oct, 01:30
Home team to concede	68.4%	—
Away team to concede	82.2%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

World · Friendlies19:00 UK

MoroccoVS

Ghana

Match Cancelled

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home58.9%Odds —

Draw22.1%Odds —

Away19.0%Odds —

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

54.6%

No stored odds for this selection.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	58.9%	—
Draw	22.1%	—
Away win	19.0%	—
Over 0.5 goals	94.3%	—
Under 0.5 goals	5.7%	—
Over 1.5 goals	78.0%	—
Under 1.5 goals	22.0%	—
Over 2.5 goals	54.6%	—
Under 2.5 goals	45.4%	—
Over 3.5 goals	32.3%	—
Under 3.5 goals	67.7%	—
Over 4.5 goals	16.3%	—
Under 4.5 goals	83.7%	—
Both teams to score — Yes	52.9%	—
Both teams to score — No	47.1%	—
Home or draw	81.0%	—
Away or draw	41.1%	—
Home or away	77.9%	—
Home team to concede	62.2%	—
Away team to concede	84.9%	—

Calculated 1 Oct, 01:20 UKMatch centre →

Research only · selections closedManual journal →

Spain · Primera División RFEF - Group 115:30 UK

ZamoraVS

CD Coria

Not Started

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home46.1%Odds 1.70

Draw24.9%Odds 4.25

Away29.0%Odds 5.00

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

52.4%

1.791xBetSnapshot 2 Oct, 01:30

Shortening · 2.05 → 1.79 same bookmaker · observed price change

What would £100 at 1.79 mean?

Potential return £179.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £79.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 55.9%. Model estimate: 52.4%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	46.1%	1.70Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Draw	24.9%	4.251xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Away win	29.0%	5.00Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 0.5 goals	93.7%	1.05Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 0.5 goals	6.3%	9.00Marathonbet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 1.5 goals	76.4%	1.24Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 1.5 goals	23.6%	4.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 2.5 goals	52.4%	1.791xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 2.5 goals	47.6%	2.05Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 3.5 goals	30.2%	2.96Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 3.5 goals	69.8%	1.40Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 4.5 goals	14.8%	5.271xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 4.5 goals	85.2%	1.14Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — Yes	55.4%	1.80Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — No	44.6%	2.00William Hill 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or draw	71.0%	1.17William Hill 2 Oct, 01:30
Away or draw	53.9%	2.12Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or away	75.1%	1.25William Hill 2 Oct, 01:30
Home team to concede	69.8%	—
Away team to concede	79.3%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

Spain · Primera División RFEF - Group 211:00 UK

Real MurciaVS

Gimnastic

Not Started

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home52.9%Odds 1.80

Draw23.9%Odds 3.98

Away23.2%Odds 4.60

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

52.3%

2.05Bet365Snapshot 2 Oct, 01:43

Price history is building · no earlier change recorded for this bookmaker.

What would £100 at 2.05 mean?

Potential return £205.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £105.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 48.8%. Model estimate: 52.3%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	52.9%	1.80Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Draw	23.9%	3.981xBet 2 Oct, 01:43
Away win	23.2%	4.60Betfair 2 Oct, 01:43
Over 0.5 goals	93.7%	1.04Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Under 0.5 goals	6.3%	9.20Marathonbet 2 Oct, 01:43
Over 1.5 goals	76.3%	1.33Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Under 1.5 goals	23.7%	3.421xBet 2 Oct, 01:43
Over 2.5 goals	52.3%	2.05Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Under 2.5 goals	47.7%	1.911xBet 2 Oct, 01:43
Over 3.5 goals	30.1%	3.50Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Under 3.5 goals	69.9%	1.341xBet 2 Oct, 01:43
Over 4.5 goals	14.7%	6.50Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Under 4.5 goals	85.3%	1.10Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Both teams to score — Yes	53.4%	1.83Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Both teams to score — No	46.6%	1.91William Hill 2 Oct, 01:43
Home or draw	76.8%	1.19Betano 2 Oct, 01:43
Away or draw	47.1%	2.00Betfair 2 Oct, 01:43
Home or away	76.1%	1.27Betano 2 Oct, 01:43
Home team to concede	65.1%	—
Away team to concede	82.0%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

World · UEFA Nations League19:45 UK

WalesVS

Denmark

Not Started

Experimental fallback · research onlyModel lean: Away win

Home30.4%Odds 4.10

Draw25.5%Odds 3.79

Away44.1%Odds 1.93

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

50.6%

1.791xBetSnapshot 2 Oct, 01:30

Drifting · 1.77 → 1.79 same bookmaker · observed price change

What would £100 at 1.79 mean?

Potential return £179.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £79.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 55.9%. Model estimate: 50.6%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	30.4%	4.101xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Draw	25.5%	3.791xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Away win	44.1%	1.93Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 0.5 goals	93.3%	1.05Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 0.5 goals	6.7%	13.00Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 1.5 goals	75.1%	1.25Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 1.5 goals	24.9%	4.33Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 2.5 goals	50.6%	1.791xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 2.5 goals	49.4%	2.15Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 3.5 goals	28.6%	2.84Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 3.5 goals	71.4%	1.45Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 4.5 goals	13.7%	5.75BetVictor 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 4.5 goals	86.3%	1.18Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — Yes	54.3%	1.67William Hill 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — No	45.7%	2.20Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or draw	55.9%	2.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Away or draw	69.6%	1.29Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or away	74.5%	1.29Marathonbet 2 Oct, 01:30
Home team to concede	77.7%	—
Away team to concede	69.9%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

Spain · Segunda División13:00 UK

Real Sociedad IIVS

Granada CF

Not Started

Kickoff Edge xG · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home45.6%Odds 2.65

Draw25.4%Odds 3.38

Away29.0%Odds 2.76

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

50.5%

2.00Bet365Snapshot 2 Oct, 01:42

Drifting · 1.95 → 2.00 same bookmaker · observed price change

What would £100 at 2.00 mean?

Potential return £200.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £100.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 50.0%. Model estimate: 50.5%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	45.6%	2.651xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Draw	25.4%	3.381xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Away win	29.0%	2.76Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 0.5 goals	93.2%	1.07Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 0.5 goals	6.8%	10.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 1.5 goals	75.0%	1.32Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 1.5 goals	25.0%	3.53Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 2.5 goals	50.5%	2.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 2.5 goals	49.5%	1.931xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 3.5 goals	28.4%	3.40Bet365 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 3.5 goals	71.6%	1.34Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 4.5 goals	13.6%	7.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 4.5 goals	86.4%	1.13Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Both teams to score — Yes	53.9%	1.73William Hill 2 Oct, 01:42
Both teams to score — No	46.1%	2.091xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Home or draw	71.0%	1.481xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Away or draw	54.4%	1.50William Hill 2 Oct, 01:42
Home or away	74.6%	1.36Bet365 2 Oct, 01:42
Home team to concede	68.8%	—
Away team to concede	78.3%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

World · Friendlies03:00 UK

USAVS

Mexico

Not Started

Kickoff Edge xG · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home50.4%Odds —

Draw24.8%Odds —

Away24.8%Odds —

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

50.0%

No stored odds for this selection.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	50.4%	—
Draw	24.8%	—
Away win	24.8%	—
Over 0.5 goals	93.1%	—
Under 0.5 goals	6.9%	—
Over 1.5 goals	74.6%	—
Under 1.5 goals	25.4%	—
Over 2.5 goals	50.0%	—
Under 2.5 goals	50.0%	—
Over 3.5 goals	28.0%	—
Under 3.5 goals	72.0%	—
Over 4.5 goals	13.3%	—
Under 4.5 goals	86.7%	—
Both teams to score — Yes	52.3%	—
Both teams to score — No	47.7%	—
Home or draw	75.2%	—
Away or draw	49.6%	—
Home or away	75.2%	—
Home team to concede	65.2%	—
Away team to concede	80.1%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Price unavailableManual journal →

Italy · Serie C - Girone B16:30 UK

ReggianaVS

Spezia

Not Started

Kickoff Edge xG · pre-matchModel lean: Away win

Home30.7%Odds 2.67

Draw25.9%Odds 3.63

Away43.5%Odds 2.56

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

49.1%

2.05Bet365Snapshot 2 Oct, 01:30

Price history is building · no earlier change recorded for this bookmaker.

What would £100 at 2.05 mean?

Potential return £205.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £105.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 48.8%. Model estimate: 49.1%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	30.7%	2.67Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Draw	25.9%	3.631xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Away win	43.5%	2.561xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 0.5 goals	92.9%	1.07Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 0.5 goals	7.1%	9.50Marathonbet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 1.5 goals	74.0%	1.33Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 1.5 goals	26.0%	3.321xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 2.5 goals	49.1%	2.05Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 2.5 goals	50.9%	1.88Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 3.5 goals	27.3%	3.50Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 3.5 goals	72.7%	1.321xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 4.5 goals	12.8%	7.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 4.5 goals	87.2%	1.11Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — Yes	53.2%	1.83Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — No	46.8%	2.05William Hill 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or draw	56.5%	1.52Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Away or draw	69.3%	1.45Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or away	74.1%	1.32Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Home team to concede	76.7%	—
Away team to concede	69.3%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

World · Friendlies19:00 UK

EgyptVS

South Africa

Not Started

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home51.9%Odds —

Draw25.0%Odds —

Away23.2%Odds —

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

47.9%

No stored odds for this selection.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	51.9%	—
Draw	25.0%	—
Away win	23.2%	—
Over 0.5 goals	92.5%	—
Under 0.5 goals	7.5%	—
Over 1.5 goals	73.0%	—
Under 1.5 goals	27.0%	—
Over 2.5 goals	47.9%	—
Under 2.5 goals	52.1%	—
Over 3.5 goals	26.1%	—
Under 3.5 goals	73.9%	—
Over 4.5 goals	12.1%	—
Under 4.5 goals	87.9%	—
Both teams to score — Yes	50.0%	—
Both teams to score — No	50.0%	—
Home or draw	76.8%	—
Away or draw	48.1%	—
Home or away	75.0%	—
Home team to concede	62.6%	—
Away team to concede	79.9%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Price unavailableManual journal →

Spain · Primera División RFEF - Group 217:45 UK

AlgecirasVS

Rayo Majadahonda

Not Started

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home43.0%Odds 1.88

Draw26.8%Odds 3.72

Away30.3%Odds 4.45

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

45.4%

2.16PinnacleSnapshot 2 Oct, 01:43

Price history is building · no earlier change recorded for this bookmaker.

What would £100 at 2.16 mean?

Potential return £216.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £116.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 46.3%. Model estimate: 45.4%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	43.0%	1.88Betano 2 Oct, 01:43
Draw	26.8%	3.721xBet 2 Oct, 01:43
Away win	30.3%	4.45Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:43
Over 0.5 goals	91.7%	1.07Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Under 0.5 goals	8.3%	8.801xBet 2 Oct, 01:43
Over 1.5 goals	71.1%	1.36Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Under 1.5 goals	28.9%	3.03Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:43
Over 2.5 goals	45.4%	2.16Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:43
Under 2.5 goals	54.6%	1.751xBet 2 Oct, 01:43
Over 3.5 goals	24.1%	3.75Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Under 3.5 goals	75.9%	1.25Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Over 4.5 goals	10.8%	7.651xBet 2 Oct, 01:43
Under 4.5 goals	89.2%	1.08Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Both teams to score — Yes	50.2%	2.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:43
Both teams to score — No	49.8%	1.761xBet 2 Oct, 01:43
Home or draw	69.7%	1.20Betfair 2 Oct, 01:43
Away or draw	57.0%	1.91Betfair 2 Oct, 01:43
Home or away	73.2%	1.30Betfair 2 Oct, 01:43
Home team to concede	67.1%	—
Away team to concede	74.8%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

Spain · Primera División RFEF - Group 117:45 UK

Mérida ADVS

Cacereño

Not Started

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Away win

Home28.2%Odds 2.12

Draw26.5%Odds 3.78

Away45.3%Odds 3.35

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

45.4%

1.90Bet365Snapshot 2 Oct, 01:30

Shortening · 2.08 → 1.90 same bookmaker · observed price change

What would £100 at 1.90 mean?

Potential return £190.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £90.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 52.6%. Model estimate: 45.4%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	28.2%	2.12Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Draw	26.5%	3.781xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Away win	45.3%	3.35Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 0.5 goals	91.7%	1.05Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 0.5 goals	8.3%	8.70Marathonbet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 1.5 goals	71.1%	1.28Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 1.5 goals	28.9%	3.521xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 2.5 goals	45.4%	1.90Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 2.5 goals	54.6%	1.941xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 3.5 goals	24.0%	3.25Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 3.5 goals	76.0%	1.361xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 4.5 goals	10.8%	5.781xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 4.5 goals	89.2%	1.12Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — Yes	49.8%	1.73Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — No	50.2%	2.011xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or draw	54.7%	1.33Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Away or draw	71.8%	1.73Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or away	73.5%	1.30William Hill 2 Oct, 01:30
Home team to concede	76.0%	—
Away team to concede	65.5%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

Italy · Serie C - Girone B13:30 UK

Campobasso FCVS

Torres

Not Started

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home44.4%Odds 2.20

Draw26.6%Odds 3.81

Away28.9%Odds 3.25

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

45.3%

2.05Bet365Snapshot 2 Oct, 01:30

Price history is building · no earlier change recorded for this bookmaker.

What would £100 at 2.05 mean?

Potential return £205.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £105.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 48.8%. Model estimate: 45.3%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	44.4%	2.20Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Draw	26.6%	3.811xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Away win	28.9%	3.25Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 0.5 goals	91.7%	1.07Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 0.5 goals	8.3%	9.20Marathonbet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 1.5 goals	71.0%	1.33Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 1.5 goals	29.0%	3.641xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 2.5 goals	45.3%	2.05Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 2.5 goals	54.7%	1.991xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 3.5 goals	24.0%	3.50Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 3.5 goals	76.0%	1.42Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 4.5 goals	10.7%	7.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 4.5 goals	89.3%	1.12Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — Yes	49.9%	1.83Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — No	50.1%	2.071xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or draw	71.1%	1.33William Hill 2 Oct, 01:30
Away or draw	55.6%	1.70Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or away	73.4%	1.32Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Home team to concede	66.1%	—
Away team to concede	75.5%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

Italy · Serie C - Girone A16:30 UK

Juventus U23VS

Lumezzane

Not Started

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Away win

Home32.6%Odds 2.11

Draw27.2%Odds 3.25

Away40.2%Odds 3.10

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

44.4%

2.08Bet365Snapshot 1 Oct, 03:15 · Older than 24 hours

Price history is building · no earlier change recorded for this bookmaker.

What would £100 at 2.08 mean?

Potential return £208.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £108.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 48.1%. Model estimate: 44.4%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	32.6%	2.11Marathonbet 1 Oct, 03:15
Draw	27.2%	3.25Betfair 1 Oct, 03:15
Away win	40.2%	3.10Betfair 1 Oct, 03:15
Over 0.5 goals	91.4%	1.05Bet365 1 Oct, 03:15
Under 0.5 goals	8.6%	8.50Bet365 1 Oct, 03:15
Over 1.5 goals	70.3%	1.33Bet365 1 Oct, 03:15
Under 1.5 goals	29.7%	3.25Bet365 1 Oct, 03:15
Over 2.5 goals	44.4%	2.08Bet365 1 Oct, 03:15
Under 2.5 goals	55.6%	1.73Bet365 1 Oct, 03:15
Over 3.5 goals	23.2%	3.75Bet365 1 Oct, 03:15
Under 3.5 goals	76.8%	1.25Bet365 1 Oct, 03:15
Over 4.5 goals	10.2%	7.00Bet365 1 Oct, 03:15
Under 4.5 goals	89.8%	1.08Bet365 1 Oct, 03:15
Both teams to score — Yes	49.7%	1.83Bet365 1 Oct, 03:15
Both teams to score — No	50.3%	1.85Marathonbet 1 Oct, 03:15
Home or draw	59.8%	1.29Betfair 1 Oct, 03:15
Away or draw	67.4%	1.62Betfair 1 Oct, 03:15
Home or away	72.8%	1.29Betfair 1 Oct, 03:15
Home team to concede	72.9%	—
Away team to concede	68.2%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

Spain · Segunda División17:30 UK

Las PalmasVS

Valladolid

Not Started

Kickoff Edge xG · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home49.7%Odds 2.22

Draw26.4%Odds 3.36

Away23.8%Odds 3.55

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

42.9%

2.09SBOSnapshot 2 Oct, 01:42

Price history is building · no earlier change recorded for this bookmaker.

What would £100 at 2.09 mean?

Potential return £209.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £109.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 47.8%. Model estimate: 42.9%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	49.7%	2.221xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Draw	26.4%	3.361xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Away win	23.8%	3.55Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 0.5 goals	90.9%	1.08Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 0.5 goals	9.1%	9.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 1.5 goals	69.1%	1.35Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 1.5 goals	30.9%	3.34Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 2.5 goals	42.9%	2.09SBO 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 2.5 goals	57.1%	1.861xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 3.5 goals	22.1%	3.61Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 3.5 goals	77.9%	1.31Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 4.5 goals	9.5%	8.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 4.5 goals	90.5%	1.11Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Both teams to score — Yes	46.5%	1.85William Hill 2 Oct, 01:42
Both teams to score — No	53.5%	2.011xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Home or draw	76.2%	1.331xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Away or draw	50.3%	1.70Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Home or away	73.6%	1.36Bet365 2 Oct, 01:42
Home team to concede	60.5%	—
Away team to concede	77.0%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

Portugal · Segunda Liga11:00 UK

FarenseVS

Chaves

Not Started

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home48.9%Odds 2.19

Draw26.7%Odds 3.70

Away24.4%Odds 3.30

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

42.5%

1.95Bet365Snapshot 2 Oct, 01:30

Price history is building · no earlier change recorded for this bookmaker.

What would £100 at 1.95 mean?

Potential return £195.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £95.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 51.3%. Model estimate: 42.5%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	48.9%	2.19Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Draw	26.7%	3.701xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Away win	24.4%	3.30Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 0.5 goals	90.7%	1.07Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 0.5 goals	9.3%	10.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 1.5 goals	68.7%	1.32Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 1.5 goals	31.3%	3.50Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 2.5 goals	42.5%	1.95Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 2.5 goals	57.5%	1.891xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 3.5 goals	21.7%	3.32Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 3.5 goals	78.3%	1.33Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 4.5 goals	9.3%	7.00BetVictor 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 4.5 goals	90.7%	1.12Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — Yes	46.4%	1.75Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — No	53.6%	2.011xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or draw	75.6%	1.36Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Away or draw	51.1%	1.70Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or away	73.3%	1.33William Hill 2 Oct, 01:30
Home team to concede	60.8%	—
Away team to concede	76.4%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

World · UEFA Nations League17:00 UK

MaltaVS

Andorra

Not Started

Experimental fallback · research onlyModel lean: Home win

Home59.0%Odds —

Draw24.8%Odds —

Away16.2%Odds —

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

40.4%

No stored odds for this selection.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	59.0%	—
Draw	24.8%	—
Away win	16.2%	—
Over 0.5 goals	90.0%	—
Under 0.5 goals	10.0%	—
Over 1.5 goals	66.9%	—
Under 1.5 goals	33.1%	—
Over 2.5 goals	40.4%	—
Under 2.5 goals	59.6%	—
Over 3.5 goals	20.1%	—
Under 3.5 goals	79.9%	—
Over 4.5 goals	8.4%	—
Under 4.5 goals	91.6%	—
Both teams to score — Yes	40.2%	—
Both teams to score — No	59.8%	—
Home or draw	83.8%	—
Away or draw	41.0%	—
Home or away	75.2%	—
Home team to concede	50.3%	—
Away team to concede	79.8%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Price unavailableManual journal →

World · UEFA Nations League19:45 UK

GreeceVS

Germany

Not Started

Experimental fallback · research onlyModel lean: Home win

Home38.3%Odds 4.10

Draw28.3%Odds 3.90

Away33.4%Odds 1.94

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

40.4%

1.751xBetSnapshot 2 Oct, 01:30

Drifting · 1.74 → 1.75 same bookmaker · observed price change

What would £100 at 1.75 mean?

Potential return £175.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £75.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 57.1%. Model estimate: 40.4%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	38.3%	4.10Bet365 2 Oct, 01:30
Draw	28.3%	3.90Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Away win	33.4%	1.941xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 0.5 goals	90.0%	1.05Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 0.5 goals	10.0%	14.201xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 1.5 goals	66.9%	1.24Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 1.5 goals	33.1%	4.33Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 2.5 goals	40.4%	1.751xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 2.5 goals	59.6%	2.181xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 3.5 goals	20.1%	2.77Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 3.5 goals	79.9%	1.47Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Over 4.5 goals	8.4%	5.50BetVictor 2 Oct, 01:30
Under 4.5 goals	91.6%	1.18Betano 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — Yes	46.6%	1.65Betfair 2 Oct, 01:30
Both teams to score — No	53.4%	2.221xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or draw	66.6%	1.92Marathonbet 2 Oct, 01:30
Away or draw	61.7%	1.291xBet 2 Oct, 01:30
Home or away	71.7%	1.29William Hill 2 Oct, 01:30
Home team to concede	66.7%	—
Away team to concede	69.9%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

Spain · Segunda División15:15 UK

Sporting GijonVS

Celta de Vigo II

Not Started

Team-strength fallback · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home47.7%Odds 1.57

Draw27.5%Odds 4.33

Away24.8%Odds 6.00

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

40.0%

1.79PinnacleSnapshot 2 Oct, 01:42

Drifting · 1.78 → 1.79 same bookmaker · observed price change

What would £100 at 1.79 mean?

Potential return £179.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £79.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 55.9%. Model estimate: 40.0%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	47.7%	1.571xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Draw	27.5%	4.331xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Away win	24.8%	6.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 0.5 goals	89.8%	1.05Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 0.5 goals	10.2%	12.701xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 1.5 goals	66.6%	1.25Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 1.5 goals	33.4%	4.00Bet365 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 2.5 goals	40.0%	1.79Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 2.5 goals	60.0%	2.151xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 3.5 goals	19.7%	2.93Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 3.5 goals	80.3%	1.45Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 4.5 goals	8.2%	5.75BetVictor 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 4.5 goals	91.8%	1.18Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Both teams to score — Yes	44.6%	1.80William Hill 2 Oct, 01:42
Both teams to score — No	55.4%	1.98Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Home or draw	75.2%	1.16Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Away or draw	52.3%	2.47Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Home or away	72.5%	1.231xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Home team to concede	59.7%	—
Away team to concede	74.8%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →

Spain · Segunda División20:00 UK

GironaVS

Mallorca

Not Started

Kickoff Edge xG · pre-matchModel lean: Home win

Home40.0%Odds 2.28

Draw28.4%Odds 3.53

Away31.6%Odds 3.20

Selected marketOver 2.5 goals

39.9%

1.87BetfairSnapshot 2 Oct, 01:42

Price history is building · no earlier change recorded for this bookmaker.

What would £100 at 1.87 mean?

Potential return £187.00, including your £100 stake. Profit if it wins: £87.00. Loss if it loses: £100.

Break-even win rate: 53.5%. Model estimate: 39.9%. This estimate is uncertain; short odds do not make a bet safe.

All goal, BTTS & outcome markets +

Market	Estimate	Stored odds
Home win	40.0%	2.28Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:42
Draw	28.4%	3.531xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Away win	31.6%	3.20Bet365 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 0.5 goals	89.8%	1.06Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 0.5 goals	10.2%	11.401xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 1.5 goals	66.5%	1.28Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 1.5 goals	33.5%	3.85Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 2.5 goals	39.9%	1.87Betfair 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 2.5 goals	60.1%	2.061xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 3.5 goals	19.7%	3.16Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 3.5 goals	80.3%	1.40Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Over 4.5 goals	8.2%	6.12Pinnacle 2 Oct, 01:42
Under 4.5 goals	91.8%	1.15Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Both teams to score — Yes	46.1%	1.67William Hill 2 Oct, 01:42
Both teams to score — No	53.9%	2.191xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Home or draw	68.4%	1.38Betano 2 Oct, 01:42
Away or draw	60.0%	1.67SBO 2 Oct, 01:42
Home or away	71.6%	1.311xBet 2 Oct, 01:42
Home team to concede	65.3%	—
Away team to concede	70.6%	—

Calculated 2 Oct, 05:38 UKMatch centre →

Manual journal →